Smooth’s NFL Football Picks 2026 (Week 9 – Football in Spain…Not That Kind of Football!)

Week 9, and the NFL takes another trip across the pond this weekend to expand its international reach. We’ll tell you where the next stop will be, but first. Here’s how we did with our picks.

Last Week’s Results

Head-to-Head: 11-3
Against the Spread: 9-3-2

Season to Date

Head-to-Head: 76-44-1
Against the Spread: 52-44-24

Bye Week Teams: Tennessee and Pittsburgh

Thursday, November 5

Jacksonville at Baltimore
Line: Jags by 9½

Trevor Lawrence with 210 yards passing and three TD, the Jags defense put a hurt on Colts QBs with 4 sacks and two INTs, as they blow out Indianapolis 42-7. Bhashyul Tuten with a big day 159 total yards, including 104 yards rushing on 16 carries and two TDs on the day. The Jags head north to Baltimore on a short week, where the Ravens now have QB problems. Lamar Jackson hurt his throwing hand on the first play of the game against Buffalo. Backup Tyler Huntley replaced him, be he also left the game with a toe injury in the second quarter. That left head coach Jesse Minter to go to 3rd stringer Joe Fagnano, an undrafted rookie out of Maine and UConn with no NFL experience. Final stats, 10-21 for 91 yards passing, an INT and he was sacked 3 times. Baltimore falls to Buffalo, 36-10. Jackson will need surgery on his thumb. According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported according to a source that Jackson is “likely out for the season”, but Minter didn’t rule it out that option, yet. For now, the Ravens are walking on a tight rope. Even through they’re at home, the short week puts them at a distinct disadvantage. Without an established leader at QB, they’ll be relying more on the ground game, making themselves a sitting duck for the Jags defense. Which is why I favor Lawrence and company.

Smooth’s Pick: Jacksonville (33-14)

Sunday, November 8

Cincinnati at Atlanta
Game played in Madrid, Spain
Line: Bengals by 3½

The NFL returns to Spain for the second time. Even though European-style football rules, the NFL has a loyal following in Spain. Back in the early 90’s, the Barcelona Dragons were part of the World League of American Football and later NFL Europe. The game is scheduled to be a sellout at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, the home of La Liga’s Real Madrid. As for the matchups, Joe Burrow with 462 yards passing and 6 TDs, but he also threw 3 INT to Titans safety Amani Hooker. The Bengals barely squeaks by a determined Tennessee team in overtime, 43-36. Tee Higgins with two of those scores to go with 155 yards receiving. JaMarr Chase with 11 catches on 141 yards and a TD in the win. The Bengals will take on Atlanta, who had to deal with a bad storm on Sunday, which affected the whole game. The result was very few passing plays on both sides. Michael Penix Jr. with 4 INTs, as the dirty birds were shut out against Tampa Bay, 16-0. We’ll tell you how the Bucs were able to win the game without throwing a single pass reception later on in the broadcast. Weather was a big factor in the dirty birds loss. With a clearer field, they should bounce back. However, the Bengals defense will be tough to get by in the air, so they will have to have an evenly offensive game plan. It could be a high scoring matchup, but I like the Bengals to eke out the victory.

Smooth’s Pick: Cincinnati (34-27)

NY Giants at Philadelphia
Line: G-Men by 3½

Even though Big Blue didn’t play last weekend, they still were able to keep their NFC East lead on Dallas, Philadelphia and Washington. Both the Cowboys and Commanders trail the G-Men by two games; the Eagles are now 3½ games behind Big Blue in the loss column. With the trade deadline a few days away, there’s talk of getting a big time running back for the stretch run. Two names in the conversation are Jonathan Taylor at Indianapolis, and Derrick Henry in Baltimore. Taylor will likely require the “king’s ransom” in draft picks, but Henry could be a possibility. He’s 32 years old and played with coach Harbaugh. Whoever the brass upstairs decided to choose will signal an “all-in” for the division, and maybe even, the Super Bowl. The G-Men head down the New Jersey Turnpike to Philly to take on the Eagles. The Eagles have now lost six straight games for the first time since 2012, that was Andy Reid’s final season as head coach. The bleeding continues, as they fall to division rival Washington, 27-10. That 27 points were scored unanswered after a Jake Elliott FG and a Saquon Barkley 3-yd TD run. They are now 2-6 for the first time since 1999, that was Andy Reid’s first season as head coach. The G-Men can go for the kill shot. A win will likely end the Eagles playoff chances. So, they have to play mistake-free football. Late word is that the Eagles will be starting Joe Milton at QB. He was signed off the Dallas Cowboys practice few weeks after the injury to Jalen Hurts. With a new QB, Big Blue’s rushing defense will have to find a way to rattle Milton. They also have to find a way to stop Saquon Barkley. If they can do those three things, they can win this game.

Smooth’s Pick: NY Giants (28-17)

Dallas at Indianapolis
Line: Cowboys by 5½

As I mentioned, Cowboys fans were pretty cocky two weeks ago after an easy win against Philadelphia. Well, that cockiness has turned into humble pie, as Dallas blew a 14-point lead against Arizona in the 4th quarter. They lose to the Cardinals in OT, 33-30. Dak Prescott with 195 yards passing and 2 TDs, one passing, one rushing. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones was clearly angry in his luxury box after seeing his team collapse. I’m sure he’s looking at some radical changes in the next few weeks. They head to Indianapolis, where Colts head coach Shane Steichen offered a vote of confidence for his QB Daniel Jones prior to Sunday’s game against Jacksonville. It didn’t take long for Jones to make his coach regret that decision. He threw 2 INTs and was benched in favor of Anthony Richardson as they fell to the Jags. Richardson hadn’t seen action since week 5 of the 2025 season. This is another opportunity to get in the win column for the Cowboys, but it’s all gonna come down to their defense in late game situations. We don’t know which Daniel Jones will show up, or if he’s gonna be benched. Either way, I like the Cowboys to win, but let the better beware.

Smooth’s Pick: Dallas (31-16)

NY Jets at Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 9½

Gang Green scored on their first six possessions on Sunday, but their defense wasn’t enough to stop Las Vegas, as they fall to the Raiders, 38-33. The loss overshadowed Brealon Allen’s 147-yard rushing and 1 TD day. Geno Smith with 290 yards passing and 2 TDs, Adonai Mitchell with 140 yards receiving and a score in the loss. They head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes led his team down to the Denver 6-yard line on a late game scoring attempt. But on 4th down with only 4 seconds remaining, he would get sacked by the Bronco’s defense. Denver would hang on to a 28-24 win over the Chiefs. Mahomes with 321 yards passing and 3 TDs, Emmett Johnson with 5 catches for 128 yards, 187 yards total, and a TD in the loss. KC loses their 2nd in a row after starting the season at 5-0. Gang Green’s defense let their coach down, as they could have won against a weaker opponent. They’re going to have their hands full, as KC looks to get back in the win column after a tough two game stretch. I like their chances to break the streak this weekend.

This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick: Kansas City (32-12)

Detroit at Miami
Line: Lions by 7½

The Lions finally cracked the code on the Minnesota defense, as Jahmyr Gibbs with a big day on the ground, 153 yards rushing, 168 total and a TD. Jameson Williams also with a TD as Detroit drops Minnesota from the ranks of the unbeaten, 19-15. However, it was also a costly win, as Lions LB Jack Campbell was taken off the field in on a cart after an apparent neck injury. Just one of the dangers of playing in this sport. The pride head to South Florida to take on Miami, who took New England to the edge on Sunday. The Fish got out to a 13-3 lead by halftime, thanks to a Malik Willis to Malik Washington TD pass and two Zane Gonzales FGs. But in the end, the defense let them down with three straight TDs by the Patriots. Wilis would end the day with 212 yards passing and 2 TDs in the loss. The effort by the fish gives them hope down the stretch run. However, the Lions offense is just as good as New England. Any hope for an upset will ride on the home crowd, and a way to stop the Lions offense.

Smooth’s Pick: Detroit (24-19)

Cleveland at New Orleans
Line: Saints by 2½

Dashaun Watson connected with Harold Fanin 10 times for 153 yards receiving, but none of that resulted in a TD reception. Watson was also sacked 8 times in the loss to Pittsburgh. They lose their edge in the AFC North falling a half game behind the Steelers at 5-2. They head to the big easy to take on the Saints who were on a bye week. At 2-5, they’ve shown flashes of offense, but have struggled to put together four complete quarters. The defense has its own problems. Injuries have also complicated the coaching staff’s plans. One issue stands above the rest. though, is that New Orleans cannot run the football consistently. Alvin Kamara has averaged just 3.0 yards per carry. Kendre Miller has managed only 2.8. Whether they fixed that issue at the trade deadline will be all up to head coach Kellen Moore and the Saints top brass to figure out. The Browns will be without Watson this week, as he was placed in the concussion protocol, which means Shadeur Sanders will get the start on Sunday. With the Saints well rested after two weeks, I expect the defense to give him some trouble.

Smooth’s Pick: New Orleans (21-16)

LA Rams at Washington
Line: Rams by 5½

It was a battle for bragging rights to Tinseltown. The Rams got off to a slow start against the Chargers, falling behind, 9-3. But Kyren Williams’ TD run started a 21-point bloodbath, as they beat the Bolts, 24-9. Matthew Stafford finished the game 17-of-25 passing for 157 yards. Williams and Blake Corum each ran for scores as the Rams climb to .500 for the first time this season. The Rams head to the nation’s capital to take on the Commanders. The Washington defense sacked Tanner McKee three times and got an INT off him, as well. Jayden Daniels with 217 yards passing and a TD to Stefon Diggs. Rashad White also with a TD as they pounded Philadelphia in the second half for the win on Sunday night. With both teams struggling for playoff position, this game could determine which direction they’re going, and whether they’ll need to pull the trigger at the trade deadline. As much as they’ve struggled all season, I still like LA to come out ahead.

Smooth’s Pick: LA Rams (26-21)

Denver at Carolina
Line: Broncos by 2½

Bo Nix went 20-32 for 222 yards receiving and 2 TDs, including one to Nate Adkins from 2-yards in the 4th quarter. Jonah Coleman with a 5-yard TD run to give the Broncos the lead, and the defense stopped Kansas City’s final drive to clinch the win and take over the AFC West lead at 6-2. They head to Charlotte to take on the Panthers, where Bryce Young was swarmed by the Green Bay defense getting sacked 6 times. He would find Jalen Coker for a 26-yard TD pass in the 4th quarter, but that would be all she wrote, as Carolina falls to Green Bay, 27-19. Chubba Hubbard with 119 total yards and a score in the loss. The Broncos go for their 5th straight victory this Sunday. However, the Panthers had a long layoff after last Thursday night, and there could be key bodies coming back in Week 9. Most notably, help of the offensive line. With that, I actually like their chances for an upset.

This is my upset special!
Smooth’s Pick: Carolina (23-21)

Houston at LA Chargers
Line: Texans by 4½

The Texans entered the bye week at 2-5 following Week 8. That has them in second place in the AFC South, three games behind division leading Jacksonville. In a reversal from last season, it is the defense that is holding the team back. They’re allowing 24 points per game (18th in NFL). That’s a big change from last season, when they allowed only 17 points a game (2nd in NFL). The ground game is also suspect. That was supposed to be fixed when they signed free agent David Montgomery during the off-season. But outside of a three-touchdown performance in Week 1, Montgomery has been largely ineffective. Across five games this season, he has taken the ball 52 times for only 138 yards for a putrid 2.7 yards per carry. They head to LA to take on the Bolts. Head coach Jim Harbaugh has been in this situation with before. The last time they were 0-7, he was the QB and the team was in San Diego in 2000. The Bolts continue with the same problems on offense, and now questions arise about the future of Justin Herbert. Is he still a top tier QB? Herbert completed 24-of-32 passes for 257 yards. But he also had two killer INTs — his ninth and 10th on the season — that led to 10 Rams points. He’s thrown a pick in each of his seven games this season, which has happened only one other time since the 2000 season. Another loss, and we could see a quick end to the Jim Harbaugh era. With a desperate Texans team coming into town, getting a win has no guarantees, but I do think the skid will end this Sunday.

Smooth’s Pick: LA Chargers (22-18)

Green Bay at New England
Line: Patriots by 2½

As we mentioned the Packers defense pounded Bryce Young 6 times for sacks. They also had an INT in the win against Carolina. Christian Watson left the game with a cracked rib, but he returned to finish the game with 8 catches for 113 yards on Thursday night. Josh Jacobs with a rushing score and a TD reception, Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft also had TDs in the win. The Pack head to Foxborough to take on the Patriots. Another slow start for Drake Maye, but he caught his composure and led his team 21-6 run in the second have for the win over Miami. Maye ended his day 16-20 for 199 yards passing and 3 TDs. The Pats defense also sacked Malik Willis 4 times on the day. The Packers get some big news as Michah Parsons was able to practice for the first time in 11 months, he was on the shelf after a season ending torn ACL. However, he won’t be eligible to return to action this weekend. They could really use him against a tough Pats offense. Overall, I like the Pats to take this one.

Smooth’s Pick: New England (24-21)

Las Vegas at San Francisco
Line: 49ers by 9½

TE Brock Bowers made history, as he became the first player at his position to have 70+ receiving yards in each of his first six games of a season. He finished the day with 7 catches on 92 yards and two TDs as the Silver and Black beat the Jets and snap a four-game losing skid. Kirk Cousins threw for three scores and rushed in another in the victory. They head to Santa Clara to play their former neighbors from across the bay. The 49ers are coming off a bye week, and are on the top of the NFC West. They got off to a quick 6-0 start, but fell to Atlanta during week 7. Their schedule looks daunting for the second half, including matchups against Dallas, the Giants, Kansas City and Minnesota; along with the three divisional games. Not an easy stretch for the niners, so this is a must win for them. With the injuries continuing to pile up that makes it even tougher. Still, I think Brock Purdy and company should be able to get a win against their former bay area rivals.

Smooth’s Pick: San Francisco (27-20)

Arizona at Seattle
Line: Seahawks by 10½

Jacoby Brissett was ineffective against Dallas, with an INT and four sacks. Cards head coach Mike LeFleur benched Brissett in favor of veteran play caller Gardiner Minshew. That set off a spark in the 4th quarter as they scored 20 points, including a 13-yard pass to Michael Wilson to tie the game at 30-all. Chad Ryland with a 42-yard walk-off winner for Arizona. This week, Minshew was named the starter the rest of the season. With that decision, Brissett was traded to Baltimore, as the Ravens were in need of an experienced veteran at QB. They head to the emerald city to take on division rival, Seattle. The defense only gave up 17 points per game over the last 7. But on Monday night, they got hammered, giving up 21 points in the second half alone. They fall to Chicago, 34-17. Not a good night for the Seattle run game, as no one rushed for more than 30 yards in the loss. Late word is that Sam Darnold will be inactive this Sunday because of an injured quad. The point spread will likely come down with Drew Lock in a QB. Despite the upset win by the Cards, and the horrible performance on Monday night, I still think the Seahawks will come out on top.

Smooth’s Pick: Seattle (19-17)

Tampa Bay at Chicago
Line: Bears by 5½

The Bucs were able to do something that hasn’t been done in more than 60 years. Baker Mayfield didn’t register a single passing yard completion in the win against Atlanta. Technically they finished with -2 passing yards as Mayfield was sacked for a 2-yard loss. However, the Bucs generated 321 yards of offense, all of it coming on a very muddy, soggy gridiron. Bucky Irving with 170 yards and the game’s lone TD, Kenny Gainwell added another 140 yards rushing on 25 attempts. They head to the windy city to take on the Bears. They went into Seattle and man-handled the top defense in the NFL for 34 points on Monday night. D’Andre Swift with 3 TDs as Chicago beats the Seahawks. All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons made his debut for the Bears after a blockbuster trade from the Tennessee Titans last week. The Bears paid a hefty price for Simmons, sending a package that included two first-round picks for the star. In the game, he contributed in the Bears win with a sack. A dryer play surface will come in handy for the Bucs, but against the surging Bears, trying to get their passing game back in order could come with a price. With that, I like the Bears on Sunday night.

