It’s been seven long months since the beginning of the most challenging NFL season in recent memory, and we’re finally at the moment of the big game. 32 teams started the season with Super Bowl hopes amid the COVID-19 pandemic, and it’s now down to two.
I’m Mike James and welcome to the final edition of Smooth’s NFL Football Picks for the 20-21 season.
All odds are courtesy of oddsshark.com
Sunday February 7
Super Bowl 55
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida
Tampa Bay vs. Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 3
Here are our selections on who we think has the most advantages starting with quarterbacks.
QB – For the Bucs, all you need to know is the name Tom Brady, and you have greatness. In the last 21 seasons, Brady has made it to the big game 10 times, and his record is currently 6 wins and 3 defeats, one against Philadelphia, the other two against the New York Football Giants. Brady gets his crack at another ring with a new team in Tampa Bay. This season has been solid for Brady, over 4,600 passing yards with 40 TD’s on the year. Not bad for a 43-year-old quarterback. For the Chiefs, the future is now with QB Patrick Mahomes. Four years into his career, Mahomes has already become the youngest quarterback to lead his team to a Super Bowl at the age of 25. His numbers were impressive. In 15 games, he’s thrown for over 4,700 yards and 38 TD’s. He’s already got the taste for a championship having won last year, and no doubt want another one. The NFL is a young man’s game, but seeing the ageless wonder in Brady, these two teams are at even.
Advantage: Even
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RB – Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the main back for the Chiefs. In his first season, he’s run for 803 yards out of the backfield and scored 4 TD’s on the year. He also has 1,100 total yards on the year. Le’Veon Bell was a nice pick up after being dropped by the Jets. He’s a stop-gap measure in case Edwards-Helaire is injured. Other RB’s are Anthony Sherman at Fullback, Darwin Thompson and Darrel Williams. For the Bucs, Ronald Jones II got most of the snaps for the year. He rushed for 978 yards and seven TD’s. Leonard Fournette was acquired early this season after being waived by Jacksonville. He’s come on during the playoffs, gaining 70.3 yards per game and scoring 2 TD’s. LeSean McCoy was a free agent pick up from Buffalo as the third back. CJ Prosise and rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn round out the rushing corps. Kansas City leads Tampa Bay in rushing, 112.4 to 94.9 yards per game. Give the edge to the Chiefs.
Advantage:
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Receivers – KC has two big targets in the air. One is TE Travis Kelce, who leads the team in receiving yards with over 1,400 and 11 TD’s on the year. WR Tyreek Hill is not too far with 1,276 yards and 15 TD’s, he leads the team in that category. Sammy Watkins is still a deep threat despite the lower numbers, and Mecole Hardman put in 560 yards and 4 TD’s on the year. The Bucs have their best receiver threat with Mike Evans. This year, he put in a little over 1,000 yards and led the team with 13 TD’s on the season. Tom Brady convinced Bucs management to sign troubled receiver Antonio Brown, and he managed to keep the pressure off Evans to make it much tougher for defenders. TE Rob Gronkowski was also convinced by Brady to come out of retirement and play for the Bucs. It was the right move, as he connected with Brady seven times for TD’s on the year. Chris Godwin, Tyler Johnson, and Scotty Miller are also deep threats for Brady. The Chiefs have the number one passing unit in the league, with the Bucs close by in 4th place. Give the edge, slightly to Kansas City.
Advantage:
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Offensive Line – Taking a look at the Chiefs offensive line, they are the main reason Mahomes has had so much time throwing, and why they are number one overall in the league in total yards with 425.3. Mahomes has only been sacked 22 times this season. As for the Bucs, their unit was ranked 11th in the league with 393.4 total yards. Brady has only been sacked 21 times on the year. Based on youth over experience, and Mahomes mobile ability to move the ball much more often, I give the edge to Kansas City.
Advantage:
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Defensive Line – Moving to defense, the Bucs have the number one rushing defense in the league giving up only 80 yards a game during the year. They run a 3-4 defensive scheme led on the defensive line by 11-year vet Ndamukong Suh. He had 6 sacks on the year. William Gholston is the other DE with Steve McLendon starting at DT. The Chiefs run a 4-3 defensive scheme, led by Chris Jones who leads the team in sacks with 7½. DE Frank Clark is second in sacks with 6. Rounding out the defensive line is DE Tan-oh
K-pas-sag-non and DT Derrick Nnadi. The Chiefs were ranked 21st against the run, giving the Bucs the edge in this category.
