Smooth’s NFL Football Picks 2026 – Week 2 (Put It In The Books!)

The NFL is in full swing with the completion of the first week of 2026 season. A few upsets, took place. Let’s take a look at how we did.

Last Week’s Results

Head-to-Head: 13-3
Against the Spread: 10-3-3

Now, here’s our picks for week 2.

Thursday, September 17

Detroit at Buffalo
Line: Bills by 3½

The Lions were our guaranteed lock to win against New Orleans. But they damn sure almost blew it in overtime. After a TD pass, the Detroit defense came up big, breaking up a two-point conversion, and sealing a 31-30 win over the Saints. They head to Western New York, where the Bills will formerly christen their brand-new Highmark Stadium into action on Thursday night. Last Sunday in Houston, the Buffalo defense came up big despite giving up a lot a points, and Josh Allen drove the offense 96 yards in just over 90 seconds for the score, escaping with a 36-31 win. Giving up that many points to a lesser team like New Orleans should be a big concern, especially having to go against a high-powered offense like the Bills. They need to tighten up their run defense if they have any chance to win. Buffalo also needs to shore up their defense, as well. They gave up a ton of yards to Houston on the road. On a short week, I like the Bills to keep their luck going and take out the visiting Lions.

Smooth’s Pick: Buffalo (26-21)

Sunday, September 20

Carolina at Atlanta
Line: Falcons by 1½

The Panthers defense folded like a deck of cards, giving up 552 total yards to Chicago. They were pummeled, 59-37 at home. Despite the loss Bryce Young did throw for 331 yards passing and three TDs. They head to the ATL where the Falcons were forced to call 3rd string QB Cooper Rush into action after starter Tua Tagovailoa was injured, and backup Michael Penix, Jr. was inactive. He threw for two INTs in the 20-13 loss to Pittsburgh. Bijan Robinson with a TD and 173 total yards in the loss. In this early NFC South matchup, both teams can’t afford to lose ground, when the division title may depend on the better record. I can’t see the Panthers giving up that many points for the second week in a row, especially with the offense problems the dirty birds are having. My feeing is this will be a low scoring affair, with the home team sneaking out with a win.

Smooth’s Pick: Atlanta (17-14)

Minnesota at Chicago
Line: Bears by 5½

Kyler Murray was knocked out of the game against Green Bay, giving Carson Wentz another chance to prove his worth in the NFL. After being down by 12 in the 3rd quarter he would throw two of his three TD passes to seal the win over Green Bay, 39-22 was the final. The Vikings head to the windy city to take on the Bears, who piled on 59 points on Carolina. That’s the first time they scored over 50 points since 2012. Much of that firepower was on the ground with D’Andre Swift getting 124 yards rushing and 3 TD’s, Kyle Monongai with a 61-yard TD run putting him over the century mark in rushing for the day. Caleb Willams also with 4 TDs (2 passing, 2 rushing). The Bears offense will be tested against a much better defense in the Vikings. The only issue will be whether Wentz will be able to gather the same effort on the road this Sunday. In this divisional matchup, anything’s possible.

Smooth’s Pick: Chicago (21-17)

Philadelphia at Tennessee
Line: Eagles by 6½

Philly got off to an early lead on Washington with a couple of Jalen Hurts TD passes to Dallas Goedert and Dontaviyon Wicks. But in the 2nd half, the offense sputtered. They finally came alive late 4th quarter when Hurts found Goedert in the end zone for the 2nd time in the game. The defense prevented a two-point conversion, and that sealed a 24-22 win over the Commanders. The Eagles head to Nashville, where Robert Saleh’s debut at Titans head coach was a downer. Cam Ward struggled against the Jets defense, getting sacked three times in the 23-10 loss. Rumblings are beginning to show about Ward’s ability to lead this team after the poor showing last Sunday. It doesn’t get any easier with a tough defense from Philly coming to town. Their only hope is if the Eagles offense will slow down like they did in the 2nd half of their game against Washington. Can’t see that happening, though.

Smooth’s Pick: Philadelphia (27-13)

Pittsburgh at New England
Line: Patriots by 5½

TJ Watt became only the second player in NFL history to record at least 10 interceptions and at least 100 sacks in his career. He joins Hall-of-Famer Julius Peppers in that category. The one INT he had last Sunday was returned for a pick-six in the Steelers win over Atlanta. Aaron Rodgers with a TD on 221 yards passing in the victory, the first for Mike McCarthy as Pittsburgh head coach. The Steelers head to Foxborough, where the Patriots held off Seattle’s offense for much of the game. But it was three INTs by Drake Maye including one in the end zone with time running down in the 4th quarter that made the difference, 13-10 Seahawks was the final. They also get bad news, as newly acquired WR AJ Brown suffered a high ankle sprain in the loss. He’ll be out for at least four weeks, which could mean trouble for their pass offense. They’ll have to depend more on the run game, but against a Steelers defense that had been stingy last Sunday, points could be hard to come by. Either way, I like the Patriots, but not the points.