Smooth’s Pick: Chicago (34-17)

Monday, November 9

Buffalo at Minnesota
Line: Bills by 2½

Josh Allen passed Jim Kelly for the most TD passes in Buffalo Bills history. He was 21-34 for 289 yards passing and 3 TDs in the win against Baltimore. James Cook with 101 total yards and a TD. The Bills defense finally showed up, getting three sacks, and an INT and holding the Ravens to just 144 Total yards on the day. They head to Minneapolis, where the 1972 Miami Dolphins can breathe a sigh of relief, as their undefeated streak will stand alone for at least another year. Offensive woes were still the story of the Vikings against Detroit last Sunday. Kyler Murray did throw for two TDs, but they were only 30% percent on third down conversions all game long, and they only had possession for only 24 minutes compared to the Lions’ 35 minutes. The Vikings defense will be a big challenge for Josh Allen and company. If they can control the tempo from the get-go, that should be able to quiet the crowd at US Bank stadium. De determining factor will be the Minnesota offense. If they don’t score in the red zone, they’re as good as done. Which is why I’m picking the Bills to win on Monday night.

Smooth’s Pick: Buffalo (24-15)

Smooth’s NFL Football Picks EXTRA POINT: NY Giants 2026 Mid-Season Report

Seven games into the 2026 season, the New York Giants have become one of the NFL’s biggest surprises.

After winning just four games a year ago, the G-Men sit at 4-2-and-1 and lead the NFC East, already matching last season’s win total before November. That’s a remarkable turnaround under first-year head coach John Harbaugh.

The season started with an impressive win over Dallas. But the optimism took a major hit in Week Two, when franchise quarterback Jaxson Dart suffered a season-ending knee injury. The former first-round pick was expected to lead Big Blue into a new era, but his season was cut short after just two games.

The bad news didn’t stop there.

Just weeks later, All-Pro pass rusher Brian Burns was lost for the year with a torn ACL. Burns was the centerpiece of the Giants’ pass rush and one of the most disruptive defensive players in football.

Then came another devastating blow last week when veteran linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, one of the team’s biggest offseason acquisitions, suffered a season-ending injury. Edmunds had been playing every defensive snap and was emerging as one of the leaders of the defense.

For many teams, losing a starting quarterback and two defensive stars would derail the season.

Instead, the G-Men adapted.

The biggest move came with the acquisition of quarterback J.J. McCarthy from Minnesota to stabilize the position following Dart’s injury. Brought into action after a poor showing by Jameis Winston against New Orleans, and he delivered immediately, injecting life into the offense. Over the last two games, he’s displayed confidence, poise, and the ability to extend plays, helping keep the Giants atop the division.

His arrival has changed the conversation around this football team. Rather than simply trying to survive injuries, the Giants are continuing to compete for first place.

That resilience was on full display in Houston during Week Seven. The Giants battled the Texans into overtime before securing a 27-21 victory, another example of a team finding ways to win despite significant adversity.

The schedule only gets tougher from here. They have the Eagles in Philly during week 9, then a rematch at home against Washington. Then it’s Jacksonville and Indianapolis, then two tough matchups against San Francisco and Seattle. Their final four games will be against Cleveland, Detroit, Dallas and then close out the season at home against Philly.

The playoffs are within reach, but there are questions still remain about whether this roster has enough depth to overcome the injuries that have piled up.

But after seven games, one thing is clear.

The G-Men aren’t talking about rebuilding anymore. Behind John Harbaugh’s leadership, a resilient locker room, and the emergence of J.J. McCarthy at quarterback, Big Blue has transformed itself from a four-win team into a legitimate playoff contender and one of the NFL’s best turnaround stories of 2026.

Let’s hope the winning ways continues.

 

The New York Football Giants are the official NFL team of Smooth Jazz and More.

Smooth’s NFL Football Picks 2026 (Week 8 – …and then there was one!)

Week 8, and we have only one undefeated team left in the NFL. Will they continue their winning ways? Or will they continue to challenge the undefeated streak of the 1972 Miami Dolphins? I’ll tell you what I think will happen. But first, here’s how we did during week 7.

Last Week’s Results

Head-to-Head: 8-6
Against the Spread: 4-6-4

Season to Date

Head-to-Head: 65-41-1
Against the Spread: 43-41-22

Bye Week Teams: Houston, New Orleans, San Francisco, NY Giants

Speaking of the G-Men, we will have our mid-season report with the good, the bad and the ugly on how they’re doing so far this season, and we’ll assess their chances the rest of the way. That’s coming up right after our picks for week 8.

Let’s get to them, shall we?

Thursday, October 29

Carolina at Green Bay
Line: Packers by 4½

A sluggish game for Carolina, as they fell behind 17-0 early against Tampa Bay. They would get on the board with a 50-yard TD pass from Bryce Young to Darren Waller. However, the extra-point attempt was blocked and the ball was returned 68 yards the other way to give the Bucs a rare defensive 2-point conversion. It was that kind of day for the Panthers, as fall to Tampa Bay, 43-13. Young was sacked 5 times, he also turned the ball over three times, including one that was returned for a Bucs TD. They climb to 2-5 on the season. They head to Lambeau Field to take on the Packers. As expected, their game against Detroit was fierce and competitive. Both teams traded scoring drives, and the defense of both teams came up with huge plays. It would all come down to the game’s final seconds. That’s when the Lions would win it on a walk-off FG with no time left on the clock, 20-17 was the final. Jordan Love with 274 yards passing and 2 TDs for the day. Josh Jacobs made his season debut after returning from a league suspension. He had 91 total yards and a TD in the loss. The Pack falls to 4-3 on the year. With both teams slumping, they can ill afford to drop any more games. More so for the Panthers, who are in a tight battle in the NFC South. However, I think the bounce back on a short week goes to the Packers.

Smooth’s Pick: Green Bay (26-19)

Sunday, November 1

Baltimore at Buffalo
Line: Bills by 3½

No Lamar Jackson for the second straight week meant trouble for the Ravens on Sunday. It started off well, with a Tyler Huntley TD pass to Zay Flowers and two Tyler Loop FGs. But then the bottom fell out and they got were shut out in the 2nd half. They fall to the Bengals at home, 35-13. Final numbers for Flowers, 8 catches for 137 yards receiving and that score. Huntley was sacked 4 times in the loss. They fly to Western NY to take on the Bills, who are coming off a bye week. Buffalo has an intriguing schedule coming up in the next four weeks, including games against Baltimore this week, Minnesota, the Jets and Miami. Defense has been a major issue for the Bills, and despite the lack of Jackson in the starting lineup, the Ravens can still rely on Derick Henry to slow things down on the ground. Still, I like the Bills to at least come out on top in a close game.

Smooth’s Pick: Buffalo (31-27)

Tennessee at Cincinnati
Line: Bengals by 10½

Tony Pollard with a big day on the ground, 25 carries for 129 yards rushing and 3 TDs including the game tying score in the 4th. But they would fall on a walk-off FG to Cleveland 27-24 was the final. They head to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. As we mentioned, Cincinnati was down 13-0 at halftime, but Joe Burrow and company exploded for 35 unanswered points as they cruised to victory over Baltimore. Burrow with 292 yards passing and 4 TDs, Tee Higgins led all receivers in yardage with 148 and that score on the day. JaMarr Chase Drew, Sample and Mike Gesicki each with TD passes in the win. It was a spirited effort for the Titans to try to get a second consecutive win, and it almost happened last weekend. But against the Bengals defense, their chances to get win no. 2 may be tough to go by.

Smooth’s Pick: Cincinnati (26-14)

Arizona at Dallas
Line: Cowboys by 6½

Here’s a wild stat. Ever since State Farm Stadium hosted that Charlie Kirk memorial last year, the Cardinals haven’t won a regular season game. The losing streak at home now reaches 10 straight, as they fall to Denver, 30-16. Jacoby Brissett found Trey McBride for the only TD by the Cardinals in the game. Chad Ryland with 3 FG for Arizona in the loss. They head to the Metroplex to take on the Cowboys. They took advantage of an injury depleted Philadelphia Eagles squad, and chopped them up in pieces. Dak Prescott threw three TD passes, two of those to CeeDee Lamb, they break a two-game losing streak with a 38-21 win. Cowboys fans continue to be delusional about their Super Bowl hopes after knocking off vulnerable Philly on Monday night. That’s why it wouldn’t surprise me if there was a let down this Sunday. Not saying it will happen, but it will all depend on if the Cardinals defense can neutralize Dak Prescott and company.

Smooth’s Pick: Dallas (25-23)

Minnesota at Detroit
Line: Lions by 3½

As we mentioned, the Vikings are the only undefeated team left standing in the NFL this week. But the games they’ve won have been ugly. That including their 16-10 win over Indianapolis. Offense has been the issue for Minnesota, as they haven’t been consistent. Kyler Murray found T.J. Hockensen for a 5-yard TD reception in the 4th quarter to give the Vikings the lead for good. They head to the motor city to take on the Lions, who as we mentioned earlier were in a knock-down, drag out fight with Green Bay last Sunday. Jared Goff with 303 yards passing and two TDs, each going to Jameson Williams. Amon-Ra St. Brown with 9 catches for 153 yards on the day. The walk-off winner from Jake Bates was the game winner for Detroit over Green Bay. The Vikings need to find ways to get into the end zone, but against the Lions, that will be a tough task. In the end, I think the Lions can break the Vikings unbeaten streak.

Smooth’s Pick: Detroit (21-18)

Las Vegas at NY Jets
Line: Gang Green by 1½

It wasn’t a good start for the Silver and Black, as the Rams went off on a 28-6 onslaught. They did mount a comeback in the 4th quarter, but LA shut the door, winning 35-21. Tre Tucker and Ashton Jeanty with TD receptions in the loss. They head to the Meadowlands to take on the Jets. They were down 21-7 after the end of the first half. They were able to mount a comeback scoring 18 points, but they too fell short, losing to Miami, 28-25. Geno Smith with 287 yards passing and 3 TDs. Mason Taylor with two of those scores, Braelon Allen rushed for 104 yards in the losing effort. This will be a big test for Gang Green to get the “W”. The Raiders have been hot and cold at times this season, and if the Jets can get off to a fast start, they might be able to take this game. However, I see the Silver and Black sneaking out of New Jersey with an unlikely victory.

Smooth’s Pick: Las Vegas (27-21)

Cleveland at Pittsburgh
line: Steelers by 3½

The Browns were down 14-0 in the 1st quarter. That’s when Quinshon Judkins scored two TD runs to tie the game in the 2nd. Andre Szmyt’s FG would give Cleveland the lead heading into the locker room. Then after a see-saw battle in the 2nd half. Szmyt would kick his second walk-off FG to give Cleveland the win over Tennessee. The head to the steel city where they could do something, they haven’t done since 1988, and that’s sweep the Steelers in the regular season. They already beat the steelers in Cleveland during week 2. Pittsburgh made their trip to Paris memorable, as their defense forces a key turnover, and limits the Saints to just 10 points in a tight win over New Orleans, 16-10. With the win, the Steelers moved to 5-2 on the season, and makes this AFC North matchup all the more intriguing. The Browns defense has been a big reason for their success. But they still have to score the points, which is why I think this time around, the Steelers will have the advantage at home.

Smooth’s Pick: Pittsburgh (24-16)

Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Line: Bucs by 1½

The dirty birds trailed at the half against San Francisco, but TD passes from Michael Penix Jr. to Kyle Pitts and Drake London and a FG by Nick Folk late gave them a 29-20 win over the 49ers. Penix would end his day with 213 yards passing and 3 TDs. The Niners head into the bye losing Christian McCaffrey with a thigh injury. His status will be re-evaluated next week. The dirty birds head to Tampa for an NFC South matchup with the Bucs. Baker Mayfield returned to action, but didn’t throw much, as he was fitted with a specially made glove to protect his injured thumb. He did throw a TD pass to Tez Johnson, and Bucky Irving rushed for 106 yards and a TD in the win over Carolina for their 2nd victory of the season. And it was a much-needed win for the Bucs, as they were treading on water the first 5 games of the year. Getting Mayfield back was a plus, but they now have to get the rest of their defense together against a tough run game. Which is why I favor the dirty birds in this matchup.

Smooth’s Pick: Atlanta (28-16)

Indianapolis at Jacksonville
Line: Jags by 7½

Jonathan Taylor got the scoring going for Indianapolis with a 38-yard TD run in the first quarter. He would end the day with 11 rushes for 95 yards and that score. But after a Spencer Shrader FG to give the Colts the lead at the half, their offense went AWOL. Daniel Jones with another disappointing showing, only 108 yards passing, and INT and he was sacked 4 times in the loss to Minnesota. They head to North Florida to take on the Jags who are coming off a bye week, and find themselves with a great opportunity. All three teams within the division lost last Sunday, and now they have a chance to solidify the AFC South with the way things are shaping up. In the next six games, the Jags face Tennessee twice and this week against Indianapolis. With the way things are happening with the Colts this season, I think this game will be a given.

This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick: Jacksonville (38-17)

LA Chargers at LA Rams
Line: Rams by 7½

The Bolts are coming off a bye with and a lot of questions being asked. Like what is wrong with their offense? What’s going on with Justin Herbert? Will Jim Harbaugh last the rest of the season? On thing is certain, this team is too talented to go 0-16. Some how they’re going to have to get out of this funk. They’ll have their chance to get into the win column against a team that has slumped of late. They’ll take on the Rams in a grudge match for supremacy in the city of angels. Little work in the air for Matthew Stafford, only 195 yards passing, but he did throw 3 TDs in a much-needed win for the Rams over Las Vegas. They’re now 3-4 on the season. The two weeks rest will be a big plus for the Bolts, but the Rams still have the edge with the better offense. Which is why I like them to continue the Bolts futility.

Smooth’s Pick: LA Rams (27-16)

Kansas City at Denver
Line: Chiefs by 1½

The Chiefs offense ran into a buzzsaw in Seattle, as they only managed a FG all night. Keneth Walker was shut down by his old team, rushing for only 36 yards. KC falls from the unbeaten ranks with a 20-3 shellacking by the Seahawks. Patrick Mahomes was 19-33 for only 165 yards passing and an INT in the loss. They head to mile high city to take on the Broncos. Bo Nix with the longest run of his pro career, as he rushed 62 yards for a TD. That was just part of the offensive power the Broncos did in the win over Arizona. Nix with 296 total yards from scrimmage and two TDs in the victory. Eventually, the Chiefs offense was going to be exposed, and it happened against one of the top defenses in the league. The Broncos defense is just as effective and will give Mahomes trouble. But the key will be whether Walker will have a bounce back game. None the less, this game will be a tough AFC West battle that should come down to the final play.

This is my upset special!
Smooth’s Pick: Denver (21-19)

New England at Miami
Line: Patriots by 7½

Drake Maye with 347 total yards and 3 TDs, one of those was a 7-yards TD run, but the Patriots come up short against Chicago, 30-24. Lots of pressure by the New England defense with three sacks, but not enough to get them over the finish line. They head to south Florida to take on the Dolphins. Malik Willis with 208 yards with two touchdowns. The defense held off a late rally by the Jets to win their first game of the season. Ollie Gordon with 103 yards rushing on 25 carries and a TD. Caleb Douglas with 2 catches for two TDs including one from 63 yards. The Fish’s offense finally showed signs of life, but they’re going to find more trouble against the Pats defense. Being at home will be a plus for them, but I still think Maye and company will come out on top.

Smooth’s Pick: New England (31-17)

Philadelphia at Washington
Line: Commanders by 4½

The slide continues for the Eagles, as they lose their 5th game in a row, this time at home against Dallas. A better game for Tanner McKee, who will be in at QB the rest of the season for Jalen Hurts, 23-35 for 211 yards passing, a TD and an INT. Saquon Barkley returned to action after a pulled hamstring, only 67 yards rushing, but did score a TD in the loss. They head to the nation’s capital to take on the Commanders who were on a bye week. They’re going to have an empty space at receiver as they lost Terry McLaurin to a season ending torn left patellar tendon. Stefon Diggs, Treylon Burks and rookie Antonio Williams are expected to be the team’s starting receiving trio moving forward. Jayden Daniels should be at 100% percent after two weeks of recovery on his injured non-throwing elbow. The Commanders can do some damage this weekend against the bruised and battered Eagles, and it would not surprise me if this ends up being a serious blow out on national television this Sunday night.

