Smooth’s NFL Football Picks 2026 (Week 5 – Surprises at the top and bottom of the NFL)

Four weeks are now in the books, and we have some stunning surprises at the top and bottom of the NFL standings. Which head coaches are really on the hot seat after slow starts? We’ll go over who is threading the needle. But first, here’s how we did during week 4.

Last Week’s Results

Head-to-Head: 10-6
Against the Spread: 5-6-5

Season to Date

Head-to-Head: 41-23
Against the Spread: 28-23-13

Bye Week Teams: Carolina and Kansas City

Thursday, October 8

Tampa Bay at Dallas
Line: Cowboys by 9½

Desperation time for the Bucs, as they’re winless at 0-4 and without their star QB Baker Mayfield. Todd Bowles had to rely on undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels at QB. He threw for his first TD pass to Kenny Gainwell late in the game, but they would fall short in their game against Green Bay, 17-14 was the final. Daniels numbers on the day 19-27 for 148 yards and that score. He was also picked off twice. They head to Dallas, where the Cowboys snapped a two-game losing skid by beating Houston. They trailed a good part of the game, but it was a late TD from Dak Prescott to CeeDee Lamb with only :43 second left to give Dallas a 34-30 win. Prescott threw for 335 yards passing and that score. The win puts them at 2-2 on the season. At 0-4, Bowles needs a win from his team badly, and with the team playing below his expectations, that’s going to be hard to come by. For the Cowboys, they certainly lucked out with that come from behind win. Unless the Bucs defense can step up and stop Prescott and company, the inevitable may just happen after Thursday.

Smooth’s Pick: Dallas (31-13)

Sunday, October 11

Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville
This game is being played in London
Line: Jags by 3½

The second of three international games in London. It’s getting ugly in Philly, as they lose their 2nd straight, this time at home against the Rams. It started off well for the Eagles, going ahead by 10 at halftime. Then the dam burst. LA would score 14 unanswered points to win, 24-20. Only 93 yards passing for Jalen Hurts, but he did throw for 2 scores. Bad news as Saquon Barkley left the game with a pulled hamstring. It’s unknown about his status for this Sunday. They take on the Jags, where Trevor Lawrence threw for 227 yards and a TD pass to Brian Thomas. Chris Rodriguez scored on a 25-yard rushing TD late. Jacksonville holds on for the 22-18 win over Cincinnati. At 2-2, head coach Nick Siriani is beginning to feel more heat trying to get his team on track, and with the Jags coming to London, it may be tough to salvage a win. Without the Eagles missing a few of their key players, I’m afraid I like the Jags to take this is a place they’ve played very well in.

Smooth’s Pick: Jacksonville (26-17)

Chicago at Green Bay
Line: Bears by 2½

Bears head coach Ben Johnson decided to go with Tyson Bagent at QB, after he was cleared from the concussion protocol. Much of the action was on the ground, where Kyle Monangai rushed 30 times for 147 yards and two scores, as Chicago beats the Jets, 23-12. They head to Lambeau Field, where the Packers got a much-needed win against Tampa Bay to get to .500. The defense came to the rescue and sacked Jalon Daniels three times and picked him off twice. Jordan Love with two TD passes to Tucker Kraft and Marcus Golden in the victory. The win takes the heat off Packers head coach Matt LeFleur, but now they have a must win situation against a divisional opponent. It’s unclear if Caleb Williams will return this Sunday, so that gives the Pack an advantage. They’ll have to stop the run somehow. They haven’t looked good the last few games on defense, so that will be the difference maker. I like the Bears in this game, just slightly.

Smooth’s Pick: Chicago (19-17)

Houston at Tennessee
Line: Texans by 6½

Stunned surprise, as the Texans lose their 4th straight to open the season with a home loss to Dallas. CJ Stroud did all he could throwing for 347 yards and 2 TDs, Nico Collins the recipient of both those scores with 7 catches for 118 yards receiving. In the end, the defense just could not hold the fort. They head to Nashville for a crucial AFC South matchup against the Titans. They continued their slide, falling to 0-4 on the season with a loss to Baltimore, 24-18. Tony Pollard scored a TD early, Cam Ward and Wan’Dale Robinson hooked up for a late TD to beat the point spread. Texans head coach Demarco Ryans is clearly on the hot seat after four tough losses that could have gone there way. As for the Titans, the tenure of Robert Saleh is now on shaky ground after four straight losses. Something’s gotta give this Sunday, and in a divisional matchup, it’s looking like this game could go down to the wire.

Smooth’s Pick: Houston (21-18)

Cincinnati at Miami
Line: Bengals by 6½

Joe Burrow went 39 for 54 for 428 yards passing and a TD to Tee Higgins, but he was intercepted twice in the Cincinnati loss to Jacksonville. Higgins with 11 catches for 157 yards. The Bengals also lost JaMarr Chase due to a concussion, it’s unknown about his status for this Sunday against Miami. As for the Fish, the defense held the Vikings to just 5 FGs on the day. Unfortunately, they had all kinds of problems scoring on their own. Ollie Gordon with a 12-yard TD, as they fall to Minnesota, 15-10. Gordon with 9 carries and reached the century mark in the loss. It’s an encouraging sign when Miami’s defense played a solid game preventing Minnesota from scoring in the red zone. Unfortunately, their offense continues to struggle, and they’ll continue to do so against a tough Bengals “D”.

This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick: Cincinnati (33-14)

Las Vegas at New England
Line: Patriots by 3½

Despite a career day from Kenneth Walker for the Chiefs, the Raiders kept their game against Kansas City close for much of the game until the 4th quarter. That’s when their defense collapsed, giving up 2 TDs. They lose to KC, 30-27. Kirk Cousins with another big day, 365 yards passing and 2 TDs, Alston Jeanty with 126 total yards in the loss. The Silver and Black heads to Foxborough to take on the Patriots. After two disappointing performances by Drake Maye, he finally got back to normal. He threw for 269 yards, 323 yards total and two TDs, including the game winner to Efton Chism. New England upsets Buffalo, 29-26. Romeo Doubs with two of those TD catches. The win also brings them back to .500. The Raiders are proving that they’re no longer pushovers, but this will be a tough task despite the way the Pats have been playing of late. Expect a tighter game and a tough finish to go along with it.

Smooth’s Pick: New England (27-24)

Minnesota at New Orleans
Line: Saints by 1½

The Vikings offense was held to FGs, and Kyler Murray was sacked 4 times. However, LB Dallas Turner got both sacks on Malik Willis to solidify the win over Miami and climb to 4-0 on the season. They head to the “Big Easy”, where the Saints defense got run over by Atlanta’s run offense. They gave up 420 total offensive yards, as they fall to the Falcons, 45-24. Despite a weak run game, Alvin Kamara did get two rushing TDs in the loss. Tyler Shough had a bad night and heard lots of boos from the home crowd. It’s not gonna get any easier against a tough Vikings defense. Unless he can outsmart their pass rush, I’m afraid it might be a long day, despite the point spread. I like the Vikings to win.

Smooth’s Pick: Minnesota (20-14)

Cleveland at NY Jets
Line: Jets by 1½

More smiles from Browns fans, as Dashaun Watson threw for 268 yards and a TD. Quishon Judkins with a TD score, and the defense bent, but didn’t break against Aaron Rodgers as they beat Pittsburgh last Thursday night, 27-24. The Browns are now 3-1, and on top of the AFC North division. They head to the Meadowlands, where the Jets drop their third straight game, this time to Chicago. Geno Smith found Isaiah Williams for a 59-yard strike late in the game when the outcome was known. Other than that highlight, Gang Green’s offense was stymied by the Bears defense. Despite their 1-3 record, head coach Aaron Glenn continues to make sure his team stays competitive. Their record could have gone the other way around. As for the Browns, a bit of luck went their way in all three of their wins. This is a hard to determine matchup, as both teams are evenly matched. So, it will all come down to special teams. Having said that, I like the home team.

Smooth’s Pick: NY Jets (15-12)

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh
Line: Steelers by 2½

Daniel Jones started the game in London horribly with an INT and a lost fumble. But adjusted from that debacle to score a TD. The Colts got their footing back courtesy of Jonathan Taylor’s 2 rushing TDs. Indianapolis was able to handle Washington, 30-13. They head to the steel city to take on Pittsburgh. It was a frustrating night for Aaron Rodgers and Steelers head coach Mike McCarthy, as they exchanged f-bombs on prime-time TV. Rodgers with 299 yards passing and three TDs, but he was also sacked 5 times and threw two INTs in the loss to Cleveland. The Steelers get an extra couple of days to recover from their Thursday night matchup, while the Colts have to cross the Atlantic and play this Sunday. However, the issue with the Steelers right now giving up points, and lots of them, 27+ plus in both games. If DJ doesn’t give up turnovers, they may well stun the Steelers on the road. That being said, I like Rodgers and company to eke out a victory.

Smooth’s Pick: Pittsburgh (31-28)

NY Giants at Washington
Line: Commanders by 3½

The G-Men started off slow, as the defense gave up two TDs in the 1st half. They got their footing after two FGs when Jameis Winston found Malachai Fields for his 1st NFL TD. Then, Winston would find Malik Nabers for is first score of the season to give Big Blue the lead at halftime. After a Arizona TD, Jameis Winston would find Theo Johnson for his 3rd TD pass of the game. It would all come down to the final set of plays for the Cardinals. On 4th down and goal, Deonte Banks would intercept the pass and take it 98 yards to the house to seal the victory for the G-Men, 36-24 was the final. The Giants have now won two straight, are a perfect 3-0 at MetLife Stadium, and are 1-0 inside the NFC East. Winston overcame two picks to throw for 250 yards and those 3 TDs. More importantly, they’re all alone in 1st place in the NFC East, the first time since 2008. They head to the nation’s capital to take on the Commanders who get some good news heading into this Sunday’s game. Jayden Daniels has been cleared to play this Sunday. They lost Marcus Mariotta to injury in last week’s loss to Indianapolis, and had to rely on 3rd string QB, Athan Kaliakmanis. He was a 7th round pick in this year’s draft. In London, he threw for 186 yards a TD and an INT in the loss to the Colts. This game is a trap for the G-Men. Riding a two-game win streak, I’m almost content for a let-down, especially with Daniels returning to action. But I think they might just pull it off. It all depends on the play of Winston for that to happen.