Smooth’s Pick: New England (22-20)

Green Bay at NY Jets
Line: Packers by 3½

Jordan Love found Christian Watson in the end zone twice in their game against Minnesota. They had a 22-10 lead in the 3rd quarter, but the defense couldn’t stop the Vikings and their offense. They also had a few miscues, including a turnover deep in their own territory. The Pack heads to the Meadowlands, where Jets head coach Aaron Glenn gets a much-needed win over Tennessee to get the season started. Gang Green scored on its very first drive of the game, as they picked up 367 total yards in the victory, which is a very positive start of the year. The pressure is all on the Pack after that opening season loss. Another loss could put them in trouble at 0-2. Unless their offense can regroup against a similar defensive scheme, it could be a long day for them. I still see the Pack bouncing back from that loss, but it won’t be easy.

Smooth’s Pick: Green Bay (19-16)

Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Line: Bucs by 9½

Dashaun Watson’s INT on the first drive of the game set the tone all day long. He was also sacked five times and gave up a fumble, as the Browns were pummeled by Jacksonville, 34-10. They head to Tampa to take on the Bucs, where rookie Josiah Trotter, the son of former Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Jeremiah Trotter had a big day in his NFL debut. He had a sack and pick-6, but unfortunately, the Bucs got outplayed by Cincinnati offensively, 33-27 was the final. Baker Mayfield was sacked 4 times in the loss. Luck for them, the Browns head to town with a lot of issues, on both sides of the field. If Mayfield can find time with his receivers, it should be a productive day.

This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick: Tampa Bay (31-14)

New Orleans at Baltimore
Line: Ravens by 9½

Tyler Shough had a big 2nd half for New Orleans against Detroit. He led a 21-point comeback and ended the game with 410 yards passing, and 3 TDs. But it was a 2-point attempt that failed on the final play in OT that made the difference in the loss. They head to the Baltimore, where Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry left off where they started with big numbers in the 41-23 win over Indianapolis. Jackson with 324 yards, a passing and a rushing score, Henry with 144 yards rushing and 3 TDs in the win. This is gonna be another big challenge for a young team like the Saints, but with a team as experienced like the Ravens, a comeback could be next to impossible. Look for the duo of Jackson and Henry for another big set of numbers.

Smooth’s Pick: Baltimore (37-20)

Cincinnati at Houston
Line: Texans by 2½

Joe Burrow with 254 yards passing and a TD, and the Bengals defense recovered three straight fumbles against Tampa Bay in the win. They head to Houston, where newly acquired RB David Montgomery scored three TDs against Buffalo, and held Josh Allen in check for most of the game. But the defense could not hold late, as they drop their home opener to the Bills. The Bengals defense will be tested with a highly mobile QB like CJ Stroud, and Burrow will be under the gun with the Texans defense. In the end, I like the home team to eek out a win courtesy of special teams.

Smooth’s Pick: Houston (20-17)

Jacksonville at Denver
Line: Broncos by 2½

Trevor Lawrence starts the season with 4 TD passes, and Josh Hines-Allen & Travon Walker each shared a sack in the Jags dominating win over Cleveland. Jacksonville heads to the mile high city to take on the Broncos, who started their season with a dud against AFC West rival, Kansas City on Monday night. All kinds of issues with turnovers and stopping the run. They lose it, 31-10. Not the way to start the season if you want to improve on that runner-up status in the AFC Championship game. The Jags won’t be a pushover with their defense, either. However, I think the Broncos can recover and play much better football. It will be hard fought, though.

Smooth’s Pick: Denver (23-21)

Las Vegas at LA Chargers
Line: Bolts by 6½

Kurt Cousins overcame two INTs to throw 3 TDs, Ashton Jeanty rushed for over 100 yards, he had 147 total and two receiving TDs, as the Raiders beat Miami, 27-13. DE Kwity Pane with 2 of the Silver and Black’s five sacks on the day. They head to So-Fi Stadium to take on the Bolts, who were stunned by Arizona. They fell behind early, and didn’t recover. 26-14, Cardinals with the upset victory. The Bolts’ run game was non-existent, only 81 yards rushing on the day, and they were caught off guard by a Cardinals team who played inspired football. Las Vegas is also an upstart team with nothing to lose. However, I think Jim Harbaugh will regroup and get his team ready for Sunday.

Smooth’s Pick: LA Chargers (26-14)

Washington at Dallas
Line: Cowboys by 3½

It was a slow start for Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. They didn’t get busy until the 2nd quarter with a Jackory Croskey-Merritt 1-yard TD run, but the extra point would be blocked. An unsportsmanlike penalty on Debow Samuel’s first TD for Washington prevented a 2-point attempt. The Commanders got close late with a TD pass to Antonio Williams, but a two-point attempt would fail, leading to a Washington loss. They head to the Metroplex to take on the Cowboys, who have a major problem on defense. Last year, they gave up a ton of yards and points to the opposition. They tried to fix that, bringing only 3 starters back from last year. But the result was the same issues, 166 yards given up on the ground. They lose to the Giants, 28-20. We’ll tell you how the G-Men pulled off the upset later in the broadcast. The Commanders nearly pulled off the upset against the Eagles by playing stingy on 3rd downs. Look for the same effort against the Cowboys this Sunday. However, Dax Prescott and company still has a strong enough offense to pull through. Now if only their patchwork defense can come together.