Smooth’s Pick: Washington (33-19)

Monday, November 2

Chicago at Seattle
Line: Seahawks by 4½

Caleb Williams out dueled Drake Maye, as he threw for 308 yards and two TDs. Luther Burden with a big night, 4 catches for 130 yards receiving including a 24-yard TD reception, as they beat New England. D’Andre Swift also found the end zone with a TD run in the win. They head to the Emerald City for a Monday night matchup against the Seahawks. The defense was running on all four cylinders, as they completely shut down the Kansas City offense, giving up just a FG. Jaxson Smith-Njigba with another big night, 9 catches for 150 yards and a TD, that puts him at 867 for the season in only seven games played. He’s on pace for at least 1,900 receiving on the year. This is the marquee matchup of the week, and it will appropriately be on Monday night football. At 4-3, this game means a lot to Seattle, as they are two games behind division leading San Francisco. Chicago is also playing catchup behind Minnesota with two wins in the loss column. I see this game as a real battle in the trenches, and it will all come down to who makes the mistake that costs the team the victory.

Smooth’s Pick: Seattle (23-21)

And that’s Smooth’s NFL Football Picks for week 8. Coming up, our mid-season evaluation on the New York Giants.

Smooth’s NFL Football Picks 2026 (Week 7 – Football in Paris is Always a Good Idea)

Week 7 – There are still three teams undefeated after week 6, and one team is alone without a win. We’ll tell you more about it. But first, here’s how we did with our picks.

Last Week’s Results

Head-to-Head: 7-7
Against the Spread: 6-7-1

Season to Date

Head-to-Head: 57-35-1
Against the Spread: 39-35-18

Bye Week Teams: Buffalo, Jacksonville, LA Chargers, and Washington

Thursday, October 22

New England at Chicago
Line: Bears by 3½

Drake Maye continues his hot hand at QB, as he threw for 235 yards and 3 TDs in the 26-19 win over the Jets. DeMario Douglas, Hunter Henry and Romeo Doubs each with TD catches. AJ Brown returned to action after four weeks on IR. He had 3 catches for 27 yards on the day. The Patriots head to the windy city to take on the Bears on the short week, where Caleb Williams made his return to action after two weeks out with a pulled hamstring. He threw for 305 yards and a TD in the 31-23 win over Atlanta. D’Andre Swift with two rushing TDs, along with a score by Roschon Johnson who led the team in rushing with 51 yards on the day. The Patriots seem to getting back to business, but I think the Bears will give Maye more pressure than in week’s pass. It will be a tough fight, though.

Smooth’s Pick: Chicago (25-23)

Sunday, October 25

Pittsburgh vs. New Orleans
This game will be played in Paris, France
Line: Steelers by 2½

The NFL makes its first appearance in city of lights, in its effort expand its blue print into Europe. The Steelers trailed at halftime against Tampa Bay, 13-3. They would rally in the 4th quarter with a 5-yard TD pass from Aaron Rodgers to Darnell Washington, then three FGs by Chris Boswell would give them the lead by a FG. Chase McLaughlin would tie it on a 53-yarder to send the game into OT. Rodgers would find Germie Bernard for the go-ahead TD. The Bucs got one more chance to win, but Jalen Ramsey would sack Jalon Daniels on 4th down to seal the win, 26-19 was the final. They take on New Orleans at the Stade de France. The Saints didn’t start their game off well with the Giants. But they were given a gift with less than two minutes to go after a fumble by the Giants special teams. Tyler Shough finds Bryce Lance to tie the game at halftime. They would go on to score 31 points, before Big Blue could respond. They hang on after a late rally in the 4th quarter, beating the Giants 34-27. Alvin Kamara joins 5 other players to have 5,000 yards rushing and 5,000 yards receiving in his career after a 31-yard TD reception. Giving up 17 points in 5 minutes should be of great concern for the Saints, as the Steelers have a better offense than the Giants. Which is why I think the Steelers have a better chance to win. However this will also be a close contest.

Smooth’s Pick: Pittsburgh (27-24)

NY Giants at Houston
Line: Texans by 9½

Taking another look at that almost miraculous comeback by the G-Men. Big Blue had all kinds of opportunities to win their game against New Orleans last Sunday. They controlled the tempo until after the two-minute warning. That’s when Charlie Jones fumbled the ball on his kick return. The Saints would then go on a tirade, scoring 31 points before they could respond. Jameis Winston was horrible. Despite a TD pass to Tyrone Tracy early, he would give up 2 INTs and was largely ineffective getting sacked 4 times. Head coach John Harbaugh would switch to J.J. McCarthy in relief. After an INT of his own, he would throw for 243 yards all in the 4th quarter. He would find Isaiah Likely for a TD pass, and get a rushing TD from Tracy, his 2nd of the game. They would convert a 2-pt play and get a 41-yard FG from Dominik Zvada to put them in position to tie the ball game with 57 seconds to go in regulation. After a three and out by the Saints, McCarthy would lead his team down to the New Orleans 14-yard line. But a pass on 4th down intended for Likely would sail just over his head to seal the Saints win. The good news in all this? They still maintain a game and a half game lead on Dallas, Philly and Washington in the NFC East who all lost last weekend. The G-Men head deep in the heart of Texas for a game against Houston. It was a shootout in London, where CJ Stroud and Trevor Lawrence traded TD passes. Stroud with 312 yards passing and three scores. Lawrence with 306 yards passing and 4 TDs. Ultimately it would be special teams that would determine the victor. Kai’mi Fairbain would kick a 49-yard walk off FG to give the Texans the victory, 34-31. They are now 2-4 on the season. This is a tough matchup for the G-Men on the road, and their biggest concern should be the mobility of CJ Stroud. If they can neutralize him and have him throw more often, they have a chance to win this game. But ultimately, the game will all depend on who starts at QB. This is just too much of a mountain to climb, and I think the Texans at home may be too much to reach for. I hope I’m wrong.

Smooth’s Pick: Houston (31-23)

San Francisco at Atlanta
Line: 49ers by 3½

The Niners got out to a 20-3 lead with a TD reception from Brock Purdy to George Kittle and 2 TD’s by Christian McCaffery. However, they would let Washington right back in the game in the second half, only getting a FG from Eddy Piniero. Two TDs by Jayden Daniels to Stefon Diggs and Rashaad White would keep it close, but the defense did just enough to secure a 23-17 win and stay perfect at 6-0. It was a devastating loss for the Commanders, as they also lose to receiver Terry McLaurin for the season with a torn ACL. They go on a bye week, while Niners head to the ATL to take on the Falcons. Not a good start for the Dirty Birds, they trailed Chicago 14-0, before a 19-yard TD pass from Michael Penix, Jr. to Jahan Dotson would cut the lead in half. The Bears would then go on a tear scoring 17 points in a row to make it 31-7. They would cut the lead to 8 with two TD passes Penix to Kyle Pitts in the 4th quarter. They would fall to Chicago, and also fall to 2-4 on the season. This very well may be the Niners toughest game so far this year, as the Atlanta run game has been stellar. The key will be defense and which one will be able to get the least about of yardage. As much as I think of this game as a trap, I like the Niners to come out ahead.

Smooth’s Pick: San Francisco (21-18)

Cleveland at Tennessee
Line: Browns by 1½

Browns fans finally have something to cheer about this season, as Cleveland is on top of the AFC North this week and they can thank their defense for making it happen. After a quick 10-0 score, they stopped the Baltimore offense dead in their tracks with 3 sacks on Tyler Huntley. They get a 48-yard FG from Andre Szmyt in the 3rd quarter, then Audric Estime scores a 2-yard TD run to tie the game. Szmyt would then kick a 37-yard FG to give the Browns the win, 13-10. They head to Nashville to take on the Titans, who got in the win column for the first time this season. It was looking like another loss was in the books for Tennessee against Indianapolis last Sunday. But they erased a 13-point deficit in the 4th quarter with a Cam Ward TD pass to Carnell Tate. Then two FG by Joey Slye, including the game winner from 44-yards gives Tennessee their first victory of 2026, 26-20. Despite a few embarrassing losses, the Titans still were able to keep themselves in a few losses. I think that will could lift the team’s spirits to the next week. However, the Browns’ defense will be tough to handle. But the way they’ve been scoring, this is a chance for the Titans to take advantage in a low scoring game.

This is my upset special!
Smooth’s Pick: Tennessee (16-13)

Indianapolis at Minnesota
Line: Vikings by 5½

Daniel Jones was 22-of-42 for 269 yards with a touchdown and threw two interceptions in Sunday’s loss to Tennessee. He was also sacked 6 times. He’s gonna have a tougher go as the Colts head to Minneapolis to take on the Vikings, who are on a bye week. No one expected Minnesota to be undefeated, much less on to of the NFC North. Much of that has to do with their defense, which is ranked 2nd in the league in total yards given up. They also lead the league in turnovers and in 5 games, have only given up 12 points a game, good for 1st. We’re seeing the same problems from Daniel Jones in Indianapolis that we saw when he was with the Giants, turnover city. And this weekend could see the same. Unless they can get their run game going and slow the pace, the Vikings are going to run all over the Colts.

This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick: Minnesota (29-13)

Miami at NY Jets
Line: NY Jets by 5½

Miami is coming off a bye week, and started the season with a winless record through their first five games, which essentially ends their chances of making the playoffs. No team has ever gone winless through the first five weeks and made the postseason. By tanking the season, they have a chance at the #1 overall pick in 2027. But right now, the Chargers, who are 0-6 have the inside track on that position. However, with LA being much more talented, they’ll be more likely to get more wins than Miami. We will soon see. In the meantime, the Fish swim up the Atlantic coast to take on the Jets. Gang Green’s secondary was torched by the New England offense for three TDs, as they fall to the Patriots. One bright spot, Omar Cooper caught six catches from Geno Smith for 103 yards and a score in the loss. The reason why this game not my lock is because the Jets. Two weeks of preparation will likely give the Fish more of a chance, but regardless, I think Gang Green will take this game.

Smooth’s Pick: NY Jets (19-13)

Tampa Bay at Carolina
Line: Panthers by 3½

The Bucs blew a 13-point lead on Pittsburgh last Sunday, and it’s clear they are missing Baker Mayfield at QB. Jalon Daniels was sacked 5 times, and gave up two picks in the loss to the Steelers. The defense kept the team in the game with 5 sacks on Aaron Rodgers and an INT. The loss dropped the Bucs to 1-5 on the season, and a brutal 0-4 on their home turf. They head to Charlotte to take on the Panthers. They took advantage of a depleted Philadelphia team. Bryce Young with 281 yards passing a two TDs in the 25-14 win over the Eagles. Chubba Hubbard with 28 carries for 121-yard rushing and a TD. We’ll tell you more about the bad day in Philly later in the broadcast. Head coach Todd Bolles is hoping to have Mayfield back this Sunday, but that’s not a guaranteed. Without him, I’m afraid the Bucs are going to struggle against their divisional opponent.

Smooth’s Pick: Carolina (28-16)

Cincinnati at Baltimore
Line: Ravens by 2½

The Bengals are coming off a bye week a half game back of division leading Cleveland. The offense of Joe Burrow, JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins are off to a hot start, and the next three weeks could have them in prime position down the stretch. In the next three weeks, they play the Ravens, Tennessee, and Atlanta. With the exception of the Titans, that’s a rough stretch. However, the games are winnable depending on the status of injuries in Baltimore and the play of the Falcons. Baltimore is where the Bengals head after the bye. The Ravens, who were without Lamar Jackson on Sunday, have now blown 16 games in which they led by 10 or more points since the start of the 2020 season. With the upset loss to Cleveland last Sunday, Baltimore fell to 4-2 on the year. Tyler Hunley was sacked 3 times by the Browns defense. Right now, Jackson is day-to-day, and could be a gametime decision if he can start. The Ravens are only slight favorites at home, and this could be the right time for the Bengals to steal a victory from their divisional opponent.

Smooth’s Pick: Cincinnati (24-21)

Denver at Arizona
Line: Broncos by 3½

After two rushing TDs by RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins in the 2nd quarter, the Denver offense went flat. Thankfully, their defense took up the slack getting 5 sacks on Sam Darnold. It would Will Lutz kicked a 53-yard walk off FG in OT to give the Broncos a 17-14 victory over Seattle. That win puts them a game and a half behind undefeated Kansas City in the AFC West. They head to the desert to take on the Cardinals. Arizona’s defense came into the game ranked 26th in the league. But they easily handled the Rams offense to just three scoring drives all game. They get six FG from Chad Rykand, including the game winner from 43-yards to get the upset win over LA, 18-16. This was a big spark for the Cardinals, and they’ll have to be on their toes this weekend against a tougher opponent at home. If the Broncos can solve their problems on offense, they can win this game without any problems. But I think it’s going to be a rough go for that to happen.

Smooth’s Pick: Denver (20-18)

Green Bay at Detroit
Line: Lions by 3½

Jordan Love threw for 273 yards passing and a TD. The Packers defense shut out the Dallas offense in the first half. They led 17-0, and it could have actually been worse with the way the Cowboys offense played. Never the less, Green Bay climbs to 4-2 on the season with a 23-13 win. They head to the motor city to take on the idled Lions. Detroit is coming off a bye week with a shaky 3-2 record. They could have easily been 1-5 if it wasn’t for an opening day OT win against New Orleans and a week three win against the Jets. Looking ahead the next three weeks after the Packers, they have Minnesota, Miami, and an international game in Germany against New England. This game is guaranteed to be a knock down, drag out fight for the division. It always is between these two teams. I think the Lions coming off the bye should give them more of a spark for the win. But it will be closer than expected.

Smooth’s Pick: Detroit (27-25)

LA Rams at Las Vegas
Line: Rams by 5½

Our pre-season Super Bowl pick isn’t doing so well after six games. The Rams have now drop to 2-4 on the season with the upset loss to division rival Arizona on Sunday. It got bad when they lost kicker Blake Grupe after he was injured after a tackle. The Cardinals sacked Matthew Stafford three times and hit him five more times. He was under consistent pressure even when he wasn’t getting hit. The result was a Rams offense that managed just one touchdown and nine points through the game’s first 59-plus minutes. The Rams head to sin city to take on Las Vegas, where the Raiders gave all they had as they hosted Buffalo last Sunday. Kirk Cousins with a much better game than last week, throwing for 313 yards and two TDs. The Silver and Black would keep it close, until late in the 4th quarter. Two scores by the Bills would give them the victory, 33-30 was the final. Tre Tucker was Cousins’ target with those two scores, and almost hit the century mark in the loss. The play from Cousins is exactly what the Raiders need this weekend against a slumping opponent. However, miscues could give them trouble. I’m not quite sold on Las Vegas even at home. I like LA to bounce back and win this one.

Smooth’s Pick: LA Rams (27-19)

Kansas City at Seattle
Line: Seahawks by 2½

Kenneth Walker with 128 yards rushing and 2 TDs, and the Chiefs defense would get to Justin Herbert four times for sacks and also get an INT. They keep the Chargers winless with a 22-6 victory over LA. Patrick Mahomes was largely quiet, 23-30 for 272 yards passing on the day, as they are 5-0 on the season. KC heads to the Emerald City to take on the slumping Super Bowl champions. Seattle had all kinds of problems holding a sustained attack on offense only getting a 55-yard FG from Jason Meyers. But they finally found their mojo in the 4th quarter when the Seahawks found the end zone. A TD run by George Holani and a juggling 2-point conversion catch by Rashid Shaheed, along with a 2nd FG by Meyers sent the game to OT, where they would fall to Denver. In addition to being sacked 5 times, Sam Darnold would also get picked off twice. Has Darnold reverted back to his old ways with the Jets? Well, it sure looks like it. The’ll need to step it up on Sunday night. Walker will look to make a statement against his old team after leaving in free agency. I say, he will quiet the 12th man with his ground game, and keep the Chiefs undefeated.