This is my upset special!
Smooth’s Pick: NY Giants (25-21)

Denver at LA Chargers
Line: Broncos by 3½

The Broncos offense continue to struggle, as they were unable to get any offensive fire power going for most of their game against San Francisco. Bo Nix did find Jaylen Waddle for a TD in the 4th quarter to keep it close. But the 49ers score late, they win it, 24-14. They head to LA, where the Chargers are in some desperate trouble after dropping to 0-4 on the season. This time at the hands of Seattle. The offense struggled significantly, and Justin Herbert threw a pair of interceptions in the 30-23 loss. Final numbers for Herbert, 19-31 for 189 yards passing a TD and those two picks. He was also sacked 4 times. More trouble for Bolts head coach Jim Harbaugh, as his offense is not up to par. Their hope is that the Broncos offense can continue to struggle, but their defense will have to kick it up a notch. I like the Broncos to win a close AFC West battle.

Smooth’s Pick: Denver (23-20)

Detroit at Arizona
Line: Lions by 4½

Jared Goff led all passers during week 4 with 412 yards. Unfortunately for the Lions, he was only able to throw 1 TD, and the Carolina defense gave him all kinds of problems. Detroit loses to the Panthers, 32-26. Jameson Williams with 6 catches for 106 yards receiving and that score, Jamyr Gibbs with a rushing score in the loss. The pride heads to the desert to take on the Cardinals. Jacoby Brissett made a lot of mistakes in the loss to the Giants on Sunday. But none more consequential than that pick six that ended the Cardinals late rally with :11 seconds to go. Final stats for Brissett, 21 for 35 for 166 yards passing, two TDs and three picks. That one mistake was the difference from being 2-2 and at .500. Instead, they drop to 1-3 on the season. Coming home helps, as their offense does have some life. If they can give the Lions the same pressure they’ve received in the last 4 games, they might just pull it off. However, I like the Lions to win.

Smooth’s Pick: Detroit (30-24)

San Francisco at Seattle
Line: Seahawks by 3½

Brock Purdy with 218 yards passing and two TDs, one to Deebo Samuel, the other to George Kittle which was the game winner, as they beat Denver and stay undefeated at 4-0. Christian McCaffery also with a TD in the win. They face their toughest test to date, as they head north to the Emerald city to take on division rival, Seattle. The defense got to Justin Herbert 4 times, and Sam Darnold withstood a INT to throw for two TDs in the win over the Chargers. That Seahawks defense is currently number one in the NFL, giving up only 246.8 yards a game, and the Niners offense is going to have to somehow withstand that pass rush. I think Purdy and McCaffrey will get their yardage, but against that 12th man, it’s going to be mighty tough. I like Seahawks to win a close game.

Smooth’s Pick: Seattle (24-21)

Baltimore at Atlanta
Line: Falcons by 1½

Lamar Jackson threw for 222 yards and two TDs, but he had to leave the game after suffering an ankle injury in the win over Tennessee. Team doctors said he is day to day and will probably be a gametime decision for this Sunday. The Ravens fly to the ATL to take on another flock of feathered rivals, the dirty birds. The Robinsons continue to run all over the league. Bijan with 145 yards and 2 TDs, Brian with a career best 3 TDs. Altogether, they both ran for 207 yards as they beat New Orleans. If Jackson doesn’t start, it will be Tyler Huntley under center for the Ravens, who knows the system. You’ll probably see more of Derrick Henry on rushing plays. However, the key will be whether they can stop that two-headed monster called the B-Robinsons. Both teams have stacked defenses, so this game may well be a low scoring affair. I think the dirty birds should come out on top.

Smooth’s Pick: Atlanta (20-17)

Monday, October 12

Buffalo at LA Rams
Line: Rams by 2½

Lots of sloppiness, as Josh Allen threw a late INT and the Buffalo defense consistently came up short in latest frustrating loss to New England. Final numbers for Allen, 253 yards passing and two TDs, James Cook also with a rushing TD in the loss. The Bills head to LA to take on the Rams. Matthew Stafford threw two INTs early against Philadelphia, but it was the running game of Kyren Williams that gave LA the fighting chance. He finds the end zone twice in the 4th quarter to ensure the victory over the Eagles. Puka Nakua returns from injury with 9 catches for 125 yards in the win. It’s that sloppy play that should concern the Bills Mafia, and against a team like the Rams, they’re going to take full advantage of their mistakes. I picked these two teams as my Super Bowl picks, so this will be a preview of February, that is, if both teams make it that far. For this matchup, I favor the home team.

Smooth’s Pick: LA Rams (28-21)

Smooth’s NFL Football Picks 2026 (This Week’s Power Rankings)

Week 4 – More big surprises in the NFL, and the G-Men lose another important piece. This time on the defensive side. We’ll get to that, and more. But first lets finds out how we did during week 3.

Last Week’s Results

Head-to-Head: 9-7
Against the Spread: 8-7-1

Season to Date

Head-to-Head: 31-17
Against the Spread: 23-17-8

Before we go to our picks for week 4, lets take a look at the first NFL Power Rankings.

Top 5

5. Baltimore
4. Seattle
3. Buffalo
2. Kansas City
1. San Francisco

Bottom 5

28. Green Bay
29. Tampa Bay
30. Miami
31. New England
32. Tennessee

Thursday, October 1

Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Line: Steelers by 2 ½

The Steelers were in a see-saw battle with Cincinnati on Sunday, trading TDs and FGs until the final minute of play. That’s when Steelers defensive tackle Derrick Harmon sacked and stripped Joe Burrow of the football to seal the win, 30-27 was final. Aaron Rodgers went 19 for 34 for 292 yards passing and 3 TDs. Jaylen Warren with 17 carries for 127 yards in the Steelers victory. They head to Cleveland, where Browns fans finally have something to cheer about. Dashaun Watson led a 4th quarter comeback that ended with 14-yard TD pass to Harold Fannin, Jr., his second of the game from Watson. The 2-pt conversion would seal the victory over Carolina, 21-18. That win was a good sign for the Browns, as they proved they could hang with a formidable team on the road. That gives them momentum. The Steelers have momentum of their own with a tough win over a divisional opponent. It’s going to be a tough battle on a short week; however, I like the Steelers to steal a win against their division rival.

Smooth’s Pick: Pittsburgh (17-13)

Sunday, October 4

Indianapolis at Washington
This game is being played in London, England
Line: Colts by 3

This is the first of three NFL games being played in the United Kingdom. As we mentioned before in previous broadcasts, the league will also make stops in Madrid, Paris and Mexico City as part of its global outreach. The Colts snapped a nine-game winless drought dating back to last October and a five-game drought to their divisional rivals. Kicker Spencer Shrader nails the 53-yard field goal to give the Colts the lead for good over Houston, 19-17 was the final. Daniel Jones with 235 yards and a TD to Keenan Allen in the win. They take on the Commanders, who put together a stunning upset of the Super Bowl champs. Marcus Marriota in for the injured Jayden Daniels threw three TD passes, and a pick-6 by Kain Medrano turned out to be the game winner, 33-31 over Seattle was the final. Given it’s considered a neutral site, both teams won’t have a home advantage, but the Colts are favored slightly due to Marriota starting at QB for the Commanders. That shouldn’t be the case. It will however be a close game. It’s all gonna come down to special teams.

Smooth’s Pick: Indianapolis (21-19)

New England at Buffalo
Line: Bills by 6½

Drake Maye had one of his worst games at QB for the Patriots, giving up three turnovers. He was also benched late in the second half, as the offense was completely shut down. New England falls badly to Jacksonville, 35-6. They head to Buffalo to take on the Bills. They were surprised in the first half by the Chargers. Down 10-0 after the 1st quarter, they rallied and tied it at halftime. They would outscore the Bolts 14-6 in the 2nd half, enroute to a 24-16 win. Josh Allen overcame two INTs to rush for two TDs in the Buffalo victory. There no more surprises, as teams have been able to find out what makes Drake Maye tick. However, with the Bills defense shaky at times this season, I’m looking at the Pats getting back to the swing of things against their AFC East rivals. Winning is another story.

Smooth’s Pick: Buffalo (28-24)

NY Jets at Chicago
Line: Bears by 3½

Geno Smith with big day against Detroit, as he threw for 321 yards and 3 TDs. But Gang Green would fall to the Lions on a late TD, 31-24 was the final. Garrett Wilson and Kenyon Sadiq each go over the century mark in receiving yards and a TD in the loss. The head to the Windy City to take on the Bears, Caleb Williams is going to miss action because of a hamstring, and Tyson Bagent was a last-minute scratch. Enter 38-year-old Case Keenum at QB. He pulled off a shocking performance, throwing for 238 yards and three TDs. They crushed Philadelphia, 27-7. Despite the loss to Detroit, Gang Green still played a spirited game and could have been 3-0 right now. Can they keep this pace going? That’s a big unknown, but for both teams, its all going to come down to mistakes.

Smooth’s Pick: Chicago (25-21)

Jacksonville at Cincinnati
Line: Bengals by 2½

Trevor Lawrence with 3 TD passes and the Jacksonville defense forced three turnovers for TDs. They also sacked Drake Maye three times in the win over New England. Liam Coen picked up his 15th win in 20 games as the Jags Head coach. That’s the fastest of any coach that started his NFL career for wins. The Jags head to Cincinnati, where Joe Burrow threw for 282 yards passing and three TDs, but gave up a crucial fumble in the final minute of play that proved to be the fatal blow to the Bengals. They fall to rival Pittsburgh. Jamar Chase, Tee Higggins and Mike Gesicki each with TD receptions in the loss. Lawrence will have his hands full with the Bengals front four. Burrow and the Bengals receivers will also be tested by the Jags secondary. This is also a game that could be a barn burner. I give the edge to the home team.

Smooth’s Pick: Cincinnati (30-27)

Arizona at NY Giants
Line: Giants by 1½

The Cardinals withstood a San Francisco offensive onslaught and made a comeback of their own. Jacoby Brissett went 38 for 52 for 280 yards passing and 3 TDs. But a late rally would come up short. They fall to the 49ers, 36-30. They head to the Meadowlands, where the Giants defense held the Titans to just ONE 1st down in the first half. They also had a key four down stop, and DB Jevon Holland picked off Cam Ward in the end zone with time running down, as the G-Men beat Tennessee, 12-7. Rookie kicker Dominik Zvada accounted for all 12 points in the win. Big Blue also gets more bad news as they lose pass rusher Brian Burns to a season-ending torn ACL. They also made some moves releasing Odell Beckham Jr. and picking up QB JJ MaCarthy via trade and LB Jihad Ward off the practice squad from Minnesota. As for the game itself, Arizona is still a work in progress, but they gave the Niners all they had last Sunday. The Cardinals will try to use their run game to slow the pace and keep ball control. It’s not going to be easy, but the defense of the G-Men is going to have to come through again for a win to happen.