Smooth’s Pick: Dallas (24-21)

Seattle at Arizona
Line: Seahawks by 4½

Getting back to the week one season opener between the Seahawks and the Patriots. Sam Darnold was hurt on the fifth play of the game. He was replaced by backup Drew Lock. He hooked up with Jaxson Smith-Njigba for a 45-yard TD pass in the 4th quarter, and the defense set the tone the rest of the way with three INT’s including one on the Patriots final drive with time running down to seal the win. They head to the desert to face rival, Arizona. Last Sunday, Trey McBride with 9 catches and a TD reception, Jeremiyah Love with his first NFL TD in the Cardinals’ upset victory over the Chargers. Mike LeFleur used his skills as the Rams defensive coordinator to give his team the necessary tools win his first NFL game as Cardinals head coach. He’ll need to somehow get his offense to respond against one of the toughest defenses in the league. They got a break with Darnold being out at QB for this game. They’ll need to keep the score low for any chance to win. However, I like the defending Super Bowl champs to steal the win.

Smooth’s Pick: Seattle (19-14)

Miami at San Francisco
Line: 49ers by 13½

Tough day for new Dolphins starting QB Malik Willis, as he was sacked five times. He also threw an INT in the loss against Las Vegas. The Fish head west to Santa Clara, California to take on the 49ers, who took a full week in Australia to get accustomed to their surroundings. It was the right decision, as they dominated their NFC West rivals. Brock Purdy with 3 TD passes as San Fran beats the Rams, 27-7. A solid start for a team that was riddled with injuries last season. They’re coming home to face a Miami team that is struggling to find it’s footing with new coaching and a new QB. The Fish’s only chance at an improbable upset is to utilize their only real weapon. DeVon Achane at RB. Keep the score low and hope for the best on defense. Unfortunately, there’s a reason that point spread is so high.

Smooth’s Pick: San Francisco (38-17)

Indianapolis at Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 7

Jonathan Taylor with two rushing TDs and 121 total yards in the losing effort by the Colts against Baltimore. Daniel Jones with a TD pass and an INT. He was also sacked twice. Indy heads to KC, where free agent acquisition Keneth Walker III had a big night against Denver on Monday night, 173 rushing yards with a TD in the Chiefs victory. Patrick Mahomes with 184 yards and two TDs in his return from injury. It’s safe to say that the Chiefs are back, especially with the way they handled their division rivals. The Colts have some work to do on Sunday night, and I don’t think they’re going to be very successful at it.

Smooth’s Pick: Kansas City (30-14)

Monday, September 21

NY Giants at LA Rams
Line: Rams by 7½

Head coach John Harbaugh made some big changes in the Giants preparation for game day, and on Sunday night, they looked focused and ready to go. The G-Men took control of the game from the opening kickoff to the final whistle. Jaxson Dart with 3 TD passes, two of those to TE Isaiah Likely, which was a career high for him. Cam Skattebo was a bull in the run game, picking up 4.5 yards per carry and a TD in the win over Dallas. Big Blue heads to LA to take on the Rams on Monday night. The Rams decided to take a flight to Melbourne, Australia the day before the game and arrive for kickoff on pacific coast time, similar to what they did with their other overseas game. I think the 18 hours may have been too much, as LA came out flat on both sides of the ball against the 49ers. They were without Aaron Donald, who missed the flight for health reasons, and now they’ll be without Myles Garrett, who will have to have surgery on his knee. He suffered the injury in the game last Thursday. With their two big defensive weapons out, this is a chance for the G-Men to take an even bigger plunge. The Giants don’t play very well on Monday night, but that could change. We’ll see if last Sunday’s win was for real. I say, they are!

This is my upset special!
Smooth’s Pick: NY Giants (27-23)

And that’s Smooth’s NFL Football Picks for week 2. We’ll see you later!

Smooth’s NFL Football Picks 2026 – Week 1 (Let’s Get This Party Started!)

It’s finally here! I’ve been waiting 7 months for kickoff to happen. This week, the NFL goes to the land down under for the first time in history. Let’s get this party started.

Wednesday, September 9

New England at Seattle
Line: Seahawks by 5½

Seven months ago, the Seahawks won their second Vince Lombardi trophy at the expense of the New England Patriots, and on this night, they get to raise the championship banner. All of it takes place with the team they beat looking on. This rematch won’t necessarily be close, with Seattle handling one of the best defensive units in the NFL. Last year, Seattle’s defense ranked first in preventing teams from getting into the endzone. They were also third in rushing defense, and was top 10 in total defense. It’s truly a nightmare draw to open the season for New England. Sam Darnold and JSN will do enough on the other side of the ball to cover the spread. Don’t overthink this one.