Smooth’s Pick: Kansas City (24-17)

Monday, October 26

Dallas at Philadelphia
Line: Cowboys by 4½

Who would have thought that both of these teams would be 2-4 so far this season? Lots of things have gone wrong for both Dallas and Philly. Let’s take the Cowboys. Their defense is ranked near or at the bottom of the league in many key statistics, and last Sunday night, they looked atrocious. Their offense was no better, completely stymied. Dak Prescott was 34-58 for only 258 yards passing and a TD late in the 4th quarter. He also gave up 2 INT in the loss to Green Bay. Then there’s the Eagles, who have been snake bit by the injury bug. No Jalen Hurts and no Saquon Barkley. Tanner McKee gots the start at QB for Philly, he ended the day with 215 yards passing and a TD. He was also sacked three times in the loss to Carolina. It gets worse for Philly as they will be without Hurts for the rest of the season, after he was diagnosed with deep vein thrombosis, a condition that could have been fatal if it wasn’t treated correctly. He’ll be on blood thinners for three months, and should return to action at 100% percent. With all the problems the Eagles have, this game is a prime opportunity to get the Cowboys back in the thick of things in the NFC East. But their play hasn’t been great of late. It’s time for Prescott and company to get the win. It’s staring right in their faces.

Smooth’s Pick: Dallas (30-19)

Smooth’s NFL Football Picks 2026 (Week 6 – A Tie for the Ages)

A couple of wild finishes during week 5 and the first tie since 2022. It was a crazy week in the NFL. I’ll tell you more about it. But first, lets take a look at how we did with our picks.

Last Week’s Results

Head-to-Head: 9-5-1
Against the Spread: 5-5-4

Season to Date

Head-to-Head: 50-28-1
Against the Spread: 33-28-17

Bye Week Teams: Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, Minnesota

Thursday October 15

Seattle at Denver
Line: Seahawks by 2½

It was pure chaos at Lumen Field, with ejections and the Seahawks committing six turnovers against San Francisco. They also failed on a late defensive stand in the final minute of play. They fall to the 49ers, 32-29. Sam Darnold with 2 of those turnovers for picks. With the loss, the Seahawks drop to 3-2 on the season. They head to the mile high city to take on the Broncos. They continued to struggle on offense this season, this time against the Chargers. But their defense did enough to bring them the victory, 23-17 was the final. LB Nik Bonitto led the Broncos defense with 2 of the five sacks on LA’s Justin Herbert. Denver’s offense is going to have another challenge, this time, against the top defense in the NFL on a short week. However, with the defensing Super Bowl champs starting off slow, they could make it a tough go for them on home soil. I wouldn’t be surprise if this will be a low scoring matchup. If that’s the case, I see an upset brewing.

This is my upset special!
Smooth’s Pick: Denver (19-16)

Sunday October 18

Houston vs Jacksonville
This game is being played in London, UK
Line: Jags by 2½

The Texans finally get themselves in the win column, after a dominating 26-3 win over Tennessee. CJ Stroud with a rushing TD and a passing score to Jaylin Noel late in the 4th quarter. Houston’s defense held the Titans offense to just 187 yards total, and they sacked Cam Ward four times in the victory. They fly across the Atlantic for a game in London against the Jags. This is the third and final game of the season in England, and the second for Jacksonville. Last week’s matchup with Philadelphia started off with a lot of fireworks. Ejections on both sides of the ball, and it was a low scoring affair. It would all come down to the final minutes, where both teams trade FGs. Cam Little’s 57-yard FG with no time to spare gave the Jags a 19-17 victory over the Eagles. Final numbers for Trevor Lawrence, 331 yards passing and two TDs. Those two scores to Parker Washington, who also has 6 catches for 124 yards receiving in the win. With a divisional matchup, both teams need this game badly. More so for the Texans, as they can no longer afford any more bad losses. Jacksonville escaped with the win last week, but can they do the same thing twice? I’m not quite so sure, bit it will be close.

Smooth’s Pick: Jacksonville (24-21)

Chicago at Atlanta
Line: Bears by 3½

The Bears had their worst game of the season, as they were pounded by the Green Bay offense in the second half. 17 unanswered points, and starter Tyson Bagent was benched in favor of Case Keenum. He didn’t fare any better as Chicago gets crushed by the Packers, 31-7. D’Andre Swift was the only bright spot for the Bears, with a TD in the loss. They head to the ATL to take on the Falcons. Last Sunday night, it was “Angry Birds” going at it, and it went to OT for a resolution. Tyler Huntley in for the injured Lamar Jackson took in a 1-yard TD to give the Ravens the lead. With Michael Pennix, Jr. hurt, head coach Kevin Stefanski goes with Tua Tagovailoa at QB. He gives up an INT to secure the win for Baltimore, 30-23 was the final. Jessie Bates with the 36-yard fumble recovery and return for the score. Kyle Pitts gets his first TD reception of the season in the victory. QB Caleb Williams is “progressing” with his injury, but the Bears haven’t determined who will start if he can’t. More importantly, can Chicago’s run defense handle the two Robinsons. Either way, it might be a long day for the Bears, after the spanking they got the week before.

Smooth’s Pick: Atlanta (28-16)

Baltimore at Cleveland
Line: Ravens by 4½

More on that Baltimore victory over Atlanta on Sunday night. Tyler Huntley with 221 total yards and three TDs, including that score in overtime. Another 100+ yard rushing performance for Derrick Henry, and Kyle Hamilton with the game clinching INT. The Ravens fly to Cleveland for a divisional matchup against the Browns. A couple of Andre Szmyt FGs and a TD pass from Dashaun Watson to Denzel Boston from 29-yards gave Cleveland a 12-10 lead in the 4th quarter. But a fumbled snap on a punt attempt from their own 42-yard line amid rainy conditions at the Meadowlands gave the Jets the ball at the Cleveland 23. They would convert the turnover into the go-ahead score; 17-12 Jets was the final. Lamar Jackson reportedly has hope to return to action in Week 6, but Tyler Hunley has proven to be a worthy stop-gap in case he’s unable to. Cleveland’s defense will be a bit tougher than Atlanta’s, so scoring points could be tough. Still, I like the Ravens to pull out a win in this AFC North matchup.

Smooth’s Pick: Baltimore (16-13)

Tennessee at Indianapolis
Line: Colts by 6½

Another game, another poor showing by Cam Ward and the Titans. 170 passing yards and 4 sacks given up by Tennessee’s O-line. Joey Slye was the only offense, with a FG to start the scoring. Only 57 yards rushing accumulated in the loss to Houston. They head to Indianapolis, where aside from the 1-yard TD by Tyler Warren, 5 FGs by Spencer Schrader is all they could muster offensively. Their offense couldn’t get going in the red zone against Pittsburgh, as they lose 34-22. Daniel Jones with 267 yards passing, but 0 TDs in the loss. It’s looking more, and more like the hiring of Robert Saleh as head coach may not have been the best selection. Even more disturbing is the play of Cam Ward. Could a change be in store? Unless they can somehow overcome these obstacles, they’re going to be instore for another bad loss. I like the Colts in this divisional matchup.

This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick: Indianapolis (37-12)

NY Jets at New England
Line: Patriots by 7½

Give credit to Gang Green’s special teams for setting up the game winning 22-yard TD by Braden Allen. The defense also neutralized the Cleveland offense, for only 12 points, and 8 sacks on Dashaun Watson. They are now 2-3 on the season. They head to Foxborough for a tough AFC East matchup against the Patriots, where Drake Maye is back to his old self again. He accumulated 5 TDs, 4 of them passing on 374 yards, as New England pummeled Las Vegas, 45-17. Rhamondre Stevenson returns to action after injury with a rushing TD in the win. If Gang Green is going to win this game, they’ll have to neutralize the Patriots offense. Drake Maye has found his groove, and that could be tough on the road. I like the Pats to take the win, rather easily.

Smooth’s Pick: New England (31-16)

New Orleans at NY Giants
Line: Saints by 1½

After a Kendre Miller 2-yd TD, the Saints offense ran into a buzz saw in the Minnesota defense. They had to generate something with their own defense, and that made it happen with a Jonas Sanker 87-yard fumble recovery for a TD. That’s all they could muster as New Orleans lose to the Vikings, 23-13. Only 55 yards rushing accumulated for the Saints. They head to the Meadowlands to take on the Giants. The G-Men struggled with the Washington run defense and the rain all together last Sunday. But they didn’t break down completely. Jameis Winston rallied Big Blue from 14 points down with TD strikes to Isaish Likely, his 2nd of the game, and Malik Nabers who had 11 catches for 121 yards and a score. That sends the game into OT, where both teams had attempts to win the ball game. Cam Scattebo’s fumbled deep in Commanders territory. That gave Washington a chance to win, but bad clock management on the part of Jayden Daniels and head coach Dan Quinn ended the game in a 27-all tie. Final numbers for Winston, 323 yards passing and 3 TDs as both teams finish the game all-square. At 3-1-1, they’re a game and a half of Dallas, Philly and Washington in the NFC East. The Saints may have the same problems against the Giants defensive front. They’ve made progress in the first two games of the season, before dropping two straight. So, this is another winnable game for the G-Men. Mistakes prevented a win last Sunday, and it will be the same here. Even though they’re the underdog, I like Big Blue to come out with the win on Sunday.

Smooth’s Pick: NY Giants (24-19)

Carolina at Philadelphia
Line: Eagles by 1½

The Panthers are coming off a bye week, and they needed it, as they encountered a number of injuries over the last five weeks. DB’s Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson are both on IR. The offense lost wide receiver Xavier Legette to a knee injury and Jalen Coker to a quadriceps issue. Left guard Damien Lewis also missed time with a UCL injury in his elbow. The Panthers are playing with replacements who have less experience and less time to practice together. They head to Philly, where many things went wrong for the Eagles during their loss to Jacksonville in London last Sunday. But the fatal blow happened after they thought they scored the game winning FG with 8 seconds left in regulation. Jacksonville kick returner Ameer Abdullah brought back a 53-yard kick return into Philly territory and in FG range. Chad Little kicks a 57-yard walk off FG to give the Jags the win. Jalen Hurts threw for 220 yards and a TD, no Saquon Barkley in this game. Don’t look now, but the Eagles are looking more, and more vulnerable as the season progresses. Between injuries and bad play, could they even make the playoffs? Another loss, and it could spell trouble for Nick Siriani. I think the bye week helps the Panthers get an upset win in Philly.

Smooth’s Pick: Carolina (21-17)

Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay
Line: Steelers by 2½

Aaron Rodgers breaks a couple of records in the win against Indianapolis. He joins Terry Bradshaw and Ben Roethlisberger as the only Steelers QB with three consecutive games with 3 TDs. He also passed Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning for the most touchdown passes in the regular season and postseason combined. Pittsburgh heads south to Tampa, where last week, we said the Bucs defense needed to step up and stop Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense. They did just that, and utilize their run game to pull off one of the biggest point spread upsets off the season. Bucky Irving tallied 165 yards rushing and a touchdown on the ground. Jalon Daniels went 19 of 25 for 189 yards with a touchdown in the 24-16 stunner over the Cowboys. We’ll tell you how this game could have gone the other way later on in the broadcast. The Bucs are going to have a tougher time with the Steelers defense generating points. Even though they’re at home, the Steelers are the much healthier team, and that’s why I’m taking them to win this Sunday.

Smooth’s Pick: Pittsburgh (23-14)

Arizona at LA Rams
Line: Rams by 12½

After winning their opening game against the Chargers, the Cardinals have lost four straight, falling to Detroit, 45-21. The Lions got out to a 31-7 lead, and the game was over after that. Before the game, Arizona send WR Marvin Harrisoon, Jr. and a 2027 seventh-round pick to the Texans in exchange for a 2027 second-round pick and a 2027 sixth-round pick. Harrison was the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 draft, and finished his Cardinals career with 108 receptions for 1,578 yards and 13 touchdowns in 33 games. The Cards head to LA for an NFC West matchup with the Rams. There were 8 lead changes in that Monday night matchup against LA and Buffalo. It took OT to get to a resolution. In the end, a blocked FG by the Bills special teams led to a 37-yard walk-off win for Buffalo. Despite the loss the Rams got some big numbers from key players. Matthew Stafford with 383 yards passing and 3 TDs, Puka Nacua with 17 catches for 138 yards and a score in the loss. At 2-3, the Rams are probably the biggest disappointment in the league. They’re supposed to be Super Bowl contenders, but they’re come up short three times. They should be able to get back on track with the weaker Cardinals coming to town.

Smooth’s Pick: LA Rams (38-17)

LA Chargers at Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 8½

Another ugly game for Justin Herbert, he was sacked 5 times, and fumbled twice, one of them was a turnover. He did find Hayden Rucci for a 7-yard TD pass in the third quarter. Kimami Vidal would give the Bolts a 42 yards rushing score for a 17-10 lead, but Denver would score 13 unanswered points in the 4th to get the victory. The Bolts head to KC, where the Chiefs are coming off a bye week. They’re 4-0, and the rest of the AFC West is struggling to catch up. But they shouldn’t take their undefeated streak lightly. After the Bolts, they have Seattle and Denver to keep their streak intact, and it won’t be easy. In this game, however, I expect a Bolts team to play with desperation. Another loss, and you have to wonder how long Jim Harbaugh has in his tenure as head coach.

Smooth’s Pick: Kansas City (33-20)

Buffalo at Las Vegas
Line: Bills by 5½

Buffalo had to fight hard for that Monday night win against the Rams. As we said before, 8 lead changes, plus OT. Josh Allen rushed for 121 yards on 10 carries and a TD, he also threw for 210 yards and another score. James Cook had a rough night. Despite 25 carries for 111 yards and two TDs, he also fumbled three times, one led to a LA TD that sent the game to OT. The Bills head to sin city, where the Silver and Black defense gave up 536 total yards to the New England offense, and the defense didn’t do any better, giving up 4 sacks. With the blowout loss, Las Vegas head coach Klint Kubiak got a chance to look at his #1 overall pick from this year’s NFL draft in action. Fernando Mendoza was 6 for 8 for 48 yards, no TD and no turnovers. They should tighten up being at home, but if we see another performance like last Sunday, we could see more of Mendoza. I think the Bills will win, but it will be closer.

Smooth’s Pick: Buffalo (23-19)

Dallas at Green Bay
Line: Packers by 1½

The Cowboys could have won their game against Tampa Bay last Thursday night. After being down 24-10 in the 4th quarter, Dallas took advantage of a 4th down stop at their own 1-yard line and drove 99 yards to score a TD. After a three and out by the Bucs, Dak Prescott took his offense to the Tampa Bay 25-yard line. That’s when he gave up a late INT, to drop the Cowboys to 2-3 on the season. They head to Lambeau Field to take on the Packers, who had their best game on both sides of the ball this season against Chicago last Sunday. Jordan Love torched the Bears secondary for 367 yards passing and 2 TDs. Devonte Watt with two of the four sacks on Chicago QB in the win. It’s taken too much time for Dallas’ defense to jell. On the flip side, mistakes are ruining the Cowboys offense. It’s gotten Jerry Jones pretty frustrated. He’s beginning to lose patience, and I’m wondering what options he has. Something tells me the Cowboys are going to snap out of it this Sunday night.

Smooth’s Pick: Dallas (30-17)

Monday October 19

Washington at San Francisco
Line: 49ers by 7½

If Dan Quinn winds up getting fired down the stretch or at the end of the season, he can look back at last Sunday’s game as the turning point of the end of his tenure. His Commanders were deep in Giants territory, only needing a FG to win. But calling a run play with less than :10 seconds to go in the OT period was deadly, as they didn’t have enough time to spike the ball. The game ends in a tie. Which is unfortunate, because Jayden Daniels had a killer day on the ground, rushing 9 times for 103 yards and two TDs. However, he was also sacked 5 times in the game. The Commanders head to Santa Clara to take on the 49ers, where the defense got the job done against the Seahawks in Seattle. Brock Purdy with two TD passes, one of them to Mike Evans, who caught 7 passes for 113 yards receiving and that score. The Commanders played well enough to win last Sunday night. That’s why some pundits say this game will be the perfect time to redeem themselves. However, with the Niners running ion all four cylinders, I think they will come out ahead.

Smooth’s Pick: San Francisco (34-26)

Smooth’s NFL Football Picks 2026 (Week 5 – Surprises at the top and bottom of the NFL)

Four weeks are now in the books, and we have some stunning surprises at the top and bottom of the NFL standings. Which head coaches are really on the hot seat after slow starts? We’ll go over who is threading the needle. But first, here’s how we did during week 4.