Smooth’s Pick: NY Giants (16-14)

LA Rams at Philadelphia
Line: Rams by 2½

The Rams blew a 16-0 halftime lead and a 26-23 advantage late in the fourth quarter as Denver rallied to beat L.A, 30-26. Matthew Stafford finished the game with 390 yards passing and 2 TDs. Davante Adams with 7 catches for 137 yards receiving in the loss. They head to Philly, where the Eagles played one of their worst offensive games in the Nick Siriani era. Aside from a late TD by Jalen Hurts to close out the half, they were just horrible. Only 22% percent on 3rd downs all game against Chicago. Being at home will help the Eagles get back to normal, but against a tough Rams defense, they’re going to have to somehow get back on track. I think this is a game where they can take advantage by making sure the Rams start slow and hold them to as little points as possible.

This is my upset special!
Smooth’s Pick: Philadelphia (27-21)

Green Bay at Tampa Bay
Line: Packers by 3½

Packer fans are all of the sudden having doubts about this season. This, after being manhandled by Atlanta in their own stadium on Thursday night, 35-14. The Green Bay defense gave up nearly 500 yards of offense to the Falcons. Meanwhile, their own rushing was putrid, only 17 yards on the ground accumulated. They head to Tampa, where the Bucs drop their third straight, and lose their starting QB. Baker Mayfield left the game against Minnesota with an injured thumb. He was also sacked six times, as they fall to the Vikings, 23-16. Mayfield will miss some time and may need surgery. That spells bad news for Bucs head coach Todd Boles, at 0-3, he can’t afford to lose any more games, and with Mayfield out for an extended period, he has to find a way to get his team to respond. Matt LeFleur is also in a pickle. The Thursday night embarrassment puts him in the hot seat, although he may have a better chance getting his team a win given what the Bucs are going through.

Smooth’s Pick: Green Bay (26-13)

Tennessee at Baltimore
Line: Ravens by 11½

The game didn’t start well for the Titans against the Giants. A fumble on the opening kick gave the G-Men instant momentum. Luckily, the turnover didn’t turn into points. The offense was atrocious, with only one 1st down in the 1st half. Cam Ward did get better in the 2nd half, finding Wan’Dale Robinson for a second half score. But it was his late INT in the end zone with time running down that doomed the Titans to a 0-3 start this season. They head to Baltimore, where the Ravens come home from Rio with a thrilling finish for South American NFL fans. Ravens kicker Tyler Loop capped a seven-second drive with a walk-off 56-yard FG, 34-31 Baltimore over Dallas was the final. Lamar Jackson with two TD passes. Derrick Henry with 89 yards and 2 TDs. He passes Eric Dickerson for 9th place in all-time rushing yards. Cam Ward cannot make mistakes like he did last week, and against a tough Baltimore defense, it only gets tougher. Unless the weather forecast is the same as it was last Sunday, I’m afraid the Titans are going to have an even worse time against that Ravens defense.

This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick: Baltimore (33-17)

Dallas at Houston
Line: Texans by 2½

Getting back to that Ravens/Cowboys game in Rio. A crucial moment, as Dax Prescott had an open George Pickens on a third-and-goal at Baltimore’s 5-yard line with 14 seconds remaining in regulation. He threw the ball away and they settled for a game tying FG. With one timeout remaining, that gave Baltimore all they needed to kick that walk-off FG for the win. They return to the states to take on Houston. The Texans fall to 0-3 after a disappointing loss to division rival, Indianapolis. The Houston defense was able to keep the score low led by Will Anderson’s 2½ sacks. But a late start to the offense in the 2nd half led to being the Texans becoming one of 5 winless teams to start the season. CJ Stroud went 16 for 27 for 167 yards passing and a TD in the loss. The Cowboys are also desperate, losers of two out of three games. Much of the blame goes to the defense, which hasn’t tightened up so far this season. On the other hand, the Texans lost some tough matchups that could have gone there way. With both teams desperate for wins, it will all come down to special teams, which favors the Cowboys.

Smooth’s Pick: Dallas (34-31)

Miami at Minnesota
Line: Vikings by 10½

With less than three minutes remaining in the third quarter, Miami had visions of a stunning upset intact when they trailed Kansas City, 14-10. But a roughing the passer penalty put those dreams to rest. They never got their offense going as they fall to the Chiefs, 24-10. They also had some bad news as they also lose their big time running back, De’Von Achane with a season-ending with a torn ACL. The Fish head to Minneapolis on Sunday. Don’t look now, but the Vikings are in 1st place in the NFC North. Not only that, they’re undefeated at 3-0, after a big win against Tampa Bay. Kyler Murray found Jordan Addison 5 times for 90 yards and a TD. However, Justin Jefferson left the game with an ankle injury. He’s considered day-to-day for Sunday. Even without Jefferson, the Vikings have proven that they’re able to be competitive in this early NFL season. A win against a weaker opponent this Sunday can only improve their standing in the NFC.

Smooth’s Pick: Minnesota (38-12)

Kansas City at Las Vegas
Line: Chiefs by 4½

Patrick Mahomes with 246 yards passing and 2 TDs. He withstood a vicious sack from Miami’s Chop Robinson, where the DT landed with his full weight on him. The sack ended up being an unnecessary roughness penalty and didn’t count. Never the less, KC escapes Miami with the win and remain undefeated at 3-0. They head to sin city for a divisional matchup against the Raiders, who are also 3-0 under head coach Klint Kuibiak. That’s their best start since 2021. Kirk Cousins with 22-of-33 for 248 yards and three TDs in the 35-24 win over New Orleans. This is a crucial game for the Silver and Black and will show whether they’re for real, or they’re pretenders. Even though I like them to play hard and give KC a run for their money at home, I still think the Chiefs will steal a win on the road against their division rival.

Smooth’s Pick: Kansas City (23-19)

Denver at San Francisco
Line: 49ers by 2½

The Broncos could not get any offense going in the 1st half, and it looked like they were going to get blown out of their own building. But Bo Nix led his team to a 30-point comeback in the 2nd half, with three TDs including the game winning rushing score against Rams on Sunday night. The defense gets an INT during the last play of the game to win it for Denver. They head to Santa Clara, where Brock Purdy with another offensive juggernaut, 331 total yards, including 297 in the air and 4 TDs, as they beat Arizona. However, they continue to be bitten by the injury bug, as they lost Mike Evans and Trent Williams during the game. Both injuries are considered short term and they’re expected to play this Sunday. Very good news for the Niners, as they could use all the offensive weaponry they can find. If the defense can rattle Nix and force the run game, it could be a long day for the Broncos. However, I like the Niners to win a closely contested, high scoring matchup.

Smooth’s Pick: San Francisco (31-28)

LA Chargers at Seattle
Line: Seahawks by 6½

Things started off pretty good for the Bolts, getting out in front early against Buffalo. But after that, their offense just could not get things on track. They drop to 0-3 on the year, and it’s not getting any easier for the Bolts, as they head to the Emerald city to take on the Seahawks. Sam Darnold returned to action. He threw for 379 yards and 4 TDs. But he gave up two INTs, including that pick-6, as they lose to Washington. Jaxon Smith Njigba with 10 catches for 128 yards receiving and 2 scores in the loss. The Bolts just have bad luck to start the season. Jim Harbaugh can’t afford to go 0-4. That would seriously ruin their playoff chances down the road. If they can get out front and keep the crowd out of the game, they have a chance for the upset. But with Darnold back at 100% percent, it will be tough for the Bolts to pull the upset.

Smooth’s Pick: Seattle (28-17)

Detroit at Carolina
Line: Lions by 2½

Detroit was looking at a possible upset loss against the Jets last Sunday, but it was the heroics of Chuck Clark who sacked Geno Smith late in the game, to seal the victory for the Lions. Jared Goff with 168 yards passing and 2 TDs in the win. Jamyir Gibbs almost reaching the century mark in rushing. He also had two TD in the win. The pride heads to Charlotte to take on the Panthers. Carolina had two chances in the final two minutes at a drive to tie or take the lead. But the Browns’ defense got the job done to ensure victory in Cleveland’s home opener. Bryce Young with 291 yards passing, and a TD. He also was sacked 3 times and gave up an INT in the loss. This will be the first Sunday night prime time game for the Panthers in quite some time. This is a chance to showcase Young’s talents. However, there’s also a risk of embarrassment after their defense was torched during week 1. The Lions offense is certainly capable of doing that, but with the Lions unpredictability the last three weeks, its anyone guess which Detroit team will show up. Never the less I do think the Lions get it done, but they’ll have to work for it.

Smooth’s Pick: Detroit (22-18)

Monday, October 5

Atlanta at New Orleans
Line: Saints by 3

Michael Penix Jr. was just what the doctor ordered for the dirty birds, as they put together an offensive slaughter on Green Bay. He hooked up Drake London 9 times for 194 yards, including a 68-yard strike. Bijian Robinson with 194 yards rushing, 211 total and 2 TDs in the victory. They head to the big easy for a NFC South division matchup with the Saints. The Saints looked like they were going to grab a pretty convincing win on Sunday, thanks to a career day from quarterback Tyler Shough. He threw four touchdowns on the day. But it all went south, as Raiders defense got to Shough and forced a fumble, which led to a go-ahead lead and the victory for Las Vegas. Final numbers for Shough, 29-42 for 255 yards and those 4 scores. The Saints continue to play competitive football, and they could easily be 3-0 right now. They will have their hands full against a Dirty Birds offense that finally woke up last Thursday. The extra couple of days rest will help Atlanta. But I think the Saints are primed for a victory, which would be sweet against a divisional opponent.

Smooth’s Pick: New Orleans (26-21)

And that’s Smooth’s NFL Football Picks. We’ll see you later!

Smooth’s NFL Football Picks 2026 – Week 3 (A Devastating Diagnosis for Giants QB Jaxson Dart)

Week 3 – A number of big upsets last week, we had a brutal finish beating the spread on many games we selected, and big new concerning the future of one of the NY Giants biggest stars. Let’s see how we did.

Last Week’s Results

Head-to-Head: 9-7
Against the Spread: 5-7-4

Season to Date

Head-to-Head: 22-10
Against the Spread: 15-10-7

Thursday, September 24

Atlanta at Green Bay
Line: Packers by 7½

The dirty birds laid a rotten egg in their home opener on Sunday. Cooper Rush in his second start at QB went 10-for-17 for only 86 yards passing and two INTs in the 36-3 shellacking by road favorite, Carolina. They head north to Lambeau Field, where the Packers made a big comeback, down by 10 in the 4th quarter against the Jets. They get a TD pass from Jordan Love to Christian Watson, then two FGs from Trey Smack, including the game winner in OT, 20-17 was the final, and they get their first win of the season. Not a good start for Kevin Stefanski as head coach. Much of that goes to both of his top QBs being down. Tua Tagovailoa could return this Thursday, but on a short week that might be wishful thinking. This is a good chance for the Pack to get some momentum on a weaker opponent.