Smooth’s Pick: Seattle (28-17)

Thursday, September 10

San Francisco vs. LA Rams
From Melbourne, Australia
Line: Rams by 3½

This will be the NFL’s maiden voyage to the home of Crocodile Dundee and Mad Max. The game will be played on a 100,000-seat stadium known for playing cricket. The facility was built way back in 1853, and has hosted the 1956 Summer Olympics. Australian Rules Football is also six teams that call the stadium home, and it’s also the home of the AFL Grand Final. As for the game itself, the Rams will have Aaron Donald back and will pair him with new acquisition Myles Garrett. That gives LA a distinct advantage on the defensive front. As for San Francisco, Brock Purdy returns with a different set of receivers. Injuries decimated their season last year. I expect a very close game, especially on a neutral site.

Smooth’s Pick: LA Rams (20-16)

Sunday, September 13

Tampa Bay at Cincinnati
Line: Bengals by 3½

Vegas is expecting big numbers from Joe Burrow this weekend, upwards to 300 yards against the Bucs defense. However, I’m curious on how Baker Mayfield does against that newfangled Bengals defense. Something tells me he may have some trouble against them.

Smooth’s Pick: Cincinnati (26-17)

New Orleans at Detroit
Line: Lions by 7½

The Saints didn’t have a great pre-season, having been shut out of one game 35-0. Let’s hope that wasn’t a sign of things to come for them. They’ll have to travel to the motor city against a tough Lions team. Unless the Saints come out of the gate quick, they’re not gonna last in this game. Either way, I like the Lions to win their opener at home.

This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick: Detroit (30-19)

NY Jets at Tennessee
Line: Titans by 2½

This is also a must game for Jets head coach Aaron Glenn. Sorry to say that with the first game of the season. But Gang Green needs to come out smoking. They’ll have to do that against what could be a much-improved Titans squad with Robert Saleh coaching with a chip on his shoulder. You can bet he wants this game badly. I say, he gets it.

Smooth’s Pick: Tennessee (20-12)

Baltimore at Indianapolis
Line: Ravens by 3½

Looking forward to seeing how Lamar Jackson will shape up with a new head coach and a few new receivers to throw to. The question will be how much in the tank does Derrick Henry have? Meanwhile, Daniel Jones returns and I’m curious on if his history of injury problems will hamper his production. This will be a tough matchup on both sides, But I think Jackson will sneak out with a win.

This is my upset special!
Smooth’s Pick: Baltimore (24-21)

Atlanta at Pittsburgh
Line: Steelers by 2½

New head coaches on both sides of the gridiron. Kevin Stefanski with the dirty birds, Mike McCarthy in the steel city. As of this recording, Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa are still duking it our for the starting QB position. Whoever wins, will have a tough go against Pittsburgh. Aaron Rodgers will look to re-kindle the magic with McCarthy that gave them a Super Bowl title in Green Bay. As for this game, I like the Steelers to take it, but it will be tough going.

Smooth’s Pick: Pittsburgh (23-19)

Chicago at Carolina
Line: Bears by 2½

The Bears look for an NFC North title for the second straight year in a row. Caleb Williams will have different receivers to target, and their defense has improved. They’ll get a test on the road against last year’s surprise team, the Panthers. Unfortunately, everyone won’t be surprised this time around. It will still be tough for the Bears to gather a victory.

Smooth’s Pick: Chicago (20-17)

Cleveland at Jacksonville
Line: Jags by 7½

Deshaun Watson was named the starting quarterback for week 1, and the only reason I could think of is that the Browns invested so much money in him that it would be a waste to have him on the bench. We’ll see if the two years away is a plus, or a minus. Meanwhile, the Jags look for their second straight division title. I like Trevor Lawrence to light up the scoreboard this weekend against a defense that has lost its best player.

Smooth’s Pick: Jacksonville (33-13)

Buffalo at Houston
Line: Bills by 1½

The Bills start with a new head coach and hope to get on the right footing. However, they have a tough game against the Texans in Houston. The last time these two teams faced each other, the Bills got smoked. However, I don’t think the Texans will have it easier this time around.

Smooth’s Pick: Buffalo (26-21)

Miami at Las Vegas
Line: Raiders by 3½

The Fish could be swimming in bitter waters this season. Malik Willis gets his chance to shine as the starting QB. However, he won’t have as many high-flying targets as before. Meanwhile, as expected, Kirk Cousins was named the Raiders starting QB. It’s almost certain that rookie Fernando Mendoza’s NFL debut will take place sometime this season. If the Silver and Black get blown out at home, that will definitely be the case. But I don’t see that happening.

Smooth’s Pick: Las Vegas (17-10)

Green Bay at Minnesota
Line: Packers by 1½

Rival week begins for both teams. The Packers are in survival mode for the first month of the season, missing DE Micah Parsons, and now likely playing without RB Josh Jacobs for the immediate future. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s offense gets a shot in the arm with Kyler Murray at QB. Being at home is a big plus. A loss, and one of these teams will be behind the 8-ball right off the bat.

Smooth’s Pick: Minnesota (22-18)

Washington at Philadelphia
Line: Eagles by 4½

I didn’t put Dan Quinn on the list of “coaches on the hot seat”. But maybe I should have. A slow start and he could possibly go. But I think a bounce back year is in order for the Commanders. They’ll have a tough task for their opener having to go to Philly. The Eagles look solid and it should be no surprise they’re the favorites to take the East. In this game, though I like Washington to at least give them some trouble.

