
A couple of wild finishes during week 5 and the first tie since 2022. It was a crazy week in the NFL. I’ll tell you more about it. But first, lets take a look at how we did with our picks.
Last Week’s Results
Head-to-Head: 9-5-1
Against the Spread: 5-5-4
Season to Date
Head-to-Head: 50-28-1
Against the Spread: 33-28-17
Bye Week Teams: Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, Minnesota
Thursday October 15
Seattle at Denver
Line: Seahawks by 2½
It was pure chaos at Lumen Field, with ejections and the Seahawks committing six turnovers against San Francisco. They also failed on a late defensive stand in the final minute of play. They fall to the 49ers, 32-29. Sam Darnold with 2 of those turnovers for picks. With the loss, the Seahawks drop to 3-2 on the season. They head to the mile high city to take on the Broncos. They continued to struggle on offense this season, this time against the Chargers. But their defense did enough to bring them the victory, 23-17 was the final. LB Nik Bonitto led the Broncos defense with 2 of the five sacks on LA’s Justin Herbert. Denver’s offense is going to have another challenge, this time, against the top defense in the NFL on a short week. However, with the defensing Super Bowl champs starting off slow, they could make it a tough go for them on home soil. I wouldn’t be surprise if this will be a low scoring matchup. If that’s the case, I see an upset brewing.
This is my upset special!
Smooth’s Pick: Denver (19-16)
Sunday October 18

Houston vs Jacksonville
This game is being played in London, UK
Line: Jags by 2½
The Texans finally get themselves in the win column, after a dominating 26-3 win over Tennessee. CJ Stroud with a rushing TD and a passing score to Jaylin Noel late in the 4th quarter. Houston’s defense held the Titans offense to just 187 yards total, and they sacked Cam Ward four times in the victory. They fly across the Atlantic for a game in London against the Jags. This is the third and final game of the season in England, and the second for Jacksonville. Last week’s matchup with Philadelphia started off with a lot of fireworks. Ejections on both sides of the ball, and it was a low scoring affair. It would all come down to the final minutes, where both teams trade FGs. Cam Little’s 57-yard FG with no time to spare gave the Jags a 19-17 victory over the Eagles. Final numbers for Trevor Lawrence, 331 yards passing and two TDs. Those two scores to Parker Washington, who also has 6 catches for 124 yards receiving in the win. With a divisional matchup, both teams need this game badly. More so for the Texans, as they can no longer afford any more bad losses. Jacksonville escaped with the win last week, but can they do the same thing twice? I’m not quite so sure, bit it will be close.
Smooth’s Pick: Jacksonville (24-21)
Chicago at Atlanta
Line: Bears by 3½
The Bears had their worst game of the season, as they were pounded by the Green Bay offense in the second half. 17 unanswered points, and starter Tyson Bagent was benched in favor of Case Keenum. He didn’t fare any better as Chicago gets crushed by the Packers, 31-7. D’Andre Swift was the only bright spot for the Bears, with a TD in the loss. They head to the ATL to take on the Falcons. Last Sunday night, it was “Angry Birds” going at it, and it went to OT for a resolution. Tyler Huntley in for the injured Lamar Jackson took in a 1-yard TD to give the Ravens the lead. With Michael Pennix, Jr. hurt, head coach Kevin Stefanski goes with Tua Tagovailoa at QB. He gives up an INT to secure the win for Baltimore, 30-23 was the final. Jessie Bates with the 36-yard fumble recovery and return for the score. Kyle Pitts gets his first TD reception of the season in the victory. QB Caleb Williams is “progressing” with his injury, but the Bears haven’t determined who will start if he can’t. More importantly, can Chicago’s run defense handle the two Robinsons. Either way, it might be a long day for the Bears, after the spanking they got the week before.
Smooth’s Pick: Atlanta (28-16)
Baltimore at Cleveland
Line: Ravens by 4½
More on that Baltimore victory over Atlanta on Sunday night. Tyler Huntley with 221 total yards and three TDs, including that score in overtime. Another 100+ yard rushing performance for Derrick Henry, and Kyle Hamilton with the game clinching INT. The Ravens fly to Cleveland for a divisional matchup against the Browns. A couple of Andre Szmyt FGs and a TD pass from Dashaun Watson to Denzel Boston from 29-yards gave Cleveland a 12-10 lead in the 4th quarter. But a fumbled snap on a punt attempt from their own 42-yard line amid rainy conditions at the Meadowlands gave the Jets the ball at the Cleveland 23. They would convert the turnover into the go-ahead score; 17-12 Jets was the final. Lamar Jackson reportedly has hope to return to action in Week 6, but Tyler Hunley has proven to be a worthy stop-gap in case he’s unable to. Cleveland’s defense will be a bit tougher than Atlanta’s, so scoring points could be tough. Still, I like the Ravens to pull out a win in this AFC North matchup.