Smooth’s Pick: Green Bay (26-14)

Sunday, September 27

Tennessee at NY Giants
Line: Giants by 2½

The G-Men got some very bad news. They lose Jaxson Dart for the rest of the season. He suffered a knee injury in Monday night’s matchup against the Rams. After an MRI, that doctors found the condition was worse than expected. His ACL is intact, but will need to repair the meniscus, which will require surgery. Giants officials are saying with rehab, Dart should will be ready for the 2027 season. For now, the starting job goes to backup Jameis Winston. He did not fare well at all on Monday night, throwing for 119 yards and INT. The Rams sent the G-Men back down to earth with a 28-6 loss. They return home to host a couple of former NY head coaches that used to call the Meadowlands home, former Jets and current Titans head coach Robert Saleh and former Giants head coach Brian Daboll who now runs Tennessee’s offense. The Titans nearly pulled off the upset against Philadelphia on Sunday, but they suffered a heartbreaking 24-20 loss with 9 seconds to go in regulation. Cam Ward with two rushing TDs in the loss. This is a winnable game for the G-Men, even without Jaxson Dart. The Titans defense isn’t as dynamic as the Rams, but they’re still capable of surprising teams. If Winston can rebound from that horrible Monday night performance, they can definitely get back on track. This team has too many talented players to go down in flames, and coach John Harbaugh has a plan ready for Sunday and beyond.

Smooth’s Pick: NY Giants (24-16)

LA Chargers at Buffalo
Line: Bills by 7½

Should Jim Harbaugh be concerned in Tinseltown? Maybe he should, as his Bolts drop their second straight, this time, an upset loss to Las Vegas. The defense gives up two big TDs in the 2nd half, and lose it, 26-14. The Bolts head to Western New York to take on the high-flying Bills, who are playing hot at 2-0 to start the season. They got off to a 21-0 lead on Detroit, and didn’t look back. 41-31 was the final. Josh Allen is already making his claim for NFL MVP honors with 5 TDs on Thursday night; he has 9 on the season already. James Cook with 139 yards on the ground and a score in the victory. The only concern for the Bills is the defense; they gave up 30+ points in two games. If Justin Herbert find time, the Bolts may get 30+ for the third straight week. However, with Josh Allen continuing his hot hand, I like the Bills to make three straight wins in a row.

Smooth’s Pick: Buffalo (38-24)

Carolina at Cleveland
Line: Panthers by 2½

The Panthers were favorites on the road for the first time in 5 years, and they made it work. The defense tightened up after giving up 59 points the week before, and Bryce Young threw for 3 TDs in the win over Atlanta. The head to Cleveland, where the Browns pull off a win after heavy rains in Tampa led to 2-hr weather delay. Afterwards, Deshaun Watson threw for two TD passes in the 23-19 upset victory over the Bucs. The Panthers are road favorites again, but this time the spread isn’t as much, which indicates a more competitive game. Still, I like the Panthers to come out on top.

Smooth’s Pick: Carolina (21-18)

NY Jets at Detroit
Line: Lions by 6½

They were 11 minutes away from a 2-0 start, their first since 2015. Instead, a fourth-quarter collapse and an OT loss is all the Jets have to show for it. Even worse, they will be without WR Arian Smith for the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Gang Green heads to the motor city to take on the Lions, who have to be concerned about the state of their team. 446 yards in total offense given up by the defense in that loss to Buffalo on Thursday night. Jared Goff did throw for 324 yards and 4 TDs, but he turned over the ball twice. Amon-Ra St. Brown with 9 catches. 142 yards receiving and two TDs in the losing effort. The Lions could easily be at 0-2 on the season, and a lot of those problems goes to the defense. After two solid efforts, Gang Green is beginning to come together as a team. They’ll need to somehow find a way to stop Jared Goff and company from scoring points. Tough to accomplish playing in a dome on the road.

Smooth’s Pick: Detroit (27-16)

Houston at Indianapolis
Line: Texans by 2½

CJ Stroud threw for 364 yards passing on Sunday. Unfortunately, none of his passes made the end zone. In fact, the Texans only accounted for two FG’s, as they were outplayed by Cincinnati, 20-6 was the final. They head to Indianapolis to take on the Colts, who gave Kansas City everything they had, and then some on Sunday night. Jonathan Taylor with two TD runs, Daniel Jones would find Lawrence Treadwell for 48 yards to keep the drive alive. It would all go down to the final play in OT, where the Chiefs escape with a 33-30 win. At 0-2, the Texans need to come together and get a win. This is even more important because it’s a divisional opponent. This will be a tough battle between the two, but they way the Colts played against KC, I like them to keep the momentum going.

This is my upset special!
Smooth’s Pick: Indianapolis (23-19)

Kansas City at Miami
Line: Chiefs by 11½

Patrick Mahomes with 382 yards passing and three TDs, one to his favorite target Travis Kelce, who caught 9 passes for 101 yards receiving on the night. The Chiefs win it on a Harrison Butker FG with only a second to go in the OT period to win it for KC. They head to South Florida to take on the Fish. They couldn’t get any kind of offense going against San Francisco. A Malik Willis pass to Ryan Miller for a 77-yard TD was much too late. They get pummeled, 35-13. This is slowly turning into an ugly situation for the Fish, and with the Chiefs coming to town, it’s not getting any easier. Somehow, they need to stop the KC offense and keep the score low. But with Mahomes back to his old self, I’d say it’s gonna be a long day in South Florida.

This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick: Kansas City (37-14)

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Line: Bengals by 3½

Joe Burrow and the stagnant Bengals offense finally came to life after six straight ineffective quarters. He overcame being sacked 5 times to finish the game with 2 TD passes in the win against Houston. They head to the Steel city to take on Pittsburgh. Aaron Rodgers struggled to get the offense going. He fumbled deep in Steelers territory, and gave up the score. They can only account for a FG, as they lose to New England, 20-3. With both teams at .500, a win this Sunday will be very lucrative in the AFC North. I see a hard-fought battle between the two teams, and it will all come down to special teams.

Smooth’s Pick: Cincinnati (19-17)

Seattle at Washington
Line: Seahawks by 6½

Jaxon Smith-Njigba with an 82-yard TD run on the 2nd play of the game. That was only the beginning of the pounding Arizona would receive against their NFC West rivals. JSN would end the day with 9 catches for 155 yards receiving and 3 TDs. 31-7, Seahawks was the final. They head to the nation’s capital to take on the Commanders, who got bad news on their star QB Jayden Daniels. He left the game against Dallas with a dislocated elbow, and injury so severe Fox Sports analyst Tom Brady yelled an expletive live on air. He quickly apologized, but Washington could not recover from his departure. They lose it, 37-20. Stephan Diggs with 2 TDs in the losing effort. Marcus Mariotta gets the call at QB for the Commanders. His experience helps them in backup situations. There’s a chance we may see the return of Sam Darnold, who’s been out of action with a hip injury. The Seahawks have been fine with Drew Lock as backup. It will all come down to defense, and the Seahawks have the best in the league.

Smooth’s Pick: Seattle (26-12)

New England at Jacksonville
Line: Jags by 2½

TreyVon Henderson with a TD, and a late turnover by Aaron Rodgers falls into the hands of Elijah Ponder who returns the ball 19 yards for the score to seal the Patriots victory over Pittsburgh. They head to North Florida, where the Jags offense hit a speed bump after scoring 30+ points the week before. Only 189 yards passing for Trevor Lawrence. He also threw a pick as Jacksonville loses to Denver, 20-13. These two teams are at .500, as well. However, the Jags have a slightly better offense than the Patriots. Again, defense will be the deciding factor, and being at home, I like the Jags to come thru with a win.

Smooth’s Pick: Jacksonville (20-14)

Arizona at San Francisco
Line: 49ers by 8½

The Cardinals offense was stagnant against the Seattle defense, only 151 total yards. They were also outplayed on time of possession in the loss to the Seahawks. They head to Santa Clara, where Christian McCaffrey scored twice in the 49ers rout of the Dolphins, becoming just the third player in NFL history to score at least 50 touchdowns for multiple franchises. Brock Purdy was almost perfect, going 20 for 22 with 287 yards passing two TDs and a rushing score in the dominant victory over Miami. However, they’re beginning to experience the injury bug once again, as they lose WR Mike Evans and Demarcus Robinson for this Sunday. That means more reliance on McCaffrey. Unless the Cards can utilize more of the run game, and slow the game down, they could have a chance. But the Niners are still the heavy favorite at home.

Smooth’s Pick: San Francisco (24-17)

Minnesota at Tampa Bay
Line: Vikings by 1½

Led by coordinator Brian Flores, the Vikings defense was on full display, neutralizing a Chicago offense that scored 50+ points the week before. Three FGs by Will Reichard was all Minnesota needed to win, 9-3 was the final. They head to Tampa, where there are some NFL critics saying Bucs head coach Todd Bolles will be the first to be fired during the season. After last week’s ugly loss to Cleveland, that may well happen. They fall to 0-2 after an ugly loss to Cleveland. Baker Mayfield with a TD and an INT in the losing cause. I’m afraid Mayfield will experience more pressure with the Vikings defense, and with Kyler Murray making his return after two weeks out of action, they may get more offensive power than they had the week before.

Smooth’s Pick: Minnesota (21-19)

Baltimore vs. Dallas
Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
Line: Ravens by 2½

This will be the third NFL game played in Brazil, and the second international of the season, they’ll also make stops in London, Munich, Mexico City and two new venues in Madrid and Paris. As for the two teams, the Ravens suffered a late game collapse on Sunday. Up 17-9 in the fourth quarter, their defense gave up 15 points, and they fall to New Orleans, 24-17. Lamar Jackson threw for a TD, Derick Henry also found the end zone in the loss. They head to Dallas, where Dax Prescott with 279 yards passing and 4 TDs, he becomes the franchise’s all-time leader in passing TDs in the win over Washington. CeeDee Lamb with 8 catches for 153 yards and 2 of those TDs from Prescott. This is pretty much a neutral site matchup, and both teams are evenly matched. However, I give the edge to the Ravens, as the Cowboys defense got a break with the Washington victory last Sunday. Look for Henry to run roughshod over the defense.