Smooth’s Pick: Philadelphia (25-19)

Arizona at LA Chargers
Line: Bolts by 10½

This is the beginning of what could be a long season for long-suffering Cardinals fans. They’re already double-digit underdogs on the road against the Bolts. It’s unknown what to expect, but with the QB situation the way it is, look for lots of the run game all year long. Look for the Bolts to explode on the vulnerable secondary of the Cards.

Smooth’s Pick: LA Chargers (38-16)

Dallas at NY Giants
Line: Cowboys by 3½

This is the fourth time in five years these two teams have met for the season opener on either Sunday night or Monday night football. The Cowboys won all of their matchups against the G-Men, but this year is different. With John Harbaugh running the show, and some talented players on both sides of the ball, a win by Dallas is not guaranteed. Going on a limb, here.

Smooth’s Pick: NY Giants (27-24)

Monday, September 14

Denver at Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 2½

The big question for the final game of week one will be, what version of Patrick Mahomes will show up on Monday night. Will his past injury slow his mobility? Or will he be back to his old self again? Same question could be for Bo Nix. Will his production go down because of his injury. All these questions will be answered. Despite the changes on the field for the Chiefs, they’re still very much favored and with good reason.

Smooth’s Pick: Kansas City (24-19)

And that’s Smooth’s NFL Football Picks for week 1. Join me for week two on September 17 and we’ll find out how I did to start the season.

We’ll see you later!

Smooth’s NFL Football Picks EXTRA POINT: NY Giants Pre-season Outlook

Last season was a total disaster for the New York Football Giants. Another slow start with a tough schedule, and Brian Daboll was fired as head coach mid-season, something rarely done by Giants management. It didn’t get any better with his replacement, offensive coordinator Mike Kafka. He also had to deal with an injury plagued lineup. The team ended with a 3-14 record, and it was back to square one.

Finding a head coach was easy this time around, thanks to the Baltimore Ravens. They fired their long-time head coach John Harbaugh, who had another underachieving season with the club, and were knocked out of the playoffs on a last second missed field goal during the final game of the year. It didn’t take time for Harbaugh to find a new home, as co-owner John Mara was instrumental on grabbing him as quickly as possible.

The Harbaugh era begins for Big Blue with much anticipation, and for long-time fans like myself, it’s a welcome change. In the 100-year history, the G-Men have never hired a head coach that had previously won a Super Bowl or an NFL Championship. And so far, it looks like everyone on the team has hopped on to the new focus. Those players who weren’t on board, were jettisoned to other teams via trade, free agency or outright waivers.

Gone were DT Dexter Lawrence, who got tired of losing. It also didn’t help that his production on the field went south. He was traded to Cincinnati for a 1st round draft pick. LB Bobby Okeroke was a casualty of the salary cap. Also leaving via free agency were WR Wan’Dale Robinson and CB Cordale Flott. Both players joined former coach Daboll in Tennessee.

But there were significant adds, courtesy of coach Harbaugh. Four players followed him from Baltimore to the Giants, including TE Isaiah Likely, who is expected to make a big contribution to the offense. LB Tremaine Edmunds signed a three-year deal to anchor the defense, and WR Odell Beckham Jr. (shown above) returns to the team that made him a legend. Though he 10 years older, he still has something left in the tank, but he still has to make squad on a top-heavy receiver corp.

In late August, the G-Men signed RB Najee Harris to a one-year deal. He’s coming off a season ending Achillies injury for the Chargers. He gained over 1,000 yards in four seasons with Pittsburgh, and will fit in nicely with a stacked running back corp.

Big Blue had seven draft picks this season, and addressed needs on the O-line and at linebacker. Ohio State’s Arvell Reese (shown above) was selected 5th overall. He’s expected to make an immediate impact, and Miami’s Francis Mauigoa was selected 10th overall as part of the Dexter Lawrence trade. He comes in heavily touted and is expected to boost a much-needed O-line.

There are still a few questions marks, most notably the health’s of some key players. WR Malik Nabers is coming off a season ending torn ACL, and has been rehabbing in anticipation of a week 1 return. Just what kind of player will he be coming back. Cam Scattebo is also coming off a season ending foot injury along with LB Micah McFadden. As for QB Jaxson Dart (shown above), he received another concussion during the first pre-season game against Minnesota. He’s gone to the medical tent a number of times last season, we have to wonder if his style of play has to be adjusted?

Looking at the schedule, the G-Men have the 17th toughest schedule in the NFL. Four of their first six games are at home, with only the Rams and Texans coming off winning records in 2025. They face the NFC West and AFC South, plus single matches against the Browns, Saints, and Lions along with the standard NFC East home and home series.

They begin at home against the Cowboys on Sunday night, then in LA to take on the Rams. They’re back at home for two weeks against Tennessee and Arizona. Then in DC to take on Washington, and at home against New Orleans. Then it a matchup against Houston before they get a bye during week 7. 3-4 is wishful thinking, and it they can get an upset against one of the two, they could be in good shape.