Smooth’s Pick: Baltimore (16-13)
Tennessee at Indianapolis
Line: Colts by 6½
Another game, another poor showing by Cam Ward and the Titans. 170 passing yards and 4 sacks given up by Tennessee’s O-line. Joey Slye was the only offense, with a FG to start the scoring. Only 57 yards rushing accumulated in the loss to Houston. They head to Indianapolis, where aside from the 1-yard TD by Tyler Warren, 5 FGs by Spencer Schrader is all they could muster offensively. Their offense couldn’t get going in the red zone against Pittsburgh, as they lose 34-22. Daniel Jones with 267 yards passing, but 0 TDs in the loss. It’s looking more, and more like the hiring of Robert Saleh as head coach may not have been the best selection. Even more disturbing is the play of Cam Ward. Could a change be in store? Unless they can somehow overcome these obstacles, they’re going to be instore for another bad loss. I like the Colts in this divisional matchup.
This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick: Indianapolis (37-12)
NY Jets at New England
Line: Patriots by 7½
Give credit to Gang Green’s special teams for setting up the game winning 22-yard TD by Braden Allen. The defense also neutralized the Cleveland offense, for only 12 points, and 8 sacks on Dashaun Watson. They are now 2-3 on the season. They head to Foxborough for a tough AFC East matchup against the Patriots, where Drake Maye is back to his old self again. He accumulated 5 TDs, 4 of them passing on 374 yards, as New England pummeled Las Vegas, 45-17. Rhamondre Stevenson returns to action after injury with a rushing TD in the win. If Gang Green is going to win this game, they’ll have to neutralize the Patriots offense. Drake Maye has found his groove, and that could be tough on the road. I like the Pats to take the win, rather easily.
Smooth’s Pick: New England (31-16)
New Orleans at NY Giants
Line: Saints by 1½
After a Kendre Miller 2-yd TD, the Saints offense ran into a buzz saw in the Minnesota defense. They had to generate something with their own defense, and that made it happen with a Jonas Sanker 87-yard fumble recovery for a TD. That’s all they could muster as New Orleans lose to the Vikings, 23-13. Only 55 yards rushing accumulated for the Saints. They head to the Meadowlands to take on the Giants. The G-Men struggled with the Washington run defense and the rain all together last Sunday. But they didn’t break down completely. Jameis Winston rallied Big Blue from 14 points down with TD strikes to Isaish Likely, his 2nd of the game, and Malik Nabers who had 11 catches for 121 yards and a score. That sends the game into OT, where both teams had attempts to win the ball game. Cam Scattebo’s fumbled deep in Commanders territory. That gave Washington a chance to win, but bad clock management on the part of Jayden Daniels and head coach Dan Quinn ended the game in a 27-all tie. Final numbers for Winston, 323 yards passing and 3 TDs as both teams finish the game all-square. At 3-1-1, they’re a game and a half of Dallas, Philly and Washington in the NFC East. The Saints may have the same problems against the Giants defensive front. They’ve made progress in the first two games of the season, before dropping two straight. So, this is another winnable game for the G-Men. Mistakes prevented a win last Sunday, and it will be the same here. Even though they’re the underdog, I like Big Blue to come out with the win on Sunday.
Smooth’s Pick: NY Giants (24-19)
Carolina at Philadelphia
Line: Eagles by 1½
The Panthers are coming off a bye week, and they needed it, as they encountered a number of injuries over the last five weeks. DB’s Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson are both on IR. The offense lost wide receiver Xavier Legette to a knee injury and Jalen Coker to a quadriceps issue. Left guard Damien Lewis also missed time with a UCL injury in his elbow. The Panthers are playing with replacements who have less experience and less time to practice together. They head to Philly, where many things went wrong for the Eagles during their loss to Jacksonville in London last Sunday. But the fatal blow happened after they thought they scored the game winning FG with 8 seconds left in regulation. Jacksonville kick returner Ameer Abdullah brought back a 53-yard kick return into Philly territory and in FG range. Chad Little kicks a 57-yard walk off FG to give the Jags the win. Jalen Hurts threw for 220 yards and a TD, no Saquon Barkley in this game. Don’t look now, but the Eagles are looking more, and more vulnerable as the season progresses. Between injuries and bad play, could they even make the playoffs? Another loss, and it could spell trouble for Nick Siriani. I think the bye week helps the Panthers get an upset win in Philly.
Smooth’s Pick: Carolina (21-17)
Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay
Line: Steelers by 2½
Aaron Rodgers breaks a couple of records in the win against Indianapolis. He joins Terry Bradshaw and Ben Roethlisberger as the only Steelers QB with three consecutive games with 3 TDs. He also passed Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning for the most touchdown passes in the regular season and postseason combined. Pittsburgh heads south to Tampa, where last week, we said the Bucs defense needed to step up and stop Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense. They did just that, and utilize their run game to pull off one of the biggest point spread upsets off the season. Bucky Irving tallied 165 yards rushing and a touchdown on the ground. Jalon Daniels went 19 of 25 for 189 yards with a touchdown in the 24-16 stunner over the Cowboys. We’ll tell you how this game could have gone the other way later on in the broadcast. The Bucs are going to have a tougher time with the Steelers defense generating points. Even though they’re at home, the Steelers are the much healthier team, and that’s why I’m taking them to win this Sunday.