Smooth’s Pick: Baltimore (33-24)

Las Vegas at New Orleans
Line: Saints by 3½

Kirk Cousins threw for three TDs, two of those scores were to Cody White, and the Silver and Black climb to 2-0 on the season in their win over division rival, the Chargers. Tre Tucker with 5 catches for 119 yards and a score in the win. They head to the big easy to take on the Saints. New Orleans scored 15 unanswered points in the game’s final quarter, Tyler Shough threw a 21-yard touchdown to Chris Olave and then scored a rushing touchdown with :90 seconds left to put the Saints ahead for good for the upset win over Baltimore. Both of these teams have been a surprise this early in the season, and they may just continue the momentum. His could be a very exciting matchup that could come down to the game’s final play. I like the home team to sneak out with a win.

Smooth’s Pick: New Orleans (23-16)

LA Rams at Denver
Line: Rams by 2½

The Giants young and depleted secondary just was no match for the Rams receivers. Davonte Adams tore up the cornerbacks for 195 yards and two TDs. LA gets their 1st win of the season and climb to .500. They head to the mile high city to take on Denver. After a rough outing last Monday night, the Broncos offense came back to life. Bo Nix with 288 yards passing and a TD, as they beat Jacksonville. Jaylen Waddle with his first 100+ yard game for Denver. Both teams bounced back from humiliating losses during week one with convincing victories, which should make for a very exciting Sunday night matchup. If the Broncos defense can catch the Rams offense in a slow start, it could catch LA off guard. However, I like Matthew Stafford and company to overcome the road pressure get a second win of the season.

Smooth’s Pick: LA Rams (27-21)

Monday, September 28

Philadelphia at Chicago
Line: Eagles by 4½

For two games in a row, Philly almost lost. Last Sunday, they avoided disaster when Jalen Hurts found Darius Cooper in the end zone with only seconds left to beat Tennessee. Hurts with 264 yards passing and 2 TDs, but he also was picked off twice in the win. They head to the windy city, where Bears fans were given a huge let down. Not only did they lose the game to Minnesota, not only could they not get a sustained offense going, but they also lost Caleb Williams to a hamstring injury. Right now, his status is week-to-week, and that could be disastrous. Williams is listed as doubtful for Monday night. Tyson Bagent would get the start if he doesn’t go. That would mean more of a run game against Philly. The Eagles defensive front is capable of making it a very tough to get points. Having said that, I think Hurts and company can fly out of the windy city with a narrow win.

Smooth’s Pick: Philadelphia (17-10)

Smooth’s NFL Football Picks 2026 – Week 2 (Put It In The Books!)

The NFL is in full swing with the completion of the first week of 2026 season. A few upsets, took place. Let’s take a look at how we did.

Last Week’s Results

Head-to-Head: 13-3
Against the Spread: 10-3-3

Now, here’s our picks for week 2.

Thursday, September 17

Detroit at Buffalo
Line: Bills by 3½

The Lions were our guaranteed lock to win against New Orleans. But they damn sure almost blew it in overtime. After a TD pass, the Detroit defense came up big, breaking up a two-point conversion, and sealing a 31-30 win over the Saints. They head to Western New York, where the Bills will formerly christen their brand-new Highmark Stadium into action on Thursday night. Last Sunday in Houston, the Buffalo defense came up big despite giving up a lot a points, and Josh Allen drove the offense 96 yards in just over 90 seconds for the score, escaping with a 36-31 win. Giving up that many points to a lesser team like New Orleans should be a big concern, especially having to go against a high-powered offense like the Bills. They need to tighten up their run defense if they have any chance to win. Buffalo also needs to shore up their defense, as well. They gave up a ton of yards to Houston on the road. On a short week, I like the Bills to keep their luck going and take out the visiting Lions.

Smooth’s Pick: Buffalo (26-21)

Sunday, September 20

Carolina at Atlanta
Line: Falcons by 1½

The Panthers defense folded like a deck of cards, giving up 552 total yards to Chicago. They were pummeled, 59-37 at home. Despite the loss Bryce Young did throw for 331 yards passing and three TDs. They head to the ATL where the Falcons were forced to call 3rd string QB Cooper Rush into action after starter Tua Tagovailoa was injured, and backup Michael Penix, Jr. was inactive. He threw for two INTs in the 20-13 loss to Pittsburgh. Bijan Robinson with a TD and 173 total yards in the loss. In this early NFC South matchup, both teams can’t afford to lose ground, when the division title may depend on the better record. I can’t see the Panthers giving up that many points for the second week in a row, especially with the offense problems the dirty birds are having. My feeing is this will be a low scoring affair, with the home team sneaking out with a win.

Smooth’s Pick: Atlanta (17-14)

Minnesota at Chicago
Line: Bears by 5½

Kyler Murray was knocked out of the game against Green Bay, giving Carson Wentz another chance to prove his worth in the NFL. After being down by 12 in the 3rd quarter he would throw two of his three TD passes to seal the win over Green Bay, 39-22 was the final. The Vikings head to the windy city to take on the Bears, who piled on 59 points on Carolina. That’s the first time they scored over 50 points since 2012. Much of that firepower was on the ground with D’Andre Swift getting 124 yards rushing and 3 TD’s, Kyle Monongai with a 61-yard TD run putting him over the century mark in rushing for the day. Caleb Willams also with 4 TDs (2 passing, 2 rushing). The Bears offense will be tested against a much better defense in the Vikings. The only issue will be whether Wentz will be able to gather the same effort on the road this Sunday. In this divisional matchup, anything’s possible.

Smooth’s Pick: Chicago (21-17)

Philadelphia at Tennessee
Line: Eagles by 6½

Philly got off to an early lead on Washington with a couple of Jalen Hurts TD passes to Dallas Goedert and Dontaviyon Wicks. But in the 2nd half, the offense sputtered. They finally came alive late 4th quarter when Hurts found Goedert in the end zone for the 2nd time in the game. The defense prevented a two-point conversion, and that sealed a 24-22 win over the Commanders. The Eagles head to Nashville, where Robert Saleh’s debut at Titans head coach was a downer. Cam Ward struggled against the Jets defense, getting sacked three times in the 23-10 loss. Rumblings are beginning to show about Ward’s ability to lead this team after the poor showing last Sunday. It doesn’t get any easier with a tough defense from Philly coming to town. Their only hope is if the Eagles offense will slow down like they did in the 2nd half of their game against Washington. Can’t see that happening, though.

Smooth’s Pick: Philadelphia (27-13)

Pittsburgh at New England
Line: Patriots by 5½

TJ Watt became only the second player in NFL history to record at least 10 interceptions and at least 100 sacks in his career. He joins Hall-of-Famer Julius Peppers in that category. The one INT he had last Sunday was returned for a pick-six in the Steelers win over Atlanta. Aaron Rodgers with a TD on 221 yards passing in the victory, the first for Mike McCarthy as Pittsburgh head coach. The Steelers head to Foxborough, where the Patriots held off Seattle’s offense for much of the game. But it was three INTs by Drake Maye including one in the end zone with time running down in the 4th quarter that made the difference, 13-10 Seahawks was the final. They also get bad news, as newly acquired WR AJ Brown suffered a high ankle sprain in the loss. He’ll be out for at least four weeks, which could mean trouble for their pass offense. They’ll have to depend more on the run game, but against a Steelers defense that had been stingy last Sunday, points could be hard to come by. Either way, I like the Patriots, but not the points.

Smooth’s Pick: New England (22-20)

Green Bay at NY Jets
Line: Packers by 3½

Jordan Love found Christian Watson in the end zone twice in their game against Minnesota. They had a 22-10 lead in the 3rd quarter, but the defense couldn’t stop the Vikings and their offense. They also had a few miscues, including a turnover deep in their own territory. The Pack heads to the Meadowlands, where Jets head coach Aaron Glenn gets a much-needed win over Tennessee to get the season started. Gang Green scored on its very first drive of the game, as they picked up 367 total yards in the victory, which is a very positive start of the year. The pressure is all on the Pack after that opening season loss. Another loss could put them in trouble at 0-2. Unless their offense can regroup against a similar defensive scheme, it could be a long day for them. I still see the Pack bouncing back from that loss, but it won’t be easy.

Smooth’s Pick: Green Bay (19-16)

Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Line: Bucs by 9½

Dashaun Watson’s INT on the first drive of the game set the tone all day long. He was also sacked five times and gave up a fumble, as the Browns were pummeled by Jacksonville, 34-10. They head to Tampa to take on the Bucs, where rookie Josiah Trotter, the son of former Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Jeremiah Trotter had a big day in his NFL debut. He had a sack and pick-6, but unfortunately, the Bucs got outplayed by Cincinnati offensively, 33-27 was the final. Baker Mayfield was sacked 4 times in the loss. Luck for them, the Browns head to town with a lot of issues, on both sides of the field. If Mayfield can find time with his receivers, it should be a productive day.

This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick: Tampa Bay (31-14)

New Orleans at Baltimore
Line: Ravens by 9½

Tyler Shough had a big 2nd half for New Orleans against Detroit. He led a 21-point comeback and ended the game with 410 yards passing, and 3 TDs. But it was a 2-point attempt that failed on the final play in OT that made the difference in the loss. They head to the Baltimore, where Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry left off where they started with big numbers in the 41-23 win over Indianapolis. Jackson with 324 yards, a passing and a rushing score, Henry with 144 yards rushing and 3 TDs in the win. This is gonna be another big challenge for a young team like the Saints, but with a team as experienced like the Ravens, a comeback could be next to impossible. Look for the duo of Jackson and Henry for another big set of numbers.

Smooth’s Pick: Baltimore (37-20)

Cincinnati at Houston
Line: Texans by 2½

Joe Burrow with 254 yards passing and a TD, and the Bengals defense recovered three straight fumbles against Tampa Bay in the win. They head to Houston, where newly acquired RB David Montgomery scored three TDs against Buffalo, and held Josh Allen in check for most of the game. But the defense could not hold late, as they drop their home opener to the Bills. The Bengals defense will be tested with a highly mobile QB like CJ Stroud, and Burrow will be under the gun with the Texans defense. In the end, I like the home team to eek out a win courtesy of special teams.

Smooth’s Pick: Houston (20-17)

Jacksonville at Denver
Line: Broncos by 2½

Trevor Lawrence starts the season with 4 TD passes, and Josh Hines-Allen & Travon Walker each shared a sack in the Jags dominating win over Cleveland. Jacksonville heads to the mile high city to take on the Broncos, who started their season with a dud against AFC West rival, Kansas City on Monday night. All kinds of issues with turnovers and stopping the run. They lose it, 31-10. Not the way to start the season if you want to improve on that runner-up status in the AFC Championship game. The Jags won’t be a pushover with their defense, either. However, I think the Broncos can recover and play much better football. It will be hard fought, though.