After the bye, they get two games against NFC East opponent, in Phlly during week 9 and at home against Washington in week 10 on Thursday night. Jacksonville comes to town during week 11, then they take on Daniel Jones for the first time since releasing him two years ago in Indianapolis in week 12. The next two weeks will be tough, with games against San Francisco at home, and on the road against defending Super Bowl champion Seattle.

The rest of the season has Big Blue taking on Cleveland at home, then on the road twice against Detroit on Monday night, then Dallas, and then close out the season at home against Philadelphia.

I’m thinking 8-9 for a final regular season record could be a possibility. But there are so many factors taking place. The most important one is, how will this team respond to Harbaugh’s system? If the team gets off to a quick start, then we’ll have confidence come playoff time. I’m not expecting a quick fix, but I just want a competitive team that won’t embarrass us all season.

Let’s hit the ground running, and get this season started already!

Smooth’s NFL Football Pre-season Picks – 2026

After 6 long months of waiting, the 2026 NFL season has finally arrived. 32 teams have Super Bowl dreams in their heads, but only one will be able to hoist the Vince Lombardi trophy in February. Let’s take a look at our pre-season picks starting with the AFC.

AFC East – The New England Patriots surprised a lot of critics with a young team led by Mike Vrabel in his first season as head coach. With his track record as a three-time Super Bowl champ as a player, he motivated his team to almost winning another ring. But Seattle had other ideas. They’ll be hard pressed to repeat the task with virtually the same group, especially with a division that has made a number of personnel moves.

After a third straight year of being bounced out of the playoffs, the Buffalo Bills fired head coach Sean McDermott. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady takes over at the helm and looks to get Josh Allen and company more scoring power. They have most of their best players back, so they should be able to contend with New England for the top spot in the division.

The Miami Dolphins are also starting off fresh with a new head coach and a new QB. Jeff Hafley takes over for Mike McDaniel as head coach, and Malik Willis signed a three-year deal to become their starter at QB. The problem for the Fish is trying to come together on both sides of the ball. They lost a lot of key players, and it could be tough waters to swim through.

As for the Jets, head coach Aaron Glenn got the benefit of the doubt from team owner Woody Johnson after a rough first year as head coach. They bring back Geno Smith as their starting QB. They drafted him in the 2nd round back in 2013, and he struggled in his first go-round with the club, going 12-18. Gang Green is hoping to get the player that had success in Seattle to lead the way.

Sometimes it takes a change in leadership to get a team over the hump, and in the Bills case, a new coach and a new stadium, may be just what the doctor ordered.

Smooth’s Pick: Buffalo (12-5)

AFC North – The Pittsburgh Steelers begin the 2026 season by hiring only the four head coach in 56 years. Mike McCarthy re-teams with Aaron Rodgers, who won a Super Bowl with Green Bay back in 2008. But this Steelers team needs a lot of adjustments to get back to the playoffs.

The Baltimore Ravens also begin the season with a new head coach. Jesse Minter comes over from the Chargers to succeed longtime head coach John Harbaugh. He will have Lamar Jackson, who hopes to have an injury-free season.

The Cincinnati Bengals are also looking to a bounce-back season from their QB Joe Burrow. The last few years have been injury plagued. They did make a big splash at defensive tackle picking up Dexter Lawrence from the Giants, and that should shore up their front line to stop the run.

As for the Cleveland Browns, Todd Monken takes over as head coach, and he has a lot of work ahead of him. Most notably, who will be the starting QB. He has Shedeur Sanders who came on strong at the end of 2025, or he can go to veteran Dashaun Watson, who hasn’t played since 2024.

All four teams have a chance to win the division, but with the moves they made on defense, and a fully healthy QB, the Bengals could be looking at a bounce-back year.

Smooth’s Pick: Cincinnati (12-5)

AFC South – Liam Coen led the team to a 13–4 record and the AFC South division title in his 1st year as head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars. He will be hard pressed to equal the feat, or even improve the team’s stature this season. But with Trevor Lawrence and virtually the same lineup in place, the Jags are certain to be the favorites in 2026. However, the division has improved drastically, with each team making important moves in order to take the top spot.

The Tennessee Titans made a lot of moves that signaled they could be back to being competitive. Robert Saleh gets another shot at head coach and brings in former Giants skipper Brian Daboll to run the offense. They also signed WR Wan’Dale Robinson and DB Cordale Flott from the G-Men off of free agency.

The Houston Texans are coming off an injury-plagued season, as CJ Stroud had to miss three games due to a concussion. Despite missed time, the Texans still made the playoffs as a wild card and knocked off Pittsburgh in the wildcard before losing to New England in the divisional. This is an important year for Stroud, as the Texans need to get over the hump.

The Indianapolis Colts secured Daniel Jones as their starter at QB. He started the 2025 season strong, and it was looking like the Colts were going to breeze into the playoffs, but an injury to DJ and a poor showing down the stretch ended their playoff hopes. A health “Danny Dimes” is gonna be important for the Colts to contend.

The AFC South is another competitive division that could come down to the final few weeks of the season. I like the defense of the Texans to hold off the Jags to take the title.