Last Week’s Results

Head-to-Head: 10-6
Against the Spread: 5-6-5

Season to Date

Head-to-Head: 41-23
Against the Spread: 28-23-13

Bye Week Teams: Carolina and Kansas City

Thursday, October 8

Tampa Bay at Dallas
Line: Cowboys by 9½

Desperation time for the Bucs, as they’re winless at 0-4 and without their star QB Baker Mayfield. Todd Bowles had to rely on undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels at QB. He threw for his first TD pass to Kenny Gainwell late in the game, but they would fall short in their game against Green Bay, 17-14 was the final. Daniels numbers on the day 19-27 for 148 yards and that score. He was also picked off twice. They head to Dallas, where the Cowboys snapped a two-game losing skid by beating Houston. They trailed a good part of the game, but it was a late TD from Dak Prescott to CeeDee Lamb with only :43 second left to give Dallas a 34-30 win. Prescott threw for 335 yards passing and that score. The win puts them at 2-2 on the season. At 0-4, Bowles needs a win from his team badly, and with the team playing below his expectations, that’s going to be hard to come by. For the Cowboys, they certainly lucked out with that come from behind win. Unless the Bucs defense can step up and stop Prescott and company, the inevitable may just happen after Thursday.

Smooth’s Pick: Dallas (31-13)

Sunday, October 11

Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville
This game is being played in London
Line: Jags by 3½

The second of three international games in London. It’s getting ugly in Philly, as they lose their 2nd straight, this time at home against the Rams. It started off well for the Eagles, going ahead by 10 at halftime. Then the dam burst. LA would score 14 unanswered points to win, 24-20. Only 93 yards passing for Jalen Hurts, but he did throw for 2 scores. Bad news as Saquon Barkley left the game with a pulled hamstring. It’s unknown about his status for this Sunday. They take on the Jags, where Trevor Lawrence threw for 227 yards and a TD pass to Brian Thomas. Chris Rodriguez scored on a 25-yard rushing TD late. Jacksonville holds on for the 22-18 win over Cincinnati. At 2-2, head coach Nick Siriani is beginning to feel more heat trying to get his team on track, and with the Jags coming to London, it may be tough to salvage a win. Without the Eagles missing a few of their key players, I’m afraid I like the Jags to take this is a place they’ve played very well in.

Smooth’s Pick: Jacksonville (26-17)

Chicago at Green Bay
Line: Bears by 2½

Bears head coach Ben Johnson decided to go with Tyson Bagent at QB, after he was cleared from the concussion protocol. Much of the action was on the ground, where Kyle Monangai rushed 30 times for 147 yards and two scores, as Chicago beats the Jets, 23-12. They head to Lambeau Field, where the Packers got a much-needed win against Tampa Bay to get to .500. The defense came to the rescue and sacked Jalon Daniels three times and picked him off twice. Jordan Love with two TD passes to Tucker Kraft and Marcus Golden in the victory. The win takes the heat off Packers head coach Matt LeFleur, but now they have a must win situation against a divisional opponent. It’s unclear if Caleb Williams will return this Sunday, so that gives the Pack an advantage. They’ll have to stop the run somehow. They haven’t looked good the last few games on defense, so that will be the difference maker. I like the Bears in this game, just slightly.

Smooth’s Pick: Chicago (19-17)

Houston at Tennessee
Line: Texans by 6½

Stunned surprise, as the Texans lose their 4th straight to open the season with a home loss to Dallas. CJ Stroud did all he could throwing for 347 yards and 2 TDs, Nico Collins the recipient of both those scores with 7 catches for 118 yards receiving. In the end, the defense just could not hold the fort. They head to Nashville for a crucial AFC South matchup against the Titans. They continued their slide, falling to 0-4 on the season with a loss to Baltimore, 24-18. Tony Pollard scored a TD early, Cam Ward and Wan’Dale Robinson hooked up for a late TD to beat the point spread. Texans head coach Demarco Ryans is clearly on the hot seat after four tough losses that could have gone there way. As for the Titans, the tenure of Robert Saleh is now on shaky ground after four straight losses. Something’s gotta give this Sunday, and in a divisional matchup, it’s looking like this game could go down to the wire.

Smooth’s Pick: Houston (21-18)

Cincinnati at Miami
Line: Bengals by 6½

Joe Burrow went 39 for 54 for 428 yards passing and a TD to Tee Higgins, but he was intercepted twice in the Cincinnati loss to Jacksonville. Higgins with 11 catches for 157 yards. The Bengals also lost JaMarr Chase due to a concussion, it’s unknown about his status for this Sunday against Miami. As for the Fish, the defense held the Vikings to just 5 FGs on the day. Unfortunately, they had all kinds of problems scoring on their own. Ollie Gordon with a 12-yard TD, as they fall to Minnesota, 15-10. Gordon with 9 carries and reached the century mark in the loss. It’s an encouraging sign when Miami’s defense played a solid game preventing Minnesota from scoring in the red zone. Unfortunately, their offense continues to struggle, and they’ll continue to do so against a tough Bengals “D”.

This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick: Cincinnati (33-14)

Las Vegas at New England
Line: Patriots by 3½

Despite a career day from Kenneth Walker for the Chiefs, the Raiders kept their game against Kansas City close for much of the game until the 4th quarter. That’s when their defense collapsed, giving up 2 TDs. They lose to KC, 30-27. Kirk Cousins with another big day, 365 yards passing and 2 TDs, Alston Jeanty with 126 total yards in the loss. The Silver and Black heads to Foxborough to take on the Patriots. After two disappointing performances by Drake Maye, he finally got back to normal. He threw for 269 yards, 323 yards total and two TDs, including the game winner to Efton Chism. New England upsets Buffalo, 29-26. Romeo Doubs with two of those TD catches. The win also brings them back to .500. The Raiders are proving that they’re no longer pushovers, but this will be a tough task despite the way the Pats have been playing of late. Expect a tighter game and a tough finish to go along with it.

Smooth’s Pick: New England (27-24)

Minnesota at New Orleans
Line: Saints by 1½

The Vikings offense was held to FGs, and Kyler Murray was sacked 4 times. However, LB Dallas Turner got both sacks on Malik Willis to solidify the win over Miami and climb to 4-0 on the season. They head to the “Big Easy”, where the Saints defense got run over by Atlanta’s run offense. They gave up 420 total offensive yards, as they fall to the Falcons, 45-24. Despite a weak run game, Alvin Kamara did get two rushing TDs in the loss. Tyler Shough had a bad night and heard lots of boos from the home crowd. It’s not gonna get any easier against a tough Vikings defense. Unless he can outsmart their pass rush, I’m afraid it might be a long day, despite the point spread. I like the Vikings to win.

Smooth’s Pick: Minnesota (20-14)

Cleveland at NY Jets
Line: Jets by 1½

More smiles from Browns fans, as Dashaun Watson threw for 268 yards and a TD. Quishon Judkins with a TD score, and the defense bent, but didn’t break against Aaron Rodgers as they beat Pittsburgh last Thursday night, 27-24. The Browns are now 3-1, and on top of the AFC North division. They head to the Meadowlands, where the Jets drop their third straight game, this time to Chicago. Geno Smith found Isaiah Williams for a 59-yard strike late in the game when the outcome was known. Other than that highlight, Gang Green’s offense was stymied by the Bears defense. Despite their 1-3 record, head coach Aaron Glenn continues to make sure his team stays competitive. Their record could have gone the other way around. As for the Browns, a bit of luck went their way in all three of their wins. This is a hard to determine matchup, as both teams are evenly matched. So, it will all come down to special teams. Having said that, I like the home team.

Smooth’s Pick: NY Jets (15-12)

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh
Line: Steelers by 2½

Daniel Jones started the game in London horribly with an INT and a lost fumble. But adjusted from that debacle to score a TD. The Colts got their footing back courtesy of Jonathan Taylor’s 2 rushing TDs. Indianapolis was able to handle Washington, 30-13. They head to the steel city to take on Pittsburgh. It was a frustrating night for Aaron Rodgers and Steelers head coach Mike McCarthy, as they exchanged f-bombs on prime-time TV. Rodgers with 299 yards passing and three TDs, but he was also sacked 5 times and threw two INTs in the loss to Cleveland. The Steelers get an extra couple of days to recover from their Thursday night matchup, while the Colts have to cross the Atlantic and play this Sunday. However, the issue with the Steelers right now giving up points, and lots of them, 27+ plus in both games. If DJ doesn’t give up turnovers, they may well stun the Steelers on the road. That being said, I like Rodgers and company to eke out a victory.

Smooth’s Pick: Pittsburgh (31-28)

NY Giants at Washington
Line: Commanders by 3½

The G-Men started off slow, as the defense gave up two TDs in the 1st half. They got their footing after two FGs when Jameis Winston found Malachai Fields for his 1st NFL TD. Then, Winston would find Malik Nabers for is first score of the season to give Big Blue the lead at halftime. After a Arizona TD, Jameis Winston would find Theo Johnson for his 3rd TD pass of the game. It would all come down to the final set of plays for the Cardinals. On 4th down and goal, Deonte Banks would intercept the pass and take it 98 yards to the house to seal the victory for the G-Men, 36-24 was the final. The Giants have now won two straight, are a perfect 3-0 at MetLife Stadium, and are 1-0 inside the NFC East. Winston overcame two picks to throw for 250 yards and those 3 TDs. More importantly, they’re all alone in 1st place in the NFC East, the first time since 2008. They head to the nation’s capital to take on the Commanders who get some good news heading into this Sunday’s game. Jayden Daniels has been cleared to play this Sunday. They lost Marcus Mariotta to injury in last week’s loss to Indianapolis, and had to rely on 3rd string QB, Athan Kaliakmanis. He was a 7th round pick in this year’s draft. In London, he threw for 186 yards a TD and an INT in the loss to the Colts. This game is a trap for the G-Men. Riding a two-game win streak, I’m almost content for a let-down, especially with Daniels returning to action. But I think they might just pull it off. It all depends on the play of Winston for that to happen.

This is my upset special!
Smooth’s Pick: NY Giants (25-21)

Denver at LA Chargers
Line: Broncos by 3½

The Broncos offense continue to struggle, as they were unable to get any offensive fire power going for most of their game against San Francisco. Bo Nix did find Jaylen Waddle for a TD in the 4th quarter to keep it close. But the 49ers score late, they win it, 24-14. They head to LA, where the Chargers are in some desperate trouble after dropping to 0-4 on the season. This time at the hands of Seattle. The offense struggled significantly, and Justin Herbert threw a pair of interceptions in the 30-23 loss. Final numbers for Herbert, 19-31 for 189 yards passing a TD and those two picks. He was also sacked 4 times. More trouble for Bolts head coach Jim Harbaugh, as his offense is not up to par. Their hope is that the Broncos offense can continue to struggle, but their defense will have to kick it up a notch. I like the Broncos to win a close AFC West battle.

Smooth’s Pick: Denver (23-20)

Detroit at Arizona
Line: Lions by 4½

Jared Goff led all passers during week 4 with 412 yards. Unfortunately for the Lions, he was only able to throw 1 TD, and the Carolina defense gave him all kinds of problems. Detroit loses to the Panthers, 32-26. Jameson Williams with 6 catches for 106 yards receiving and that score, Jamyr Gibbs with a rushing score in the loss. The pride heads to the desert to take on the Cardinals. Jacoby Brissett made a lot of mistakes in the loss to the Giants on Sunday. But none more consequential than that pick six that ended the Cardinals late rally with :11 seconds to go. Final stats for Brissett, 21 for 35 for 166 yards passing, two TDs and three picks. That one mistake was the difference from being 2-2 and at .500. Instead, they drop to 1-3 on the season. Coming home helps, as their offense does have some life. If they can give the Lions the same pressure they’ve received in the last 4 games, they might just pull it off. However, I like the Lions to win.

Smooth’s Pick: Detroit (30-24)

San Francisco at Seattle
Line: Seahawks by 3½

Brock Purdy with 218 yards passing and two TDs, one to Deebo Samuel, the other to George Kittle which was the game winner, as they beat Denver and stay undefeated at 4-0. Christian McCaffery also with a TD in the win. They face their toughest test to date, as they head north to the Emerald city to take on division rival, Seattle. The defense got to Justin Herbert 4 times, and Sam Darnold withstood a INT to throw for two TDs in the win over the Chargers. That Seahawks defense is currently number one in the NFL, giving up only 246.8 yards a game, and the Niners offense is going to have to somehow withstand that pass rush. I think Purdy and McCaffrey will get their yardage, but against that 12th man, it’s going to be mighty tough. I like Seahawks to win a close game.

Smooth’s Pick: Seattle (24-21)

Baltimore at Atlanta
Line: Falcons by 1½

Lamar Jackson threw for 222 yards and two TDs, but he had to leave the game after suffering an ankle injury in the win over Tennessee. Team doctors said he is day to day and will probably be a gametime decision for this Sunday. The Ravens fly to the ATL to take on another flock of feathered rivals, the dirty birds. The Robinsons continue to run all over the league. Bijan with 145 yards and 2 TDs, Brian with a career best 3 TDs. Altogether, they both ran for 207 yards as they beat New Orleans. If Jackson doesn’t start, it will be Tyler Huntley under center for the Ravens, who knows the system. You’ll probably see more of Derrick Henry on rushing plays. However, the key will be whether they can stop that two-headed monster called the B-Robinsons. Both teams have stacked defenses, so this game may well be a low scoring affair. I think the dirty birds should come out on top.

Smooth’s Pick: Atlanta (20-17)

Monday, October 12

Buffalo at LA Rams
Line: Rams by 2½

Lots of sloppiness, as Josh Allen threw a late INT and the Buffalo defense consistently came up short in latest frustrating loss to New England. Final numbers for Allen, 253 yards passing and two TDs, James Cook also with a rushing TD in the loss. The Bills head to LA to take on the Rams. Matthew Stafford threw two INTs early against Philadelphia, but it was the running game of Kyren Williams that gave LA the fighting chance. He finds the end zone twice in the 4th quarter to ensure the victory over the Eagles. Puka Nakua returns from injury with 9 catches for 125 yards in the win. It’s that sloppy play that should concern the Bills Mafia, and against a team like the Rams, they’re going to take full advantage of their mistakes. I picked these two teams as my Super Bowl picks, so this will be a preview of February, that is, if both teams make it that far. For this matchup, I favor the home team.

Smooth’s Pick: LA Rams (28-21)

Smooth’s NFL Football Picks 2026 (This Week’s Power Rankings)

Week 4 – More big surprises in the NFL, and the G-Men lose another important piece. This time on the defensive side. We’ll get to that, and more. But first lets finds out how we did during week 3.

Last Week’s Results

Head-to-Head: 9-7
Against the Spread: 8-7-1

Season to Date

Head-to-Head: 31-17
Against the Spread: 23-17-8

Before we go to our picks for week 4, lets take a look at the first NFL Power Rankings.

Top 5

5. Baltimore
4. Seattle
3. Buffalo
2. Kansas City
1. San Francisco

Bottom 5

28. Green Bay
29. Tampa Bay
30. Miami
31. New England
32. Tennessee

Thursday, October 1

Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Line: Steelers by 2 ½

The Steelers were in a see-saw battle with Cincinnati on Sunday, trading TDs and FGs until the final minute of play. That’s when Steelers defensive tackle Derrick Harmon sacked and stripped Joe Burrow of the football to seal the win, 30-27 was final. Aaron Rodgers went 19 for 34 for 292 yards passing and 3 TDs. Jaylen Warren with 17 carries for 127 yards in the Steelers victory. They head to Cleveland, where Browns fans finally have something to cheer about. Dashaun Watson led a 4th quarter comeback that ended with 14-yard TD pass to Harold Fannin, Jr., his second of the game from Watson. The 2-pt conversion would seal the victory over Carolina, 21-18. That win was a good sign for the Browns, as they proved they could hang with a formidable team on the road. That gives them momentum. The Steelers have momentum of their own with a tough win over a divisional opponent. It’s going to be a tough battle on a short week; however, I like the Steelers to steal a win against their division rival.