Smooth’s Pick: Denver (23-21)

Las Vegas at LA Chargers
Line: Bolts by 6½

Kurt Cousins overcame two INTs to throw 3 TDs, Ashton Jeanty rushed for over 100 yards, he had 147 total and two receiving TDs, as the Raiders beat Miami, 27-13. DE Kwity Pane with 2 of the Silver and Black’s five sacks on the day. They head to So-Fi Stadium to take on the Bolts, who were stunned by Arizona. They fell behind early, and didn’t recover. 26-14, Cardinals with the upset victory. The Bolts’ run game was non-existent, only 81 yards rushing on the day, and they were caught off guard by a Cardinals team who played inspired football. Las Vegas is also an upstart team with nothing to lose. However, I think Jim Harbaugh will regroup and get his team ready for Sunday.

Smooth’s Pick: LA Chargers (26-14)

Washington at Dallas
Line: Cowboys by 3½

It was a slow start for Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. They didn’t get busy until the 2nd quarter with a Jackory Croskey-Merritt 1-yard TD run, but the extra point would be blocked. An unsportsmanlike penalty on Debow Samuel’s first TD for Washington prevented a 2-point attempt. The Commanders got close late with a TD pass to Antonio Williams, but a two-point attempt would fail, leading to a Washington loss. They head to the Metroplex to take on the Cowboys, who have a major problem on defense. Last year, they gave up a ton of yards and points to the opposition. They tried to fix that, bringing only 3 starters back from last year. But the result was the same issues, 166 yards given up on the ground. They lose to the Giants, 28-20. We’ll tell you how the G-Men pulled off the upset later in the broadcast. The Commanders nearly pulled off the upset against the Eagles by playing stingy on 3rd downs. Look for the same effort against the Cowboys this Sunday. However, Dax Prescott and company still has a strong enough offense to pull through. Now if only their patchwork defense can come together.

Smooth’s Pick: Dallas (24-21)

Seattle at Arizona
Line: Seahawks by 4½

Getting back to the week one season opener between the Seahawks and the Patriots. Sam Darnold was hurt on the fifth play of the game. He was replaced by backup Drew Lock. He hooked up with Jaxson Smith-Njigba for a 45-yard TD pass in the 4th quarter, and the defense set the tone the rest of the way with three INT’s including one on the Patriots final drive with time running down to seal the win. They head to the desert to face rival, Arizona. Last Sunday, Trey McBride with 9 catches and a TD reception, Jeremiyah Love with his first NFL TD in the Cardinals’ upset victory over the Chargers. Mike LeFleur used his skills as the Rams defensive coordinator to give his team the necessary tools win his first NFL game as Cardinals head coach. He’ll need to somehow get his offense to respond against one of the toughest defenses in the league. They got a break with Darnold being out at QB for this game. They’ll need to keep the score low for any chance to win. However, I like the defending Super Bowl champs to steal the win.

Smooth’s Pick: Seattle (19-14)

Miami at San Francisco
Line: 49ers by 13½

Tough day for new Dolphins starting QB Malik Willis, as he was sacked five times. He also threw an INT in the loss against Las Vegas. The Fish head west to Santa Clara, California to take on the 49ers, who took a full week in Australia to get accustomed to their surroundings. It was the right decision, as they dominated their NFC West rivals. Brock Purdy with 3 TD passes as San Fran beats the Rams, 27-7. A solid start for a team that was riddled with injuries last season. They’re coming home to face a Miami team that is struggling to find it’s footing with new coaching and a new QB. The Fish’s only chance at an improbable upset is to utilize their only real weapon. DeVon Achane at RB. Keep the score low and hope for the best on defense. Unfortunately, there’s a reason that point spread is so high.

Smooth’s Pick: San Francisco (38-17)

Indianapolis at Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 7

Jonathan Taylor with two rushing TDs and 121 total yards in the losing effort by the Colts against Baltimore. Daniel Jones with a TD pass and an INT. He was also sacked twice. Indy heads to KC, where free agent acquisition Keneth Walker III had a big night against Denver on Monday night, 173 rushing yards with a TD in the Chiefs victory. Patrick Mahomes with 184 yards and two TDs in his return from injury. It’s safe to say that the Chiefs are back, especially with the way they handled their division rivals. The Colts have some work to do on Sunday night, and I don’t think they’re going to be very successful at it.

Smooth’s Pick: Kansas City (30-14)

Monday, September 21

NY Giants at LA Rams
Line: Rams by 7½

Head coach John Harbaugh made some big changes in the Giants preparation for game day, and on Sunday night, they looked focused and ready to go. The G-Men took control of the game from the opening kickoff to the final whistle. Jaxson Dart with 3 TD passes, two of those to TE Isaiah Likely, which was a career high for him. Cam Skattebo was a bull in the run game, picking up 4.5 yards per carry and a TD in the win over Dallas. Big Blue heads to LA to take on the Rams on Monday night. The Rams decided to take a flight to Melbourne, Australia the day before the game and arrive for kickoff on pacific coast time, similar to what they did with their other overseas game. I think the 18 hours may have been too much, as LA came out flat on both sides of the ball against the 49ers. They were without Aaron Donald, who missed the flight for health reasons, and now they’ll be without Myles Garrett, who will have to have surgery on his knee. He suffered the injury in the game last Thursday. With their two big defensive weapons out, this is a chance for the G-Men to take an even bigger plunge. The Giants don’t play very well on Monday night, but that could change. We’ll see if last Sunday’s win was for real. I say, they are!

This is my upset special!
Smooth’s Pick: NY Giants (27-23)

And that’s Smooth’s NFL Football Picks for week 2. We’ll see you later!

Smooth’s NFL Football Picks 2026 – Week 1 (Let’s Get This Party Started!)

It’s finally here! I’ve been waiting 7 months for kickoff to happen. This week, the NFL goes to the land down under for the first time in history. Let’s get this party started.

Wednesday, September 9

New England at Seattle
Line: Seahawks by 5½

Seven months ago, the Seahawks won their second Vince Lombardi trophy at the expense of the New England Patriots, and on this night, they get to raise the championship banner. All of it takes place with the team they beat looking on. This rematch won’t necessarily be close, with Seattle handling one of the best defensive units in the NFL. Last year, Seattle’s defense ranked first in preventing teams from getting into the endzone. They were also third in rushing defense, and was top 10 in total defense. It’s truly a nightmare draw to open the season for New England. Sam Darnold and JSN will do enough on the other side of the ball to cover the spread. Don’t overthink this one.

Smooth’s Pick: Seattle (28-17)

Thursday, September 10

San Francisco vs. LA Rams
From Melbourne, Australia
Line: Rams by 3½

This will be the NFL’s maiden voyage to the home of Crocodile Dundee and Mad Max. The game will be played on a 100,000-seat stadium known for playing cricket. The facility was built way back in 1853, and has hosted the 1956 Summer Olympics. Australian Rules Football is also six teams that call the stadium home, and it’s also the home of the AFL Grand Final. As for the game itself, the Rams will have Aaron Donald back and will pair him with new acquisition Myles Garrett. That gives LA a distinct advantage on the defensive front. As for San Francisco, Brock Purdy returns with a different set of receivers. Injuries decimated their season last year. I expect a very close game, especially on a neutral site.

Smooth’s Pick: LA Rams (20-16)

Sunday, September 13

Tampa Bay at Cincinnati
Line: Bengals by 3½

Vegas is expecting big numbers from Joe Burrow this weekend, upwards to 300 yards against the Bucs defense. However, I’m curious on how Baker Mayfield does against that newfangled Bengals defense. Something tells me he may have some trouble against them.

Smooth’s Pick: Cincinnati (26-17)

New Orleans at Detroit
Line: Lions by 7½

The Saints didn’t have a great pre-season, having been shut out of one game 35-0. Let’s hope that wasn’t a sign of things to come for them. They’ll have to travel to the motor city against a tough Lions team. Unless the Saints come out of the gate quick, they’re not gonna last in this game. Either way, I like the Lions to win their opener at home.

This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick: Detroit (30-19)

NY Jets at Tennessee
Line: Titans by 2½

This is also a must game for Jets head coach Aaron Glenn. Sorry to say that with the first game of the season. But Gang Green needs to come out smoking. They’ll have to do that against what could be a much-improved Titans squad with Robert Saleh coaching with a chip on his shoulder. You can bet he wants this game badly. I say, he gets it.

Smooth’s Pick: Tennessee (20-12)

Baltimore at Indianapolis
Line: Ravens by 3½

Looking forward to seeing how Lamar Jackson will shape up with a new head coach and a few new receivers to throw to. The question will be how much in the tank does Derrick Henry have? Meanwhile, Daniel Jones returns and I’m curious on if his history of injury problems will hamper his production. This will be a tough matchup on both sides, But I think Jackson will sneak out with a win.

This is my upset special!
Smooth’s Pick: Baltimore (24-21)

Atlanta at Pittsburgh
Line: Steelers by 2½

New head coaches on both sides of the gridiron. Kevin Stefanski with the dirty birds, Mike McCarthy in the steel city. As of this recording, Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa are still duking it our for the starting QB position. Whoever wins, will have a tough go against Pittsburgh. Aaron Rodgers will look to re-kindle the magic with McCarthy that gave them a Super Bowl title in Green Bay. As for this game, I like the Steelers to take it, but it will be tough going.

Smooth’s Pick: Pittsburgh (23-19)

Chicago at Carolina
Line: Bears by 2½

The Bears look for an NFC North title for the second straight year in a row. Caleb Williams will have different receivers to target, and their defense has improved. They’ll get a test on the road against last year’s surprise team, the Panthers. Unfortunately, everyone won’t be surprised this time around. It will still be tough for the Bears to gather a victory.

Smooth’s Pick: Chicago (20-17)

Cleveland at Jacksonville
Line: Jags by 7½

Deshaun Watson was named the starting quarterback for week 1, and the only reason I could think of is that the Browns invested so much money in him that it would be a waste to have him on the bench. We’ll see if the two years away is a plus, or a minus. Meanwhile, the Jags look for their second straight division title. I like Trevor Lawrence to light up the scoreboard this weekend against a defense that has lost its best player.

Smooth’s Pick: Jacksonville (33-13)

Buffalo at Houston
Line: Bills by 1½

The Bills start with a new head coach and hope to get on the right footing. However, they have a tough game against the Texans in Houston. The last time these two teams faced each other, the Bills got smoked. However, I don’t think the Texans will have it easier this time around.

Smooth’s Pick: Buffalo (26-21)

Miami at Las Vegas
Line: Raiders by 3½

The Fish could be swimming in bitter waters this season. Malik Willis gets his chance to shine as the starting QB. However, he won’t have as many high-flying targets as before. Meanwhile, as expected, Kirk Cousins was named the Raiders starting QB. It’s almost certain that rookie Fernando Mendoza’s NFL debut will take place sometime this season. If the Silver and Black get blown out at home, that will definitely be the case. But I don’t see that happening.