Smooth’s Pick: Houston (10-7)

AFC West – Denver was poised to head to Super Bowl 60, but a broken ankle by QB Bo Nix during the Divisional playoff ended those hopes. A full recovery gives the Broncos a chance to get to the next level. Now that their free of that bad Russell Wilson contract, they pulled off a massive block-buster trade with Miami, acquiring star WR Jaylen Waddle. This will give the Broncos an even bigger presence in passing, and makes them the favorites to repeat as division champs.

However, the Chargers will still have something to say about that. They had a number of injuries to their offensive line, which prevented the team from improving. That was a top priority for head coach Jim Harbaugh. They aggressively overhauled the interior line and brought in a completely new stable of tight ends to anchor their physical, run-first scheme.

Losing Patrick Mahomes for the season due to a ruptured Achillies led to Kansas City having their worst finish since Andy Reid became head coach in 2011. That also led to a major reshuffling of their roster. They traded away All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie and completely overhauled the backfield by signing elite running back Kenneth Walker III. Mahomes will be hopefully be back by week 1, as well as TE Travis Kelce, but for how long and how effective will they be?

As for the Las Vegas Raiders, they’re back to square one with a new head coach, and a new hope for the future with No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza. Klint Kubiak will bring him along slowly, with Kirk Cousins starting at QB. The Silver and Black also went with defense with their other draft picks. DE Keyron Crawford and DB Jermod McCoy are expected to contribute. But overall, it’s gonna take a few years to get to respectability.

Injuries were a major part of the division’s storyline last season, and it’s expected to be a three-team race. Whoever has the least number of injuries will take the top spot. I like KC to make a return to the playoffs, but not as a division title holder.

Smooth’s Pick: Denver (11-6)

AFC Playoff Predictions

#1 Buffalo
#2 Cincinnati
#3 Denver
#4 Houston
Wildcard Teams: #5 New England, #6 Jacksonville, #7 Kansas City

Wildcard Weekend

Kansas City over Cincinnati
Denver over Jacksonville
Houston over New England

Divisional Round

Buffalo over Kansas City
Denver over Houston

AFC Championship

Buffalo over Denver

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NFC East – The Philadelphia Eagles are looking at returning to the Super Bowl after falling off the wagon in 2025. They made some changes, including the loss of WR AJ Brown via trade. Hollywood Brown will take over his key receiving slot. But the Eagles still have the right pieces in place with Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and a solid defense, and that should keep them in the top 5 spot in the Power Rankings. The rest of the division isn’t as stable.

The Dallas Cowboys are right on their heels despite missing the playoffs last season. They made some big deals in the off season, acquiring LB/DE Rashan Gary from Green Bay, signing veteran pass rusher Von Miller. They also secured WR George Pickens to a long-term deal. The big question mark now will be how many good years will they have with Dax Prescott under center?

Washington Commanders took a step back after a surprise appearance in NFC Championship game two seasons ago. Injuries played a big part in their downturn. Head coach Dan Quinn responded by making a complete overhaul of the roster, including signing Stefan Diggs to give young QB Jayden Daniels a highly revamped supporting cast.

As for the Giants, they’re starting off fresh with new management. New head coach John Harbaugh comes in to try to get the G-Men back to their winning ways. We’ll have more about their chances on a special edition of the NY Giants Pre-Season Outlook coming soon.

As I said before, this is a two-team race, between the Eagles and the Cowboys. With experience on their side, I think the Eagles will still come out on top.

Smooth’s Pick: Philadelphia (12-5)

NFC North – Once again, this division looks like a log jam between three of the four teams. Following an 11-6 campaign in 2025 under head coach Ben Johnson, the Chicago Bears navigated an active 2026 offseason defined by high-profile roster attrition, most notably trading away star wide receiver DJ Moore, and executing a series of calculated defensive line and secondary reinforcements. Despite the moves, they’re still the top NFC North contenders.

The Green Bay Packers, also had to make some radical decisions, as the team had a number of free agents at the end of last season. They let Rashan Gary walk, while using their cap flexibility to inject proven veteran talent into the defensive trenches and secondary. The moves still put them in contention with Chicago. However, the challenge will all depend on the health of QB Jordan Love.

Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions were left with question marks after another disappointing finish last season. The front office shook up the offense by orchestrating a player-for-player trade involving running back David Montgomery, while heavily focusing their salary cap assets on rebuilding the interior offensive line and defensive secondary. This will be an important season for head coach Dan Campbell, who up to this point hasn’t lived up to his Super Bowl expectations.

As for the Minnesota Vikings, they can only wonder if they made the right decision not signing Sam Darnold two years ago. JJ McCarthy was a disaster as his replacement at QB, and they were forced to sign free agent Kyler Murray to a one-year deal, and he looks like the starting QB during week 1. Jauan Jennings comes over from San Francisco to assist Justin Jefferson at WR.

Divisional matchups will be the key to taking the title. I think the Bears can still pull it off, but they’ll have one less win to make it happen.

Smooth’s Pick: Chicago (10-7)

NFC South – This is one of the weakest divisions in the NFL, and like last season a team with a below .500 could well win the division. Carolina pretty much won the NFC South thru attrition. Bryce Young finally blossomed into the #1 overall pick he was supposed to be. They did fall to the Rams in the Wildcard round, and looking ahead, they have a good chance to repeat. General manager Dan Morgan completely overhauled the defense via elite free-agent signings while reshuffling the quarterback room and offensive line depth.