Smooth’s Pick: Pittsburgh (17-13)

Sunday, October 4

Indianapolis at Washington
This game is being played in London, England
Line: Colts by 3

This is the first of three NFL games being played in the United Kingdom. As we mentioned before in previous broadcasts, the league will also make stops in Madrid, Paris and Mexico City as part of its global outreach. The Colts snapped a nine-game winless drought dating back to last October and a five-game drought to their divisional rivals. Kicker Spencer Shrader nails the 53-yard field goal to give the Colts the lead for good over Houston, 19-17 was the final. Daniel Jones with 235 yards and a TD to Keenan Allen in the win. They take on the Commanders, who put together a stunning upset of the Super Bowl champs. Marcus Marriota in for the injured Jayden Daniels threw three TD passes, and a pick-6 by Kain Medrano turned out to be the game winner, 33-31 over Seattle was the final. Given it’s considered a neutral site, both teams won’t have a home advantage, but the Colts are favored slightly due to Marriota starting at QB for the Commanders. That shouldn’t be the case. It will however be a close game. It’s all gonna come down to special teams.

Smooth’s Pick: Indianapolis (21-19)

New England at Buffalo
Line: Bills by 6½

Drake Maye had one of his worst games at QB for the Patriots, giving up three turnovers. He was also benched late in the second half, as the offense was completely shut down. New England falls badly to Jacksonville, 35-6. They head to Buffalo to take on the Bills. They were surprised in the first half by the Chargers. Down 10-0 after the 1st quarter, they rallied and tied it at halftime. They would outscore the Bolts 14-6 in the 2nd half, enroute to a 24-16 win. Josh Allen overcame two INTs to rush for two TDs in the Buffalo victory. There no more surprises, as teams have been able to find out what makes Drake Maye tick. However, with the Bills defense shaky at times this season, I’m looking at the Pats getting back to the swing of things against their AFC East rivals. Winning is another story.

Smooth’s Pick: Buffalo (28-24)

NY Jets at Chicago
Line: Bears by 3½

Geno Smith with big day against Detroit, as he threw for 321 yards and 3 TDs. But Gang Green would fall to the Lions on a late TD, 31-24 was the final. Garrett Wilson and Kenyon Sadiq each go over the century mark in receiving yards and a TD in the loss. The head to the Windy City to take on the Bears, Caleb Williams is going to miss action because of a hamstring, and Tyson Bagent was a last-minute scratch. Enter 38-year-old Case Keenum at QB. He pulled off a shocking performance, throwing for 238 yards and three TDs. They crushed Philadelphia, 27-7. Despite the loss to Detroit, Gang Green still played a spirited game and could have been 3-0 right now. Can they keep this pace going? That’s a big unknown, but for both teams, its all going to come down to mistakes.

Smooth’s Pick: Chicago (25-21)

Jacksonville at Cincinnati
Line: Bengals by 2½

Trevor Lawrence with 3 TD passes and the Jacksonville defense forced three turnovers for TDs. They also sacked Drake Maye three times in the win over New England. Liam Coen picked up his 15th win in 20 games as the Jags Head coach. That’s the fastest of any coach that started his NFL career for wins. The Jags head to Cincinnati, where Joe Burrow threw for 282 yards passing and three TDs, but gave up a crucial fumble in the final minute of play that proved to be the fatal blow to the Bengals. They fall to rival Pittsburgh. Jamar Chase, Tee Higggins and Mike Gesicki each with TD receptions in the loss. Lawrence will have his hands full with the Bengals front four. Burrow and the Bengals receivers will also be tested by the Jags secondary. This is also a game that could be a barn burner. I give the edge to the home team.

Smooth’s Pick: Cincinnati (30-27)

Arizona at NY Giants
Line: Giants by 1½

The Cardinals withstood a San Francisco offensive onslaught and made a comeback of their own. Jacoby Brissett went 38 for 52 for 280 yards passing and 3 TDs. But a late rally would come up short. They fall to the 49ers, 36-30. They head to the Meadowlands, where the Giants defense held the Titans to just ONE 1st down in the first half. They also had a key four down stop, and DB Jevon Holland picked off Cam Ward in the end zone with time running down, as the G-Men beat Tennessee, 12-7. Rookie kicker Dominik Zvada accounted for all 12 points in the win. Big Blue also gets more bad news as they lose pass rusher Brian Burns to a season-ending torn ACL. They also made some moves releasing Odell Beckham Jr. and picking up QB JJ MaCarthy via trade and LB Jihad Ward off the practice squad from Minnesota. As for the game itself, Arizona is still a work in progress, but they gave the Niners all they had last Sunday. The Cardinals will try to use their run game to slow the pace and keep ball control. It’s not going to be easy, but the defense of the G-Men is going to have to come through again for a win to happen.

Smooth’s Pick: NY Giants (16-14)

LA Rams at Philadelphia
Line: Rams by 2½

The Rams blew a 16-0 halftime lead and a 26-23 advantage late in the fourth quarter as Denver rallied to beat L.A, 30-26. Matthew Stafford finished the game with 390 yards passing and 2 TDs. Davante Adams with 7 catches for 137 yards receiving in the loss. They head to Philly, where the Eagles played one of their worst offensive games in the Nick Siriani era. Aside from a late TD by Jalen Hurts to close out the half, they were just horrible. Only 22% percent on 3rd downs all game against Chicago. Being at home will help the Eagles get back to normal, but against a tough Rams defense, they’re going to have to somehow get back on track. I think this is a game where they can take advantage by making sure the Rams start slow and hold them to as little points as possible.

This is my upset special!
Smooth’s Pick: Philadelphia (27-21)

Green Bay at Tampa Bay
Line: Packers by 3½

Packer fans are all of the sudden having doubts about this season. This, after being manhandled by Atlanta in their own stadium on Thursday night, 35-14. The Green Bay defense gave up nearly 500 yards of offense to the Falcons. Meanwhile, their own rushing was putrid, only 17 yards on the ground accumulated. They head to Tampa, where the Bucs drop their third straight, and lose their starting QB. Baker Mayfield left the game against Minnesota with an injured thumb. He was also sacked six times, as they fall to the Vikings, 23-16. Mayfield will miss some time and may need surgery. That spells bad news for Bucs head coach Todd Boles, at 0-3, he can’t afford to lose any more games, and with Mayfield out for an extended period, he has to find a way to get his team to respond. Matt LeFleur is also in a pickle. The Thursday night embarrassment puts him in the hot seat, although he may have a better chance getting his team a win given what the Bucs are going through.

Smooth’s Pick: Green Bay (26-13)

Tennessee at Baltimore
Line: Ravens by 11½

The game didn’t start well for the Titans against the Giants. A fumble on the opening kick gave the G-Men instant momentum. Luckily, the turnover didn’t turn into points. The offense was atrocious, with only one 1st down in the 1st half. Cam Ward did get better in the 2nd half, finding Wan’Dale Robinson for a second half score. But it was his late INT in the end zone with time running down that doomed the Titans to a 0-3 start this season. They head to Baltimore, where the Ravens come home from Rio with a thrilling finish for South American NFL fans. Ravens kicker Tyler Loop capped a seven-second drive with a walk-off 56-yard FG, 34-31 Baltimore over Dallas was the final. Lamar Jackson with two TD passes. Derrick Henry with 89 yards and 2 TDs. He passes Eric Dickerson for 9th place in all-time rushing yards. Cam Ward cannot make mistakes like he did last week, and against a tough Baltimore defense, it only gets tougher. Unless the weather forecast is the same as it was last Sunday, I’m afraid the Titans are going to have an even worse time against that Ravens defense.

This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick: Baltimore (33-17)

Dallas at Houston
Line: Texans by 2½

Getting back to that Ravens/Cowboys game in Rio. A crucial moment, as Dax Prescott had an open George Pickens on a third-and-goal at Baltimore’s 5-yard line with 14 seconds remaining in regulation. He threw the ball away and they settled for a game tying FG. With one timeout remaining, that gave Baltimore all they needed to kick that walk-off FG for the win. They return to the states to take on Houston. The Texans fall to 0-3 after a disappointing loss to division rival, Indianapolis. The Houston defense was able to keep the score low led by Will Anderson’s 2½ sacks. But a late start to the offense in the 2nd half led to being the Texans becoming one of 5 winless teams to start the season. CJ Stroud went 16 for 27 for 167 yards passing and a TD in the loss. The Cowboys are also desperate, losers of two out of three games. Much of the blame goes to the defense, which hasn’t tightened up so far this season. On the other hand, the Texans lost some tough matchups that could have gone there way. With both teams desperate for wins, it will all come down to special teams, which favors the Cowboys.

Smooth’s Pick: Dallas (34-31)

Miami at Minnesota
Line: Vikings by 10½

With less than three minutes remaining in the third quarter, Miami had visions of a stunning upset intact when they trailed Kansas City, 14-10. But a roughing the passer penalty put those dreams to rest. They never got their offense going as they fall to the Chiefs, 24-10. They also had some bad news as they also lose their big time running back, De’Von Achane with a season-ending with a torn ACL. The Fish head to Minneapolis on Sunday. Don’t look now, but the Vikings are in 1st place in the NFC North. Not only that, they’re undefeated at 3-0, after a big win against Tampa Bay. Kyler Murray found Jordan Addison 5 times for 90 yards and a TD. However, Justin Jefferson left the game with an ankle injury. He’s considered day-to-day for Sunday. Even without Jefferson, the Vikings have proven that they’re able to be competitive in this early NFL season. A win against a weaker opponent this Sunday can only improve their standing in the NFC.

Smooth’s Pick: Minnesota (38-12)

Kansas City at Las Vegas
Line: Chiefs by 4½

Patrick Mahomes with 246 yards passing and 2 TDs. He withstood a vicious sack from Miami’s Chop Robinson, where the DT landed with his full weight on him. The sack ended up being an unnecessary roughness penalty and didn’t count. Never the less, KC escapes Miami with the win and remain undefeated at 3-0. They head to sin city for a divisional matchup against the Raiders, who are also 3-0 under head coach Klint Kuibiak. That’s their best start since 2021. Kirk Cousins with 22-of-33 for 248 yards and three TDs in the 35-24 win over New Orleans. This is a crucial game for the Silver and Black and will show whether they’re for real, or they’re pretenders. Even though I like them to play hard and give KC a run for their money at home, I still think the Chiefs will steal a win on the road against their division rival.

Smooth’s Pick: Kansas City (23-19)

Denver at San Francisco
Line: 49ers by 2½

The Broncos could not get any offense going in the 1st half, and it looked like they were going to get blown out of their own building. But Bo Nix led his team to a 30-point comeback in the 2nd half, with three TDs including the game winning rushing score against Rams on Sunday night. The defense gets an INT during the last play of the game to win it for Denver. They head to Santa Clara, where Brock Purdy with another offensive juggernaut, 331 total yards, including 297 in the air and 4 TDs, as they beat Arizona. However, they continue to be bitten by the injury bug, as they lost Mike Evans and Trent Williams during the game. Both injuries are considered short term and they’re expected to play this Sunday. Very good news for the Niners, as they could use all the offensive weaponry they can find. If the defense can rattle Nix and force the run game, it could be a long day for the Broncos. However, I like the Niners to win a closely contested, high scoring matchup.

Smooth’s Pick: San Francisco (31-28)

LA Chargers at Seattle
Line: Seahawks by 6½

Things started off pretty good for the Bolts, getting out in front early against Buffalo. But after that, their offense just could not get things on track. They drop to 0-3 on the year, and it’s not getting any easier for the Bolts, as they head to the Emerald city to take on the Seahawks. Sam Darnold returned to action. He threw for 379 yards and 4 TDs. But he gave up two INTs, including that pick-6, as they lose to Washington. Jaxon Smith Njigba with 10 catches for 128 yards receiving and 2 scores in the loss. The Bolts just have bad luck to start the season. Jim Harbaugh can’t afford to go 0-4. That would seriously ruin their playoff chances down the road. If they can get out front and keep the crowd out of the game, they have a chance for the upset. But with Darnold back at 100% percent, it will be tough for the Bolts to pull the upset.

Smooth’s Pick: Seattle (28-17)

Detroit at Carolina
Line: Lions by 2½

Detroit was looking at a possible upset loss against the Jets last Sunday, but it was the heroics of Chuck Clark who sacked Geno Smith late in the game, to seal the victory for the Lions. Jared Goff with 168 yards passing and 2 TDs in the win. Jamyir Gibbs almost reaching the century mark in rushing. He also had two TD in the win. The pride heads to Charlotte to take on the Panthers. Carolina had two chances in the final two minutes at a drive to tie or take the lead. But the Browns’ defense got the job done to ensure victory in Cleveland’s home opener. Bryce Young with 291 yards passing, and a TD. He also was sacked 3 times and gave up an INT in the loss. This will be the first Sunday night prime time game for the Panthers in quite some time. This is a chance to showcase Young’s talents. However, there’s also a risk of embarrassment after their defense was torched during week 1. The Lions offense is certainly capable of doing that, but with the Lions unpredictability the last three weeks, its anyone guess which Detroit team will show up. Never the less I do think the Lions get it done, but they’ll have to work for it.

Smooth’s Pick: Detroit (22-18)

Monday, October 5

Atlanta at New Orleans
Line: Saints by 3

Michael Penix Jr. was just what the doctor ordered for the dirty birds, as they put together an offensive slaughter on Green Bay. He hooked up Drake London 9 times for 194 yards, including a 68-yard strike. Bijian Robinson with 194 yards rushing, 211 total and 2 TDs in the victory. They head to the big easy for a NFC South division matchup with the Saints. The Saints looked like they were going to grab a pretty convincing win on Sunday, thanks to a career day from quarterback Tyler Shough. He threw four touchdowns on the day. But it all went south, as Raiders defense got to Shough and forced a fumble, which led to a go-ahead lead and the victory for Las Vegas. Final numbers for Shough, 29-42 for 255 yards and those 4 scores. The Saints continue to play competitive football, and they could easily be 3-0 right now. They will have their hands full against a Dirty Birds offense that finally woke up last Thursday. The extra couple of days rest will help Atlanta. But I think the Saints are primed for a victory, which would be sweet against a divisional opponent.

Smooth’s Pick: New Orleans (26-21)

And that’s Smooth’s NFL Football Picks. We’ll see you later!

Smooth’s NFL Football Picks 2026 – Week 3 (A Devastating Diagnosis for Giants QB Jaxson Dart)

Week 3 – A number of big upsets last week, we had a brutal finish beating the spread on many games we selected, and big new concerning the future of one of the NY Giants biggest stars. Let’s see how we did.

Last Week’s Results

Head-to-Head: 9-7
Against the Spread: 5-7-4

Season to Date

Head-to-Head: 22-10
Against the Spread: 15-10-7

Thursday, September 24

Atlanta at Green Bay
Line: Packers by 7½

The dirty birds laid a rotten egg in their home opener on Sunday. Cooper Rush in his second start at QB went 10-for-17 for only 86 yards passing and two INTs in the 36-3 shellacking by road favorite, Carolina. They head north to Lambeau Field, where the Packers made a big comeback, down by 10 in the 4th quarter against the Jets. They get a TD pass from Jordan Love to Christian Watson, then two FGs from Trey Smack, including the game winner in OT, 20-17 was the final, and they get their first win of the season. Not a good start for Kevin Stefanski as head coach. Much of that goes to both of his top QBs being down. Tua Tagovailoa could return this Thursday, but on a short week that might be wishful thinking. This is a good chance for the Pack to get some momentum on a weaker opponent.

Smooth’s Pick: Green Bay (26-14)

Sunday, September 27

Tennessee at NY Giants
Line: Giants by 2½

The G-Men got some very bad news. They lose Jaxson Dart for the rest of the season. He suffered a knee injury in Monday night’s matchup against the Rams. After an MRI, that doctors found the condition was worse than expected. His ACL is intact, but will need to repair the meniscus, which will require surgery. Giants officials are saying with rehab, Dart should will be ready for the 2027 season. For now, the starting job goes to backup Jameis Winston. He did not fare well at all on Monday night, throwing for 119 yards and INT. The Rams sent the G-Men back down to earth with a 28-6 loss. They return home to host a couple of former NY head coaches that used to call the Meadowlands home, former Jets and current Titans head coach Robert Saleh and former Giants head coach Brian Daboll who now runs Tennessee’s offense. The Titans nearly pulled off the upset against Philadelphia on Sunday, but they suffered a heartbreaking 24-20 loss with 9 seconds to go in regulation. Cam Ward with two rushing TDs in the loss. This is a winnable game for the G-Men, even without Jaxson Dart. The Titans defense isn’t as dynamic as the Rams, but they’re still capable of surprising teams. If Winston can rebound from that horrible Monday night performance, they can definitely get back on track. This team has too many talented players to go down in flames, and coach John Harbaugh has a plan ready for Sunday and beyond.