Smooth’s Pick: Las Vegas (17-10)

Green Bay at Minnesota
Line: Packers by 1½

Rival week begins for both teams. The Packers are in survival mode for the first month of the season, missing DE Micah Parsons, and now likely playing without RB Josh Jacobs for the immediate future. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s offense gets a shot in the arm with Kyler Murray at QB. Being at home is a big plus. A loss, and one of these teams will be behind the 8-ball right off the bat.

Smooth’s Pick: Minnesota (22-18)

Washington at Philadelphia
Line: Eagles by 4½

I didn’t put Dan Quinn on the list of “coaches on the hot seat”. But maybe I should have. A slow start and he could possibly go. But I think a bounce back year is in order for the Commanders. They’ll have a tough task for their opener having to go to Philly. The Eagles look solid and it should be no surprise they’re the favorites to take the East. In this game, though I like Washington to at least give them some trouble.

Smooth’s Pick: Philadelphia (25-19)

Arizona at LA Chargers
Line: Bolts by 10½

This is the beginning of what could be a long season for long-suffering Cardinals fans. They’re already double-digit underdogs on the road against the Bolts. It’s unknown what to expect, but with the QB situation the way it is, look for lots of the run game all year long. Look for the Bolts to explode on the vulnerable secondary of the Cards.

Smooth’s Pick: LA Chargers (38-16)

Dallas at NY Giants
Line: Cowboys by 3½

This is the fourth time in five years these two teams have met for the season opener on either Sunday night or Monday night football. The Cowboys won all of their matchups against the G-Men, but this year is different. With John Harbaugh running the show, and some talented players on both sides of the ball, a win by Dallas is not guaranteed. Going on a limb, here.

Smooth’s Pick: NY Giants (27-24)

Monday, September 14

Denver at Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 2½

The big question for the final game of week one will be, what version of Patrick Mahomes will show up on Monday night. Will his past injury slow his mobility? Or will he be back to his old self again? Same question could be for Bo Nix. Will his production go down because of his injury. All these questions will be answered. Despite the changes on the field for the Chiefs, they’re still very much favored and with good reason.

Smooth’s Pick: Kansas City (24-19)

And that’s Smooth’s NFL Football Picks for week 1. Join me for week two on September 17 and we’ll find out how I did to start the season.

We’ll see you later!

Smooth’s NFL Football Picks EXTRA POINT: NY Giants Pre-season Outlook

Last season was a total disaster for the New York Football Giants. Another slow start with a tough schedule, and Brian Daboll was fired as head coach mid-season, something rarely done by Giants management. It didn’t get any better with his replacement, offensive coordinator Mike Kafka. He also had to deal with an injury plagued lineup. The team ended with a 3-14 record, and it was back to square one.

Finding a head coach was easy this time around, thanks to the Baltimore Ravens. They fired their long-time head coach John Harbaugh, who had another underachieving season with the club, and were knocked out of the playoffs on a last second missed field goal during the final game of the year. It didn’t take time for Harbaugh to find a new home, as co-owner John Mara was instrumental on grabbing him as quickly as possible.

The Harbaugh era begins for Big Blue with much anticipation, and for long-time fans like myself, it’s a welcome change. In the 100-year history, the G-Men have never hired a head coach that had previously won a Super Bowl or an NFL Championship. And so far, it looks like everyone on the team has hopped on to the new focus. Those players who weren’t on board, were jettisoned to other teams via trade, free agency or outright waivers.

Gone were DT Dexter Lawrence, who got tired of losing. It also didn’t help that his production on the field went south. He was traded to Cincinnati for a 1st round draft pick. LB Bobby Okeroke was a casualty of the salary cap. Also leaving via free agency were WR Wan’Dale Robinson and CB Cordale Flott. Both players joined former coach Daboll in Tennessee.

But there were significant adds, courtesy of coach Harbaugh. Four players followed him from Baltimore to the Giants, including TE Isaiah Likely, who is expected to make a big contribution to the offense. LB Tremaine Edmunds signed a three-year deal to anchor the defense, and WR Odell Beckham Jr. (shown above) returns to the team that made him a legend. Though he 10 years older, he still has something left in the tank, but he still has to make squad on a top-heavy receiver corp.

In late August, the G-Men signed RB Najee Harris to a one-year deal. He’s coming off a season ending Achillies injury for the Chargers. He gained over 1,000 yards in four seasons with Pittsburgh, and will fit in nicely with a stacked running back corp.

Big Blue had seven draft picks this season, and addressed needs on the O-line and at linebacker. Ohio State’s Arvell Reese (shown above) was selected 5th overall. He’s expected to make an immediate impact, and Miami’s Francis Mauigoa was selected 10th overall as part of the Dexter Lawrence trade. He comes in heavily touted and is expected to boost a much-needed O-line.

There are still a few questions marks, most notably the health’s of some key players. WR Malik Nabers is coming off a season ending torn ACL, and has been rehabbing in anticipation of a week 1 return. Just what kind of player will he be coming back. Cam Scattebo is also coming off a season ending foot injury along with LB Micah McFadden. As for QB Jaxson Dart (shown above), he received another concussion during the first pre-season game against Minnesota. He’s gone to the medical tent a number of times last season, we have to wonder if his style of play has to be adjusted?

Looking at the schedule, the G-Men have the 17th toughest schedule in the NFL. Four of their first six games are at home, with only the Rams and Texans coming off winning records in 2025. They face the NFC West and AFC South, plus single matches against the Browns, Saints, and Lions along with the standard NFC East home and home series.

They begin at home against the Cowboys on Sunday night, then in LA to take on the Rams. They’re back at home for two weeks against Tennessee and Arizona. Then in DC to take on Washington, and at home against New Orleans. Then it a matchup against Houston before they get a bye during week 7. 3-4 is wishful thinking, and it they can get an upset against one of the two, they could be in good shape.

After the bye, they get two games against NFC East opponent, in Phlly during week 9 and at home against Washington in week 10 on Thursday night. Jacksonville comes to town during week 11, then they take on Daniel Jones for the first time since releasing him two years ago in Indianapolis in week 12. The next two weeks will be tough, with games against San Francisco at home, and on the road against defending Super Bowl champion Seattle.

The rest of the season has Big Blue taking on Cleveland at home, then on the road twice against Detroit on Monday night, then Dallas, and then close out the season at home against Philadelphia.

I’m thinking 8-9 for a final regular season record could be a possibility. But there are so many factors taking place. The most important one is, how will this team respond to Harbaugh’s system? If the team gets off to a quick start, then we’ll have confidence come playoff time. I’m not expecting a quick fix, but I just want a competitive team that won’t embarrass us all season.

Let’s hit the ground running, and get this season started already!

Smooth’s NFL Football Pre-season Picks – 2026

After 6 long months of waiting, the 2026 NFL season has finally arrived. 32 teams have Super Bowl dreams in their heads, but only one will be able to hoist the Vince Lombardi trophy in February. Let’s take a look at our pre-season picks starting with the AFC.

AFC East – The New England Patriots surprised a lot of critics with a young team led by Mike Vrabel in his first season as head coach. With his track record as a three-time Super Bowl champ as a player, he motivated his team to almost winning another ring. But Seattle had other ideas. They’ll be hard pressed to repeat the task with virtually the same group, especially with a division that has made a number of personnel moves.

After a third straight year of being bounced out of the playoffs, the Buffalo Bills fired head coach Sean McDermott. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady takes over at the helm and looks to get Josh Allen and company more scoring power. They have most of their best players back, so they should be able to contend with New England for the top spot in the division.

The Miami Dolphins are also starting off fresh with a new head coach and a new QB. Jeff Hafley takes over for Mike McDaniel as head coach, and Malik Willis signed a three-year deal to become their starter at QB. The problem for the Fish is trying to come together on both sides of the ball. They lost a lot of key players, and it could be tough waters to swim through.

As for the Jets, head coach Aaron Glenn got the benefit of the doubt from team owner Woody Johnson after a rough first year as head coach. They bring back Geno Smith as their starting QB. They drafted him in the 2nd round back in 2013, and he struggled in his first go-round with the club, going 12-18. Gang Green is hoping to get the player that had success in Seattle to lead the way.

Sometimes it takes a change in leadership to get a team over the hump, and in the Bills case, a new coach and a new stadium, may be just what the doctor ordered.

Smooth’s Pick: Buffalo (12-5)

AFC North – The Pittsburgh Steelers begin the 2026 season by hiring only the four head coach in 56 years. Mike McCarthy re-teams with Aaron Rodgers, who won a Super Bowl with Green Bay back in 2008. But this Steelers team needs a lot of adjustments to get back to the playoffs.

The Baltimore Ravens also begin the season with a new head coach. Jesse Minter comes over from the Chargers to succeed longtime head coach John Harbaugh. He will have Lamar Jackson, who hopes to have an injury-free season.

The Cincinnati Bengals are also looking to a bounce-back season from their QB Joe Burrow. The last few years have been injury plagued. They did make a big splash at defensive tackle picking up Dexter Lawrence from the Giants, and that should shore up their front line to stop the run.

As for the Cleveland Browns, Todd Monken takes over as head coach, and he has a lot of work ahead of him. Most notably, who will be the starting QB. He has Shedeur Sanders who came on strong at the end of 2025, or he can go to veteran Dashaun Watson, who hasn’t played since 2024.

All four teams have a chance to win the division, but with the moves they made on defense, and a fully healthy QB, the Bengals could be looking at a bounce-back year.

Smooth’s Pick: Cincinnati (12-5)

AFC South – Liam Coen led the team to a 13–4 record and the AFC South division title in his 1st year as head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars. He will be hard pressed to equal the feat, or even improve the team’s stature this season. But with Trevor Lawrence and virtually the same lineup in place, the Jags are certain to be the favorites in 2026. However, the division has improved drastically, with each team making important moves in order to take the top spot.

The Tennessee Titans made a lot of moves that signaled they could be back to being competitive. Robert Saleh gets another shot at head coach and brings in former Giants skipper Brian Daboll to run the offense. They also signed WR Wan’Dale Robinson and DB Cordale Flott from the G-Men off of free agency.

The Houston Texans are coming off an injury-plagued season, as CJ Stroud had to miss three games due to a concussion. Despite missed time, the Texans still made the playoffs as a wild card and knocked off Pittsburgh in the wildcard before losing to New England in the divisional. This is an important year for Stroud, as the Texans need to get over the hump.