Smooth’s Pick: Pittsburgh (23-14)
Arizona at LA Rams
Line: Rams by 12½
After winning their opening game against the Chargers, the Cardinals have lost four straight, falling to Detroit, 45-21. The Lions got out to a 31-7 lead, and the game was over after that. Before the game, Arizona send WR Marvin Harrisoon, Jr. and a 2027 seventh-round pick to the Texans in exchange for a 2027 second-round pick and a 2027 sixth-round pick. Harrison was the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 draft, and finished his Cardinals career with 108 receptions for 1,578 yards and 13 touchdowns in 33 games. The Cards head to LA for an NFC West matchup with the Rams. There were 8 lead changes in that Monday night matchup against LA and Buffalo. It took OT to get to a resolution. In the end, a blocked FG by the Bills special teams led to a 37-yard walk-off win for Buffalo. Despite the loss the Rams got some big numbers from key players. Matthew Stafford with 383 yards passing and 3 TDs, Puka Nacua with 17 catches for 138 yards and a score in the loss. At 2-3, the Rams are probably the biggest disappointment in the league. They’re supposed to be Super Bowl contenders, but they’re come up short three times. They should be able to get back on track with the weaker Cardinals coming to town.
Smooth’s Pick: LA Rams (38-17)
LA Chargers at Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 8½
Another ugly game for Justin Herbert, he was sacked 5 times, and fumbled twice, one of them was a turnover. He did find Hayden Rucci for a 7-yard TD pass in the third quarter. Kimami Vidal would give the Bolts a 42 yards rushing score for a 17-10 lead, but Denver would score 13 unanswered points in the 4th to get the victory. The Bolts head to KC, where the Chiefs are coming off a bye week. They’re 4-0, and the rest of the AFC West is struggling to catch up. But they shouldn’t take their undefeated streak lightly. After the Bolts, they have Seattle and Denver to keep their streak intact, and it won’t be easy. In this game, however, I expect a Bolts team to play with desperation. Another loss, and you have to wonder how long Jim Harbaugh has in his tenure as head coach.
Smooth’s Pick: Kansas City (33-20)
Buffalo at Las Vegas
Line: Bills by 5½
Buffalo had to fight hard for that Monday night win against the Rams. As we said before, 8 lead changes, plus OT. Josh Allen rushed for 121 yards on 10 carries and a TD, he also threw for 210 yards and another score. James Cook had a rough night. Despite 25 carries for 111 yards and two TDs, he also fumbled three times, one led to a LA TD that sent the game to OT. The Bills head to sin city, where the Silver and Black defense gave up 536 total yards to the New England offense, and the defense didn’t do any better, giving up 4 sacks. With the blowout loss, Las Vegas head coach Klint Kubiak got a chance to look at his #1 overall pick from this year’s NFL draft in action. Fernando Mendoza was 6 for 8 for 48 yards, no TD and no turnovers. They should tighten up being at home, but if we see another performance like last Sunday, we could see more of Mendoza. I think the Bills will win, but it will be closer.
Smooth’s Pick: Buffalo (23-19)
Dallas at Green Bay
Line: Packers by 1½
The Cowboys could have won their game against Tampa Bay last Thursday night. After being down 24-10 in the 4th quarter, Dallas took advantage of a 4th down stop at their own 1-yard line and drove 99 yards to score a TD. After a three and out by the Bucs, Dak Prescott took his offense to the Tampa Bay 25-yard line. That’s when he gave up a late INT, to drop the Cowboys to 2-3 on the season. They head to Lambeau Field to take on the Packers, who had their best game on both sides of the ball this season against Chicago last Sunday. Jordan Love torched the Bears secondary for 367 yards passing and 2 TDs. Devonte Watt with two of the four sacks on Chicago QB in the win. It’s taken too much time for Dallas’ defense to jell. On the flip side, mistakes are ruining the Cowboys offense. It’s gotten Jerry Jones pretty frustrated. He’s beginning to lose patience, and I’m wondering what options he has. Something tells me the Cowboys are going to snap out of it this Sunday night.
Smooth’s Pick: Dallas (30-17)
Monday October 19
Washington at San Francisco
Line: 49ers by 7½
If Dan Quinn winds up getting fired down the stretch or at the end of the season, he can look back at last Sunday’s game as the turning point of the end of his tenure. His Commanders were deep in Giants territory, only needing a FG to win. But calling a run play with less than :10 seconds to go in the OT period was deadly, as they didn’t have enough time to spike the ball. The game ends in a tie. Which is unfortunate, because Jayden Daniels had a killer day on the ground, rushing 9 times for 103 yards and two TDs. However, he was also sacked 5 times in the game. The Commanders head to Santa Clara to take on the 49ers, where the defense got the job done against the Seahawks in Seattle. Brock Purdy with two TD passes, one of them to Mike Evans, who caught 7 passes for 113 yards receiving and that score. The Commanders played well enough to win last Sunday night. That’s why some pundits say this game will be the perfect time to redeem themselves. However, with the Niners running ion all four cylinders, I think they will come out ahead.
Smooth’s Pick: San Francisco (34-26)


