Smooth’s Pick: NY Giants (24-16)

LA Chargers at Buffalo
Line: Bills by 7½

Should Jim Harbaugh be concerned in Tinseltown? Maybe he should, as his Bolts drop their second straight, this time, an upset loss to Las Vegas. The defense gives up two big TDs in the 2nd half, and lose it, 26-14. The Bolts head to Western New York to take on the high-flying Bills, who are playing hot at 2-0 to start the season. They got off to a 21-0 lead on Detroit, and didn’t look back. 41-31 was the final. Josh Allen is already making his claim for NFL MVP honors with 5 TDs on Thursday night; he has 9 on the season already. James Cook with 139 yards on the ground and a score in the victory. The only concern for the Bills is the defense; they gave up 30+ points in two games. If Justin Herbert find time, the Bolts may get 30+ for the third straight week. However, with Josh Allen continuing his hot hand, I like the Bills to make three straight wins in a row.

Smooth’s Pick: Buffalo (38-24)

Carolina at Cleveland
Line: Panthers by 2½

The Panthers were favorites on the road for the first time in 5 years, and they made it work. The defense tightened up after giving up 59 points the week before, and Bryce Young threw for 3 TDs in the win over Atlanta. The head to Cleveland, where the Browns pull off a win after heavy rains in Tampa led to 2-hr weather delay. Afterwards, Deshaun Watson threw for two TD passes in the 23-19 upset victory over the Bucs. The Panthers are road favorites again, but this time the spread isn’t as much, which indicates a more competitive game. Still, I like the Panthers to come out on top.

Smooth’s Pick: Carolina (21-18)

NY Jets at Detroit
Line: Lions by 6½

They were 11 minutes away from a 2-0 start, their first since 2015. Instead, a fourth-quarter collapse and an OT loss is all the Jets have to show for it. Even worse, they will be without WR Arian Smith for the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Gang Green heads to the motor city to take on the Lions, who have to be concerned about the state of their team. 446 yards in total offense given up by the defense in that loss to Buffalo on Thursday night. Jared Goff did throw for 324 yards and 4 TDs, but he turned over the ball twice. Amon-Ra St. Brown with 9 catches. 142 yards receiving and two TDs in the losing effort. The Lions could easily be at 0-2 on the season, and a lot of those problems goes to the defense. After two solid efforts, Gang Green is beginning to come together as a team. They’ll need to somehow find a way to stop Jared Goff and company from scoring points. Tough to accomplish playing in a dome on the road.

Smooth’s Pick: Detroit (27-16)

Houston at Indianapolis
Line: Texans by 2½

CJ Stroud threw for 364 yards passing on Sunday. Unfortunately, none of his passes made the end zone. In fact, the Texans only accounted for two FG’s, as they were outplayed by Cincinnati, 20-6 was the final. They head to Indianapolis to take on the Colts, who gave Kansas City everything they had, and then some on Sunday night. Jonathan Taylor with two TD runs, Daniel Jones would find Lawrence Treadwell for 48 yards to keep the drive alive. It would all go down to the final play in OT, where the Chiefs escape with a 33-30 win. At 0-2, the Texans need to come together and get a win. This is even more important because it’s a divisional opponent. This will be a tough battle between the two, but they way the Colts played against KC, I like them to keep the momentum going.

This is my upset special!
Smooth’s Pick: Indianapolis (23-19)

Kansas City at Miami
Line: Chiefs by 11½

Patrick Mahomes with 382 yards passing and three TDs, one to his favorite target Travis Kelce, who caught 9 passes for 101 yards receiving on the night. The Chiefs win it on a Harrison Butker FG with only a second to go in the OT period to win it for KC. They head to South Florida to take on the Fish. They couldn’t get any kind of offense going against San Francisco. A Malik Willis pass to Ryan Miller for a 77-yard TD was much too late. They get pummeled, 35-13. This is slowly turning into an ugly situation for the Fish, and with the Chiefs coming to town, it’s not getting any easier. Somehow, they need to stop the KC offense and keep the score low. But with Mahomes back to his old self, I’d say it’s gonna be a long day in South Florida.

This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick: Kansas City (37-14)

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Line: Bengals by 3½

Joe Burrow and the stagnant Bengals offense finally came to life after six straight ineffective quarters. He overcame being sacked 5 times to finish the game with 2 TD passes in the win against Houston. They head to the Steel city to take on Pittsburgh. Aaron Rodgers struggled to get the offense going. He fumbled deep in Steelers territory, and gave up the score. They can only account for a FG, as they lose to New England, 20-3. With both teams at .500, a win this Sunday will be very lucrative in the AFC North. I see a hard-fought battle between the two teams, and it will all come down to special teams.

Smooth’s Pick: Cincinnati (19-17)

Seattle at Washington
Line: Seahawks by 6½

Jaxon Smith-Njigba with an 82-yard TD run on the 2nd play of the game. That was only the beginning of the pounding Arizona would receive against their NFC West rivals. JSN would end the day with 9 catches for 155 yards receiving and 3 TDs. 31-7, Seahawks was the final. They head to the nation’s capital to take on the Commanders, who got bad news on their star QB Jayden Daniels. He left the game against Dallas with a dislocated elbow, and injury so severe Fox Sports analyst Tom Brady yelled an expletive live on air. He quickly apologized, but Washington could not recover from his departure. They lose it, 37-20. Stephan Diggs with 2 TDs in the losing effort. Marcus Mariotta gets the call at QB for the Commanders. His experience helps them in backup situations. There’s a chance we may see the return of Sam Darnold, who’s been out of action with a hip injury. The Seahawks have been fine with Drew Lock as backup. It will all come down to defense, and the Seahawks have the best in the league.

Smooth’s Pick: Seattle (26-12)

New England at Jacksonville
Line: Jags by 2½

TreyVon Henderson with a TD, and a late turnover by Aaron Rodgers falls into the hands of Elijah Ponder who returns the ball 19 yards for the score to seal the Patriots victory over Pittsburgh. They head to North Florida, where the Jags offense hit a speed bump after scoring 30+ points the week before. Only 189 yards passing for Trevor Lawrence. He also threw a pick as Jacksonville loses to Denver, 20-13. These two teams are at .500, as well. However, the Jags have a slightly better offense than the Patriots. Again, defense will be the deciding factor, and being at home, I like the Jags to come thru with a win.

Smooth’s Pick: Jacksonville (20-14)

Arizona at San Francisco
Line: 49ers by 8½

The Cardinals offense was stagnant against the Seattle defense, only 151 total yards. They were also outplayed on time of possession in the loss to the Seahawks. They head to Santa Clara, where Christian McCaffrey scored twice in the 49ers rout of the Dolphins, becoming just the third player in NFL history to score at least 50 touchdowns for multiple franchises. Brock Purdy was almost perfect, going 20 for 22 with 287 yards passing two TDs and a rushing score in the dominant victory over Miami. However, they’re beginning to experience the injury bug once again, as they lose WR Mike Evans and Demarcus Robinson for this Sunday. That means more reliance on McCaffrey. Unless the Cards can utilize more of the run game, and slow the game down, they could have a chance. But the Niners are still the heavy favorite at home.

Smooth’s Pick: San Francisco (24-17)

Minnesota at Tampa Bay
Line: Vikings by 1½

Led by coordinator Brian Flores, the Vikings defense was on full display, neutralizing a Chicago offense that scored 50+ points the week before. Three FGs by Will Reichard was all Minnesota needed to win, 9-3 was the final. They head to Tampa, where there are some NFL critics saying Bucs head coach Todd Bolles will be the first to be fired during the season. After last week’s ugly loss to Cleveland, that may well happen. They fall to 0-2 after an ugly loss to Cleveland. Baker Mayfield with a TD and an INT in the losing cause. I’m afraid Mayfield will experience more pressure with the Vikings defense, and with Kyler Murray making his return after two weeks out of action, they may get more offensive power than they had the week before.

Smooth’s Pick: Minnesota (21-19)

Baltimore vs. Dallas
Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
Line: Ravens by 2½

This will be the third NFL game played in Brazil, and the second international of the season, they’ll also make stops in London, Munich, Mexico City and two new venues in Madrid and Paris. As for the two teams, the Ravens suffered a late game collapse on Sunday. Up 17-9 in the fourth quarter, their defense gave up 15 points, and they fall to New Orleans, 24-17. Lamar Jackson threw for a TD, Derick Henry also found the end zone in the loss. They head to Dallas, where Dax Prescott with 279 yards passing and 4 TDs, he becomes the franchise’s all-time leader in passing TDs in the win over Washington. CeeDee Lamb with 8 catches for 153 yards and 2 of those TDs from Prescott. This is pretty much a neutral site matchup, and both teams are evenly matched. However, I give the edge to the Ravens, as the Cowboys defense got a break with the Washington victory last Sunday. Look for Henry to run roughshod over the defense.

Smooth’s Pick: Baltimore (33-24)

Las Vegas at New Orleans
Line: Saints by 3½

Kirk Cousins threw for three TDs, two of those scores were to Cody White, and the Silver and Black climb to 2-0 on the season in their win over division rival, the Chargers. Tre Tucker with 5 catches for 119 yards and a score in the win. They head to the big easy to take on the Saints. New Orleans scored 15 unanswered points in the game’s final quarter, Tyler Shough threw a 21-yard touchdown to Chris Olave and then scored a rushing touchdown with :90 seconds left to put the Saints ahead for good for the upset win over Baltimore. Both of these teams have been a surprise this early in the season, and they may just continue the momentum. His could be a very exciting matchup that could come down to the game’s final play. I like the home team to sneak out with a win.

Smooth’s Pick: New Orleans (23-16)

LA Rams at Denver
Line: Rams by 2½

The Giants young and depleted secondary just was no match for the Rams receivers. Davonte Adams tore up the cornerbacks for 195 yards and two TDs. LA gets their 1st win of the season and climb to .500. They head to the mile high city to take on Denver. After a rough outing last Monday night, the Broncos offense came back to life. Bo Nix with 288 yards passing and a TD, as they beat Jacksonville. Jaylen Waddle with his first 100+ yard game for Denver. Both teams bounced back from humiliating losses during week one with convincing victories, which should make for a very exciting Sunday night matchup. If the Broncos defense can catch the Rams offense in a slow start, it could catch LA off guard. However, I like Matthew Stafford and company to overcome the road pressure get a second win of the season.

Smooth’s Pick: LA Rams (27-21)

Monday, September 28

Philadelphia at Chicago
Line: Eagles by 4½

For two games in a row, Philly almost lost. Last Sunday, they avoided disaster when Jalen Hurts found Darius Cooper in the end zone with only seconds left to beat Tennessee. Hurts with 264 yards passing and 2 TDs, but he also was picked off twice in the win. They head to the windy city, where Bears fans were given a huge let down. Not only did they lose the game to Minnesota, not only could they not get a sustained offense going, but they also lost Caleb Williams to a hamstring injury. Right now, his status is week-to-week, and that could be disastrous. Williams is listed as doubtful for Monday night. Tyson Bagent would get the start if he doesn’t go. That would mean more of a run game against Philly. The Eagles defensive front is capable of making it a very tough to get points. Having said that, I think Hurts and company can fly out of the windy city with a narrow win.

Smooth’s Pick: Philadelphia (17-10)

Smooth’s NFL Football Picks 2026 – Week 2 (Put It In The Books!)

The NFL is in full swing with the completion of the first week of 2026 season. A few upsets, took place. Let’s take a look at how we did.

Last Week’s Results

Head-to-Head: 13-3
Against the Spread: 10-3-3

Now, here’s our picks for week 2.

Thursday, September 17

Detroit at Buffalo
Line: Bills by 3½

The Lions were our guaranteed lock to win against New Orleans. But they damn sure almost blew it in overtime. After a TD pass, the Detroit defense came up big, breaking up a two-point conversion, and sealing a 31-30 win over the Saints. They head to Western New York, where the Bills will formerly christen their brand-new Highmark Stadium into action on Thursday night. Last Sunday in Houston, the Buffalo defense came up big despite giving up a lot a points, and Josh Allen drove the offense 96 yards in just over 90 seconds for the score, escaping with a 36-31 win. Giving up that many points to a lesser team like New Orleans should be a big concern, especially having to go against a high-powered offense like the Bills. They need to tighten up their run defense if they have any chance to win. Buffalo also needs to shore up their defense, as well. They gave up a ton of yards to Houston on the road. On a short week, I like the Bills to keep their luck going and take out the visiting Lions.

Smooth’s Pick: Buffalo (26-21)

Sunday, September 20

Carolina at Atlanta
Line: Falcons by 1½

The Panthers defense folded like a deck of cards, giving up 552 total yards to Chicago. They were pummeled, 59-37 at home. Despite the loss Bryce Young did throw for 331 yards passing and three TDs. They head to the ATL where the Falcons were forced to call 3rd string QB Cooper Rush into action after starter Tua Tagovailoa was injured, and backup Michael Penix, Jr. was inactive. He threw for two INTs in the 20-13 loss to Pittsburgh. Bijan Robinson with a TD and 173 total yards in the loss. In this early NFC South matchup, both teams can’t afford to lose ground, when the division title may depend on the better record. I can’t see the Panthers giving up that many points for the second week in a row, especially with the offense problems the dirty birds are having. My feeing is this will be a low scoring affair, with the home team sneaking out with a win.

Smooth’s Pick: Atlanta (17-14)

Minnesota at Chicago
Line: Bears by 5½

Kyler Murray was knocked out of the game against Green Bay, giving Carson Wentz another chance to prove his worth in the NFL. After being down by 12 in the 3rd quarter he would throw two of his three TD passes to seal the win over Green Bay, 39-22 was the final. The Vikings head to the windy city to take on the Bears, who piled on 59 points on Carolina. That’s the first time they scored over 50 points since 2012. Much of that firepower was on the ground with D’Andre Swift getting 124 yards rushing and 3 TD’s, Kyle Monongai with a 61-yard TD run putting him over the century mark in rushing for the day. Caleb Willams also with 4 TDs (2 passing, 2 rushing). The Bears offense will be tested against a much better defense in the Vikings. The only issue will be whether Wentz will be able to gather the same effort on the road this Sunday. In this divisional matchup, anything’s possible.

Smooth’s Pick: Chicago (21-17)

Philadelphia at Tennessee
Line: Eagles by 6½

Philly got off to an early lead on Washington with a couple of Jalen Hurts TD passes to Dallas Goedert and Dontaviyon Wicks. But in the 2nd half, the offense sputtered. They finally came alive late 4th quarter when Hurts found Goedert in the end zone for the 2nd time in the game. The defense prevented a two-point conversion, and that sealed a 24-22 win over the Commanders. The Eagles head to Nashville, where Robert Saleh’s debut at Titans head coach was a downer. Cam Ward struggled against the Jets defense, getting sacked three times in the 23-10 loss. Rumblings are beginning to show about Ward’s ability to lead this team after the poor showing last Sunday. It doesn’t get any easier with a tough defense from Philly coming to town. Their only hope is if the Eagles offense will slow down like they did in the 2nd half of their game against Washington. Can’t see that happening, though.

Smooth’s Pick: Philadelphia (27-13)

Pittsburgh at New England
Line: Patriots by 5½

TJ Watt became only the second player in NFL history to record at least 10 interceptions and at least 100 sacks in his career. He joins Hall-of-Famer Julius Peppers in that category. The one INT he had last Sunday was returned for a pick-six in the Steelers win over Atlanta. Aaron Rodgers with a TD on 221 yards passing in the victory, the first for Mike McCarthy as Pittsburgh head coach. The Steelers head to Foxborough, where the Patriots held off Seattle’s offense for much of the game. But it was three INTs by Drake Maye including one in the end zone with time running down in the 4th quarter that made the difference, 13-10 Seahawks was the final. They also get bad news, as newly acquired WR AJ Brown suffered a high ankle sprain in the loss. He’ll be out for at least four weeks, which could mean trouble for their pass offense. They’ll have to depend more on the run game, but against a Steelers defense that had been stingy last Sunday, points could be hard to come by. Either way, I like the Patriots, but not the points.