Tampa Bay navigated a massive transition period defined by the heartbreaking departure of a franchise icon. Mike Evans, who set a franchise record for consecutive 1,000 yards receiving sign with San Francisco in the off season. Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin will split the passes thrown from Baker Mayfield. Head coach Todd Bowles heavily prioritized seasoned veteran physical playmakers to revamp their defensive depth chart.

Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank was not pleased with Raheem Morris’ work as head coach and dismissed him after the season concluded. Kevin Stefanski gets another shot at head coaching after a disastrous tenure in Cleveland. He’ll have a choice between Michael Penix Jr. and free agent signee Tua Tagovailoa at QB. Bijian Robinson signs a big extension, along with WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts.

As for the New Orleans Saints, they saw a little bit of life from QB Tyler Shough after he went 5-4 late in the season. However, the team faced severe financial constraints, and the front-office was forced to execute heavy roster cuts and rely almost entirely on budget-friendly, one-year deals and internal promotions to field a competitive depth chart. Despite the shortcomings, they could very well be a team that could surprise a lot of people.

For all four teams, they’ll likely be underdogs in most of their matchups outside the division. So, one team is going to have to take advantage and control the NFC South. Having said that, I like the Bucs to capture the title.

Smooth’s Pick: Tampa Bay (9-8)

NFC West -The Seattle Seahawks stunned NFL critics by putting together a strong defense and an offense that executed with the right personnel. Sam Darnold was the right QB at the right time, throwing career highs in passing yards and TDs. WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba also had a career year in receiving yards on their way to a Super Bowl championship. But a repeat isn’t certain, as they lose RB Kenneth Walker III to free agency.

The Rams made a huge splash in the off-season acquiring edge rusher Myles Garrett from Cleveland. They also picked up defensive backs Trent McDuffee and Jaylen Watson from the Kansas City Chiefs. Matthew Stafford also signed a one-year deal in what will likely be his final season in the NFL. They’ll be a strong contender to knock off the Super Bowl champs.

The San Francisco 49ers are coming off their worst season under head coach Kyle Shanahan. The good news is they didn’t have many players leaving as free agents. But they did bolster their receiving corps with the signing of WR Mike Evans. With Trent Williams and Dre Greenlaw secured with extensions, they were able to trade draft capital to fortify their interior defensive front. They look to return to the playoffs.

As for the Arizona Cardinals, they have a new coach with Mike Lefleur taking over. The Kyler Murray era is over, and with that, lots of uncertainty at QB. Jacoby Brissett will be the starter, with rookie Carson Beck as his 3rd string heir apparent. That means leaning more on the run game. They drafted Jeremiah Love as the 4th overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft. They also signed Tyler Allgeiger as a free agent. John Conner is coming off injury from last season, but if he’s anywhere near 100% percent his presence will be a positive. As for their defense, that’s another story.

Three of the four teams in this division have a chance for the post season, and they’re also Super Bowl contenders. However, there’s one team that made some important moves that put them one step ahead.

Smooth’s Pick: LA Rams (12-5)

Playoff Predictions

#1 LA Rams
#2 Philadelphia
#3 Chicago
#4 Tampa Bay
Wildcard Teams: #5 Seattle, #6 Green Bay, #7 San Francisco

Wildcard Weekend

Philadelphia over San Francisco
Chicago over Green Bay
Seattle over Tampa Bay

Divisional Round

LA Rams over Philadelphia
Seattle over Chicago

NFC Championship

LA Rams over Seattle

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LA Rams vs. Buffalo – I think the change was needed in Buffalo, as Sean McDermott was given plenty of chances, but failed to get the Bills over the hump. They have a favorable schedule this season, and a home AFC Championship game should send them to their first Super Bowl in more three decades. The Rams made some key moves during the off season, and they should be able to return to the Super Bowl. Their defense will be the key to their success, and if Aaron Donald decides to return for another ring, I can’t anyone beating them the last two months of the season .

Smooth’s Pick: LA Rams (34-13)

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And finally we want to give you three coaches that are on the “hot seat” this season

Zac Taylor, Cincinnati – His Bengals made some moves on defense, and we have them winning the division. But a slow start could put Taylor on the unemployment line.

Dan Campbell, Detroit – He’s come close three years in a row, but with a tough NFC North and an even tougher schedule, it’s Super Bowl or bust.

Aaron Glenn, NY Jets – We said he was given the benefit of the doubt by the team owner. But right now, the odds are against him. He needs to show progress in the first 5 games of the season, or it’s a pink slip
From Woody Johnson.

It’s gonna be a long season, and we can’t wait for week 1 to get started. We’ll see you late

Some of the NFL’s Best Post-Game Meltdowns in this video called, “You Play to Win the Game”

With the big story of Seattle Seahawks’ defensive back Richard Sherman making the headlines this week, I’d like to take a look back at some of the biggest post game meltdowns ever caught on video. I sure wish I could have created this video. Creative and funny!