The Indianapolis Colts secured Daniel Jones as their starter at QB. He started the 2025 season strong, and it was looking like the Colts were going to breeze into the playoffs, but an injury to DJ and a poor showing down the stretch ended their playoff hopes. A health “Danny Dimes” is gonna be important for the Colts to contend.

The AFC South is another competitive division that could come down to the final few weeks of the season. I like the defense of the Texans to hold off the Jags to take the title.

Smooth’s Pick: Houston (10-7)

AFC West – Denver was poised to head to Super Bowl 60, but a broken ankle by QB Bo Nix during the Divisional playoff ended those hopes. A full recovery gives the Broncos a chance to get to the next level. Now that their free of that bad Russell Wilson contract, they pulled off a massive block-buster trade with Miami, acquiring star WR Jaylen Waddle. This will give the Broncos an even bigger presence in passing, and makes them the favorites to repeat as division champs.

However, the Chargers will still have something to say about that. They had a number of injuries to their offensive line, which prevented the team from improving. That was a top priority for head coach Jim Harbaugh. They aggressively overhauled the interior line and brought in a completely new stable of tight ends to anchor their physical, run-first scheme.

Losing Patrick Mahomes for the season due to a ruptured Achillies led to Kansas City having their worst finish since Andy Reid became head coach in 2011. That also led to a major reshuffling of their roster. They traded away All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie and completely overhauled the backfield by signing elite running back Kenneth Walker III. Mahomes will be hopefully be back by week 1, as well as TE Travis Kelce, but for how long and how effective will they be?

As for the Las Vegas Raiders, they’re back to square one with a new head coach, and a new hope for the future with No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza. Klint Kubiak will bring him along slowly, with Kirk Cousins starting at QB. The Silver and Black also went with defense with their other draft picks. DE Keyron Crawford and DB Jermod McCoy are expected to contribute. But overall, it’s gonna take a few years to get to respectability.

Injuries were a major part of the division’s storyline last season, and it’s expected to be a three-team race. Whoever has the least number of injuries will take the top spot. I like KC to make a return to the playoffs, but not as a division title holder.

Smooth’s Pick: Denver (11-6)

AFC Playoff Predictions

#1 Buffalo
#2 Cincinnati
#3 Denver
#4 Houston
Wildcard Teams: #5 New England, #6 Jacksonville, #7 Kansas City

Wildcard Weekend

Kansas City over Cincinnati
Denver over Jacksonville
Houston over New England

Divisional Round

Buffalo over Kansas City
Denver over Houston

AFC Championship

Buffalo over Denver

———————————————————————

NFC East – The Philadelphia Eagles are looking at returning to the Super Bowl after falling off the wagon in 2025. They made some changes, including the loss of WR AJ Brown via trade. Hollywood Brown will take over his key receiving slot. But the Eagles still have the right pieces in place with Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and a solid defense, and that should keep them in the top 5 spot in the Power Rankings. The rest of the division isn’t as stable.

The Dallas Cowboys are right on their heels despite missing the playoffs last season. They made some big deals in the off season, acquiring LB/DE Rashan Gary from Green Bay, signing veteran pass rusher Von Miller. They also secured WR George Pickens to a long-term deal. The big question mark now will be how many good years will they have with Dax Prescott under center?

Washington Commanders took a step back after a surprise appearance in NFC Championship game two seasons ago. Injuries played a big part in their downturn. Head coach Dan Quinn responded by making a complete overhaul of the roster, including signing Stefan Diggs to give young QB Jayden Daniels a highly revamped supporting cast.

As for the Giants, they’re starting off fresh with new management. New head coach John Harbaugh comes in to try to get the G-Men back to their winning ways. We’ll have more about their chances on a special edition of the NY Giants Pre-Season Outlook coming soon.

As I said before, this is a two-team race, between the Eagles and the Cowboys. With experience on their side, I think the Eagles will still come out on top.

Smooth’s Pick: Philadelphia (12-5)

NFC North – Once again, this division looks like a log jam between three of the four teams. Following an 11-6 campaign in 2025 under head coach Ben Johnson, the Chicago Bears navigated an active 2026 offseason defined by high-profile roster attrition, most notably trading away star wide receiver DJ Moore, and executing a series of calculated defensive line and secondary reinforcements. Despite the moves, they’re still the top NFC North contenders.

The Green Bay Packers, also had to make some radical decisions, as the team had a number of free agents at the end of last season. They let Rashan Gary walk, while using their cap flexibility to inject proven veteran talent into the defensive trenches and secondary. The moves still put them in contention with Chicago. However, the challenge will all depend on the health of QB Jordan Love.

Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions were left with question marks after another disappointing finish last season. The front office shook up the offense by orchestrating a player-for-player trade involving running back David Montgomery, while heavily focusing their salary cap assets on rebuilding the interior offensive line and defensive secondary. This will be an important season for head coach Dan Campbell, who up to this point hasn’t lived up to his Super Bowl expectations.

As for the Minnesota Vikings, they can only wonder if they made the right decision not signing Sam Darnold two years ago. JJ McCarthy was a disaster as his replacement at QB, and they were forced to sign free agent Kyler Murray to a one-year deal, and he looks like the starting QB during week 1. Jauan Jennings comes over from San Francisco to assist Justin Jefferson at WR.

Divisional matchups will be the key to taking the title. I think the Bears can still pull it off, but they’ll have one less win to make it happen.

Smooth’s Pick: Chicago (10-7)

NFC South – This is one of the weakest divisions in the NFL, and like last season a team with a below .500 could well win the division. Carolina pretty much won the NFC South thru attrition. Bryce Young finally blossomed into the #1 overall pick he was supposed to be. They did fall to the Rams in the Wildcard round, and looking ahead, they have a good chance to repeat. General manager Dan Morgan completely overhauled the defense via elite free-agent signings while reshuffling the quarterback room and offensive line depth.

Tampa Bay navigated a massive transition period defined by the heartbreaking departure of a franchise icon. Mike Evans, who set a franchise record for consecutive 1,000 yards receiving sign with San Francisco in the off season. Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin will split the passes thrown from Baker Mayfield. Head coach Todd Bowles heavily prioritized seasoned veteran physical playmakers to revamp their defensive depth chart.

Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank was not pleased with Raheem Morris’ work as head coach and dismissed him after the season concluded. Kevin Stefanski gets another shot at head coaching after a disastrous tenure in Cleveland. He’ll have a choice between Michael Penix Jr. and free agent signee Tua Tagovailoa at QB. Bijian Robinson signs a big extension, along with WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts.

As for the New Orleans Saints, they saw a little bit of life from QB Tyler Shough after he went 5-4 late in the season. However, the team faced severe financial constraints, and the front-office was forced to execute heavy roster cuts and rely almost entirely on budget-friendly, one-year deals and internal promotions to field a competitive depth chart. Despite the shortcomings, they could very well be a team that could surprise a lot of people.

For all four teams, they’ll likely be underdogs in most of their matchups outside the division. So, one team is going to have to take advantage and control the NFC South. Having said that, I like the Bucs to capture the title.

Smooth’s Pick: Tampa Bay (9-8)

NFC West -The Seattle Seahawks stunned NFL critics by putting together a strong defense and an offense that executed with the right personnel. Sam Darnold was the right QB at the right time, throwing career highs in passing yards and TDs. WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba also had a career year in receiving yards on their way to a Super Bowl championship. But a repeat isn’t certain, as they lose RB Kenneth Walker III to free agency.

The Rams made a huge splash in the off-season acquiring edge rusher Myles Garrett from Cleveland. They also picked up defensive backs Trent McDuffee and Jaylen Watson from the Kansas City Chiefs. Matthew Stafford also signed a one-year deal in what will likely be his final season in the NFL. They’ll be a strong contender to knock off the Super Bowl champs.

The San Francisco 49ers are coming off their worst season under head coach Kyle Shanahan. The good news is they didn’t have many players leaving as free agents. But they did bolster their receiving corps with the signing of WR Mike Evans. With Trent Williams and Dre Greenlaw secured with extensions, they were able to trade draft capital to fortify their interior defensive front. They look to return to the playoffs.

As for the Arizona Cardinals, they have a new coach with Mike Lefleur taking over. The Kyler Murray era is over, and with that, lots of uncertainty at QB. Jacoby Brissett will be the starter, with rookie Carson Beck as his 3rd string heir apparent. That means leaning more on the run game. They drafted Jeremiah Love as the 4th overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft. They also signed Tyler Allgeiger as a free agent. John Conner is coming off injury from last season, but if he’s anywhere near 100% percent his presence will be a positive. As for their defense, that’s another story.

Three of the four teams in this division have a chance for the post season, and they’re also Super Bowl contenders. However, there’s one team that made some important moves that put them one step ahead.

Smooth’s Pick: LA Rams (12-5)

Playoff Predictions

#1 LA Rams
#2 Philadelphia
#3 Chicago
#4 Tampa Bay
Wildcard Teams: #5 Seattle, #6 Green Bay, #7 San Francisco

Wildcard Weekend

Philadelphia over San Francisco
Chicago over Green Bay
Seattle over Tampa Bay

Divisional Round

LA Rams over Philadelphia
Seattle over Chicago

NFC Championship

LA Rams over Seattle

———————————————————————

LA Rams vs. Buffalo – I think the change was needed in Buffalo, as Sean McDermott was given plenty of chances, but failed to get the Bills over the hump. They have a favorable schedule this season, and a home AFC Championship game should send them to their first Super Bowl in more three decades. The Rams made some key moves during the off season, and they should be able to return to the Super Bowl. Their defense will be the key to their success, and if Aaron Donald decides to return for another ring, I can’t anyone beating them the last two months of the season .

Smooth’s Pick: LA Rams (34-13)

———————————————————————

And finally we want to give you three coaches that are on the “hot seat” this season

Zac Taylor, Cincinnati – His Bengals made some moves on defense, and we have them winning the division. But a slow start could put Taylor on the unemployment line.

Dan Campbell, Detroit – He’s come close three years in a row, but with a tough NFC North and an even tougher schedule, it’s Super Bowl or bust.

Aaron Glenn, NY Jets – We said he was given the benefit of the doubt by the team owner. But right now, the odds are against him. He needs to show progress in the first 5 games of the season, or it’s a pink slip
From Woody Johnson.

It’s gonna be a long season, and we can’t wait for week 1 to get started. We’ll see you late

Some of the NFL’s Best Post-Game Meltdowns in this video called, “You Play to Win the Game”

With the big story of Seattle Seahawks’ defensive back Richard Sherman making the headlines this week, I’d like to take a look back at some of the biggest post game meltdowns ever caught on video. I sure wish I could have created this video. Creative and funny!