Smooth’s Pick: New England (22-20)

Green Bay at NY Jets
Line: Packers by 3½

Jordan Love found Christian Watson in the end zone twice in their game against Minnesota. They had a 22-10 lead in the 3rd quarter, but the defense couldn’t stop the Vikings and their offense. They also had a few miscues, including a turnover deep in their own territory. The Pack heads to the Meadowlands, where Jets head coach Aaron Glenn gets a much-needed win over Tennessee to get the season started. Gang Green scored on its very first drive of the game, as they picked up 367 total yards in the victory, which is a very positive start of the year. The pressure is all on the Pack after that opening season loss. Another loss could put them in trouble at 0-2. Unless their offense can regroup against a similar defensive scheme, it could be a long day for them. I still see the Pack bouncing back from that loss, but it won’t be easy.

Smooth’s Pick: Green Bay (19-16)

Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Line: Bucs by 9½

Dashaun Watson’s INT on the first drive of the game set the tone all day long. He was also sacked five times and gave up a fumble, as the Browns were pummeled by Jacksonville, 34-10. They head to Tampa to take on the Bucs, where rookie Josiah Trotter, the son of former Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Jeremiah Trotter had a big day in his NFL debut. He had a sack and pick-6, but unfortunately, the Bucs got outplayed by Cincinnati offensively, 33-27 was the final. Baker Mayfield was sacked 4 times in the loss. Luck for them, the Browns head to town with a lot of issues, on both sides of the field. If Mayfield can find time with his receivers, it should be a productive day.

This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick: Tampa Bay (31-14)

New Orleans at Baltimore
Line: Ravens by 9½

Tyler Shough had a big 2nd half for New Orleans against Detroit. He led a 21-point comeback and ended the game with 410 yards passing, and 3 TDs. But it was a 2-point attempt that failed on the final play in OT that made the difference in the loss. They head to the Baltimore, where Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry left off where they started with big numbers in the 41-23 win over Indianapolis. Jackson with 324 yards, a passing and a rushing score, Henry with 144 yards rushing and 3 TDs in the win. This is gonna be another big challenge for a young team like the Saints, but with a team as experienced like the Ravens, a comeback could be next to impossible. Look for the duo of Jackson and Henry for another big set of numbers.

Smooth’s Pick: Baltimore (37-20)

Cincinnati at Houston
Line: Texans by 2½

Joe Burrow with 254 yards passing and a TD, and the Bengals defense recovered three straight fumbles against Tampa Bay in the win. They head to Houston, where newly acquired RB David Montgomery scored three TDs against Buffalo, and held Josh Allen in check for most of the game. But the defense could not hold late, as they drop their home opener to the Bills. The Bengals defense will be tested with a highly mobile QB like CJ Stroud, and Burrow will be under the gun with the Texans defense. In the end, I like the home team to eek out a win courtesy of special teams.

Smooth’s Pick: Houston (20-17)

Jacksonville at Denver
Line: Broncos by 2½

Trevor Lawrence starts the season with 4 TD passes, and Josh Hines-Allen & Travon Walker each shared a sack in the Jags dominating win over Cleveland. Jacksonville heads to the mile high city to take on the Broncos, who started their season with a dud against AFC West rival, Kansas City on Monday night. All kinds of issues with turnovers and stopping the run. They lose it, 31-10. Not the way to start the season if you want to improve on that runner-up status in the AFC Championship game. The Jags won’t be a pushover with their defense, either. However, I think the Broncos can recover and play much better football. It will be hard fought, though.

Smooth’s Pick: Denver (23-21)

Las Vegas at LA Chargers
Line: Bolts by 6½

Kurt Cousins overcame two INTs to throw 3 TDs, Ashton Jeanty rushed for over 100 yards, he had 147 total and two receiving TDs, as the Raiders beat Miami, 27-13. DE Kwity Pane with 2 of the Silver and Black’s five sacks on the day. They head to So-Fi Stadium to take on the Bolts, who were stunned by Arizona. They fell behind early, and didn’t recover. 26-14, Cardinals with the upset victory. The Bolts’ run game was non-existent, only 81 yards rushing on the day, and they were caught off guard by a Cardinals team who played inspired football. Las Vegas is also an upstart team with nothing to lose. However, I think Jim Harbaugh will regroup and get his team ready for Sunday.

Smooth’s Pick: LA Chargers (26-14)

Washington at Dallas
Line: Cowboys by 3½

It was a slow start for Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. They didn’t get busy until the 2nd quarter with a Jackory Croskey-Merritt 1-yard TD run, but the extra point would be blocked. An unsportsmanlike penalty on Debow Samuel’s first TD for Washington prevented a 2-point attempt. The Commanders got close late with a TD pass to Antonio Williams, but a two-point attempt would fail, leading to a Washington loss. They head to the Metroplex to take on the Cowboys, who have a major problem on defense. Last year, they gave up a ton of yards and points to the opposition. They tried to fix that, bringing only 3 starters back from last year. But the result was the same issues, 166 yards given up on the ground. They lose to the Giants, 28-20. We’ll tell you how the G-Men pulled off the upset later in the broadcast. The Commanders nearly pulled off the upset against the Eagles by playing stingy on 3rd downs. Look for the same effort against the Cowboys this Sunday. However, Dax Prescott and company still has a strong enough offense to pull through. Now if only their patchwork defense can come together.

Smooth’s Pick: Dallas (24-21)

Seattle at Arizona
Line: Seahawks by 4½

Getting back to the week one season opener between the Seahawks and the Patriots. Sam Darnold was hurt on the fifth play of the game. He was replaced by backup Drew Lock. He hooked up with Jaxson Smith-Njigba for a 45-yard TD pass in the 4th quarter, and the defense set the tone the rest of the way with three INT’s including one on the Patriots final drive with time running down to seal the win. They head to the desert to face rival, Arizona. Last Sunday, Trey McBride with 9 catches and a TD reception, Jeremiyah Love with his first NFL TD in the Cardinals’ upset victory over the Chargers. Mike LeFleur used his skills as the Rams defensive coordinator to give his team the necessary tools win his first NFL game as Cardinals head coach. He’ll need to somehow get his offense to respond against one of the toughest defenses in the league. They got a break with Darnold being out at QB for this game. They’ll need to keep the score low for any chance to win. However, I like the defending Super Bowl champs to steal the win.

Smooth’s Pick: Seattle (19-14)

Miami at San Francisco
Line: 49ers by 13½

Tough day for new Dolphins starting QB Malik Willis, as he was sacked five times. He also threw an INT in the loss against Las Vegas. The Fish head west to Santa Clara, California to take on the 49ers, who took a full week in Australia to get accustomed to their surroundings. It was the right decision, as they dominated their NFC West rivals. Brock Purdy with 3 TD passes as San Fran beats the Rams, 27-7. A solid start for a team that was riddled with injuries last season. They’re coming home to face a Miami team that is struggling to find it’s footing with new coaching and a new QB. The Fish’s only chance at an improbable upset is to utilize their only real weapon. DeVon Achane at RB. Keep the score low and hope for the best on defense. Unfortunately, there’s a reason that point spread is so high.

Smooth’s Pick: San Francisco (38-17)

Indianapolis at Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 7

Jonathan Taylor with two rushing TDs and 121 total yards in the losing effort by the Colts against Baltimore. Daniel Jones with a TD pass and an INT. He was also sacked twice. Indy heads to KC, where free agent acquisition Keneth Walker III had a big night against Denver on Monday night, 173 rushing yards with a TD in the Chiefs victory. Patrick Mahomes with 184 yards and two TDs in his return from injury. It’s safe to say that the Chiefs are back, especially with the way they handled their division rivals. The Colts have some work to do on Sunday night, and I don’t think they’re going to be very successful at it.

Smooth’s Pick: Kansas City (30-14)

Monday, September 21

NY Giants at LA Rams
Line: Rams by 7½

Head coach John Harbaugh made some big changes in the Giants preparation for game day, and on Sunday night, they looked focused and ready to go. The G-Men took control of the game from the opening kickoff to the final whistle. Jaxson Dart with 3 TD passes, two of those to TE Isaiah Likely, which was a career high for him. Cam Skattebo was a bull in the run game, picking up 4.5 yards per carry and a TD in the win over Dallas. Big Blue heads to LA to take on the Rams on Monday night. The Rams decided to take a flight to Melbourne, Australia the day before the game and arrive for kickoff on pacific coast time, similar to what they did with their other overseas game. I think the 18 hours may have been too much, as LA came out flat on both sides of the ball against the 49ers. They were without Aaron Donald, who missed the flight for health reasons, and now they’ll be without Myles Garrett, who will have to have surgery on his knee. He suffered the injury in the game last Thursday. With their two big defensive weapons out, this is a chance for the G-Men to take an even bigger plunge. The Giants don’t play very well on Monday night, but that could change. We’ll see if last Sunday’s win was for real. I say, they are!

This is my upset special!
Smooth’s Pick: NY Giants (27-23)

And that’s Smooth’s NFL Football Picks for week 2. We’ll see you later!

Smooth’s NFL Football Picks 2026 – Week 1 (Let’s Get This Party Started!)

It’s finally here! I’ve been waiting 7 months for kickoff to happen. This week, the NFL goes to the land down under for the first time in history. Let’s get this party started.

Wednesday, September 9

New England at Seattle
Line: Seahawks by 5½

Seven months ago, the Seahawks won their second Vince Lombardi trophy at the expense of the New England Patriots, and on this night, they get to raise the championship banner. All of it takes place with the team they beat looking on. This rematch won’t necessarily be close, with Seattle handling one of the best defensive units in the NFL. Last year, Seattle’s defense ranked first in preventing teams from getting into the endzone. They were also third in rushing defense, and was top 10 in total defense. It’s truly a nightmare draw to open the season for New England. Sam Darnold and JSN will do enough on the other side of the ball to cover the spread. Don’t overthink this one.

Smooth’s Pick: Seattle (28-17)

Thursday, September 10

San Francisco vs. LA Rams
From Melbourne, Australia
Line: Rams by 3½

This will be the NFL’s maiden voyage to the home of Crocodile Dundee and Mad Max. The game will be played on a 100,000-seat stadium known for playing cricket. The facility was built way back in 1853, and has hosted the 1956 Summer Olympics. Australian Rules Football is also six teams that call the stadium home, and it’s also the home of the AFL Grand Final. As for the game itself, the Rams will have Aaron Donald back and will pair him with new acquisition Myles Garrett. That gives LA a distinct advantage on the defensive front. As for San Francisco, Brock Purdy returns with a different set of receivers. Injuries decimated their season last year. I expect a very close game, especially on a neutral site.

Smooth’s Pick: LA Rams (20-16)

Sunday, September 13

Tampa Bay at Cincinnati
Line: Bengals by 3½

Vegas is expecting big numbers from Joe Burrow this weekend, upwards to 300 yards against the Bucs defense. However, I’m curious on how Baker Mayfield does against that newfangled Bengals defense. Something tells me he may have some trouble against them.

Smooth’s Pick: Cincinnati (26-17)

New Orleans at Detroit
Line: Lions by 7½

The Saints didn’t have a great pre-season, having been shut out of one game 35-0. Let’s hope that wasn’t a sign of things to come for them. They’ll have to travel to the motor city against a tough Lions team. Unless the Saints come out of the gate quick, they’re not gonna last in this game. Either way, I like the Lions to win their opener at home.

This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick: Detroit (30-19)

NY Jets at Tennessee
Line: Titans by 2½

This is also a must game for Jets head coach Aaron Glenn. Sorry to say that with the first game of the season. But Gang Green needs to come out smoking. They’ll have to do that against what could be a much-improved Titans squad with Robert Saleh coaching with a chip on his shoulder. You can bet he wants this game badly. I say, he gets it.

Smooth’s Pick: Tennessee (20-12)

Baltimore at Indianapolis
Line: Ravens by 3½

Looking forward to seeing how Lamar Jackson will shape up with a new head coach and a few new receivers to throw to. The question will be how much in the tank does Derrick Henry have? Meanwhile, Daniel Jones returns and I’m curious on if his history of injury problems will hamper his production. This will be a tough matchup on both sides, But I think Jackson will sneak out with a win.

This is my upset special!
Smooth’s Pick: Baltimore (24-21)

Atlanta at Pittsburgh
Line: Steelers by 2½

New head coaches on both sides of the gridiron. Kevin Stefanski with the dirty birds, Mike McCarthy in the steel city. As of this recording, Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa are still duking it our for the starting QB position. Whoever wins, will have a tough go against Pittsburgh. Aaron Rodgers will look to re-kindle the magic with McCarthy that gave them a Super Bowl title in Green Bay. As for this game, I like the Steelers to take it, but it will be tough going.

Smooth’s Pick: Pittsburgh (23-19)

Chicago at Carolina
Line: Bears by 2½

The Bears look for an NFC North title for the second straight year in a row. Caleb Williams will have different receivers to target, and their defense has improved. They’ll get a test on the road against last year’s surprise team, the Panthers. Unfortunately, everyone won’t be surprised this time around. It will still be tough for the Bears to gather a victory.

Smooth’s Pick: Chicago (20-17)

Cleveland at Jacksonville
Line: Jags by 7½

Deshaun Watson was named the starting quarterback for week 1, and the only reason I could think of is that the Browns invested so much money in him that it would be a waste to have him on the bench. We’ll see if the two years away is a plus, or a minus. Meanwhile, the Jags look for their second straight division title. I like Trevor Lawrence to light up the scoreboard this weekend against a defense that has lost its best player.

Smooth’s Pick: Jacksonville (33-13)

Buffalo at Houston
Line: Bills by 1½

The Bills start with a new head coach and hope to get on the right footing. However, they have a tough game against the Texans in Houston. The last time these two teams faced each other, the Bills got smoked. However, I don’t think the Texans will have it easier this time around.

Smooth’s Pick: Buffalo (26-21)

Miami at Las Vegas
Line: Raiders by 3½

The Fish could be swimming in bitter waters this season. Malik Willis gets his chance to shine as the starting QB. However, he won’t have as many high-flying targets as before. Meanwhile, as expected, Kirk Cousins was named the Raiders starting QB. It’s almost certain that rookie Fernando Mendoza’s NFL debut will take place sometime this season. If the Silver and Black get blown out at home, that will definitely be the case. But I don’t see that happening.

Smooth’s Pick: Las Vegas (17-10)

Green Bay at Minnesota
Line: Packers by 1½

Rival week begins for both teams. The Packers are in survival mode for the first month of the season, missing DE Micah Parsons, and now likely playing without RB Josh Jacobs for the immediate future. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s offense gets a shot in the arm with Kyler Murray at QB. Being at home is a big plus. A loss, and one of these teams will be behind the 8-ball right off the bat.

Smooth’s Pick: Minnesota (22-18)

Washington at Philadelphia
Line: Eagles by 4½

I didn’t put Dan Quinn on the list of “coaches on the hot seat”. But maybe I should have. A slow start and he could possibly go. But I think a bounce back year is in order for the Commanders. They’ll have a tough task for their opener having to go to Philly. The Eagles look solid and it should be no surprise they’re the favorites to take the East. In this game, though I like Washington to at least give them some trouble.

Smooth’s Pick: Philadelphia (25-19)

Arizona at LA Chargers
Line: Bolts by 10½

This is the beginning of what could be a long season for long-suffering Cardinals fans. They’re already double-digit underdogs on the road against the Bolts. It’s unknown what to expect, but with the QB situation the way it is, look for lots of the run game all year long. Look for the Bolts to explode on the vulnerable secondary of the Cards.

Smooth’s Pick: LA Chargers (38-16)

Dallas at NY Giants
Line: Cowboys by 3½

This is the fourth time in five years these two teams have met for the season opener on either Sunday night or Monday night football. The Cowboys won all of their matchups against the G-Men, but this year is different. With John Harbaugh running the show, and some talented players on both sides of the ball, a win by Dallas is not guaranteed. Going on a limb, here.

Smooth’s Pick: NY Giants (27-24)

Monday, September 14

Denver at Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 2½

The big question for the final game of week one will be, what version of Patrick Mahomes will show up on Monday night. Will his past injury slow his mobility? Or will he be back to his old self again? Same question could be for Bo Nix. Will his production go down because of his injury. All these questions will be answered. Despite the changes on the field for the Chiefs, they’re still very much favored and with good reason.

Smooth’s Pick: Kansas City (24-19)

And that’s Smooth’s NFL Football Picks for week 1. Join me for week two on September 17 and we’ll find out how I did to start the season.

We’ll see you later!