Advantage:
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Linebackers – For the Bucs, the initials JPP are familiar with longtime NY Giants fans. Jason-Pierre Paul worked hard to get back to Pro Bowl status after years of injuries. The 11-year vet led the team with 9½ sacks and made 55 tackles on the year. Devon White was right behind him with 9 sacks, along with Shaquil Barrett with 8 and Lavonte David with 117 tackles on the year. For the Chiefs, Damien Wilson, Anthony Hitchens and Willie Gay, Jr. are the defenders at linebacker. Hitchens had 78 tackles, Wilson not too far behind with 70. The Bucs were ranked 6th overall in total yards, while the Chiefs were ranked 16th. Once again, give the advantage to the Bucs.
Advantage:
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Secondary – The Chiefs are led by “The Honey Badger”. Safety Tyrann Mathieu led the team in interceptions with 6 on the season. The other safety Daniel Sorensen led the team in tackles with 91. The corners are patrolled by Chavarius Ward and Bashaud Breeland. For the Bucs, CB Carlton Davis III led the team in picks with four on the year. Safeties Antoine Winfield Jr. & Jordan Whitehead and CB Sean Murphy-Bunting have four INT’s total between them. On passing yards allowed, the Bucs were ranked 21st, while the Chiefs were ranked 14th, giving Kansas City the edge.
Advantage:
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Special Teams – Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker is 4-4 from 50+ yards on the season. His long is 58 yards. Overall, he is 25-27 on the year. However, on extra points, he’s 38-54. Punter Tommy Townsend has had 13 of his punts inside the 20 or less this season. Mecole Hardman has taken over duties as punt returner and does have a TD this season. Tyreek Hill also is used on kick returns. The Bucs have 12-year veteran kicker Ryan Succop. This year, he was 28-31 with only two attempts made from 50+ or more. His long was from 52 yards. Punter Bradley Pinion has averaged 45.2 yards per punt this season, with only 8 punts made inside 20 yards or less. Jaydon Mickensis is the punt and kick return specialist. His average was 21 yards per punt return on the year. Based on the better special teams play, give the edge to the Chiefs.
Advantage:
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Coaches – These are two veteran skippers with success where ever they’ve coached. For Bucs head coach Bruce Arians, the chance to lead a talented squad was too good to pass up. And when Tom Brady came calling, it all fell into place. The road his first Super Bowl wasn’t easy. There were question marks about the offense and whether Brady would have anything left in the tank, but it all worked out and now the Bucs have a chance to add another piece of hardware to the trophy case. For Andy Reid, years of success also meant years of heart break, having come close so many times with Philadelphia and in KC. But they finally made it to the top last season and in 2020, the Chiefs had their best season ever, going 14-2 on the year. Back-to-back Super Bowls would put Reid in position as a first ballot hall of famer in Canton. Call it even.
Advantage: Even
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Intangibles – “There’s no place like home.” That was the line in the 1939 MGM classic, ‘The Wizard of Oz”;and for the Bucs, home is where they will play on Sunday. Tampa Bay became the first team to host a Super Bowl in their own stadium, and when you’re working at home, like so many people are doing in this pandemic, you’re much more comfortable. Ironically, the state of Kansas is also where Dorothy is from, and the Chiefs play right next door in the state of Missouri. I think we know who Dorothy would be rooting for…rooting for the comforts of home. But unfortunately, that’s where the Bucs have the advantage and you don’t need to be wicked for that.
Advantage:
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Final Analysis – The line on this game from Vegas continues to hold steady at 3, with many analysts predicting a close battle with a last-second finish. Here’s some more numbers for you. Four of the Chiefs last nine victories have come by three points or less. A lot of people are picking the Bucs to win and that may well happen based on the way the defense has been playing. But here’s a wild card in all this, Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnolo. He’s beaten Tom Brady when he led the NY Giants defense in that massive upset verses the undefeated Patriots in Super Bowl 42. I suspect he will use the same strategy against Brady in this game. That leaves it all up to Patrick Mahomes to handing the Bucs defense. We picked the Chiefs as our preseason pick to win back-to-back Super Bowl titles back in September. But that all depended on their opponent. Right now, the Bucs defense is running on all cylinders, and that’s all Brady will need to get himself another ring on his finger.
This is our upset special!
Smooth’s Pick: Tampa Bay (31-20)
Now, with all of our picks, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. For gambling issues, go to gamblers anonymous dot org.
And that’s gonna do it for another season of Smooth’s NFL Football Picks. Thank you for joining us during the 20-21 season. We’ll have a recap on Super Bowl 55 including post game comments from both sides of the football. That will take place Monday morning at 8:30am eastern time with repeat broadcasts all day. Check our website for the exact times (9:30am, 10:30am, 11:30am and 3:30pm.).
If you miss out, you can always read our pick at smoothjazzandmore.com.
Thanks for listening, and we’ll see you later.