
It’s finally here! I’ve been waiting 7 months for kickoff to happen. This week, the NFL goes to the land down under for the first time in history. Let’s get this party started.
Wednesday, September 9
New England at Seattle
Line: Seahawks by 5½
Seven months ago, the Seahawks won their second Vince Lombardi trophy at the expense of the New England Patriots, and on this night, they get to raise the championship banner. All of it takes place with the team they beat looking on. This rematch won’t necessarily be close, with Seattle handling one of the best defensive units in the NFL. Last year, Seattle’s defense ranked first in preventing teams from getting into the endzone. They were also third in rushing defense, and was top 10 in total defense. It’s truly a nightmare draw to open the season for New England. Sam Darnold and JSN will do enough on the other side of the ball to cover the spread. Don’t overthink this one.
Smooth’s Pick: Seattle (28-17)
Thursday, September 10

San Francisco vs. LA Rams
From Melbourne, Australia
Line: Rams by 3½
This will be the NFL’s maiden voyage to the home of Crocodile Dundee and Mad Max. The game will be played on a 100,000-seat stadium known for playing cricket. The facility was built way back in 1853, and has hosted the 1956 Summer Olympics. Australian Rules Football is also six teams that call the stadium home, and it’s also the home of the AFL Grand Final. As for the game itself, the Rams will have Aaron Donald back and will pair him with new acquisition Myles Garrett. That gives LA a distinct advantage on the defensive front. As for San Francisco, Brock Purdy returns with a different set of receivers. Injuries decimated their season last year. I expect a very close game, especially on a neutral site.
Smooth’s Pick: LA Rams (20-16)
Sunday, September 13
Tampa Bay at Cincinnati
Line: Bengals by 3½
Vegas is expecting big numbers from Joe Burrow this weekend, upwards to 300 yards against the Bucs defense. However, I’m curious on how Baker Mayfield does against that newfangled Bengals defense. Something tells me he may have some trouble against them.
Smooth’s Pick: Cincinnati (26-17)
New Orleans at Detroit
Line: Lions by 7½
The Saints didn’t have a great pre-season, having been shut out of one game 35-0. Let’s hope that wasn’t a sign of things to come for them. They’ll have to travel to the motor city against a tough Lions team. Unless the Saints come out of the gate quick, they’re not gonna last in this game. Either way, I like the Lions to win their opener at home.
This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick: Detroit (30-19)
NY Jets at Tennessee
Line: Titans by 2½
This is also a must game for Jets head coach Aaron Glenn. Sorry to say that with the first game of the season. But Gang Green needs to come out smoking. They’ll have to do that against what could be a much-improved Titans squad with Robert Saleh coaching with a chip on his shoulder. You can bet he wants this game badly. I say, he gets it.
Smooth’s Pick: Tennessee (20-12)
Baltimore at Indianapolis
Line: Ravens by 3½
Looking forward to seeing how Lamar Jackson will shape up with a new head coach and a few new receivers to throw to. The question will be how much in the tank does Derrick Henry have? Meanwhile, Daniel Jones returns and I’m curious on if his history of injury problems will hamper his production. This will be a tough matchup on both sides, But I think Jackson will sneak out with a win.
This is my upset special!
Smooth’s Pick: Baltimore (24-21)
Atlanta at Pittsburgh
Line: Steelers by 2½
New head coaches on both sides of the gridiron. Kevin Stefanski with the dirty birds, Mike McCarthy in the steel city. As of this recording, Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa are still duking it our for the starting QB position. Whoever wins, will have a tough go against Pittsburgh. Aaron Rodgers will look to re-kindle the magic with McCarthy that gave them a Super Bowl title in Green Bay. As for this game, I like the Steelers to take it, but it will be tough going.
Smooth’s Pick: Pittsburgh (23-19)
Chicago at Carolina
Line: Bears by 2½
The Bears look for an NFC North title for the second straight year in a row. Caleb Williams will have different receivers to target, and their defense has improved. They’ll get a test on the road against last year’s surprise team, the Panthers. Unfortunately, everyone won’t be surprised this time around. It will still be tough for the Bears to gather a victory.
Smooth’s Pick: Chicago (20-17)
Cleveland at Jacksonville
Line: Jags by 7½
Deshaun Watson was named the starting quarterback for week 1, and the only reason I could think of is that the Browns invested so much money in him that it would be a waste to have him on the bench. We’ll see if the two years away is a plus, or a minus. Meanwhile, the Jags look for their second straight division title. I like Trevor Lawrence to light up the scoreboard this weekend against a defense that has lost its best player.
Smooth’s Pick: Jacksonville (33-13)
Buffalo at Houston
Line: Bills by 1½
The Bills start with a new head coach and hope to get on the right footing. However, they have a tough game against the Texans in Houston. The last time these two teams faced each other, the Bills got smoked. However, I don’t think the Texans will have it easier this time around.
Smooth’s Pick: Buffalo (26-21)
Miami at Las Vegas
Line: Raiders by 3½
The Fish could be swimming in bitter waters this season. Malik Willis gets his chance to shine as the starting QB. However, he won’t have as many high-flying targets as before. Meanwhile, as expected, Kirk Cousins was named the Raiders starting QB. It’s almost certain that rookie Fernando Mendoza’s NFL debut will take place sometime this season. If the Silver and Black get blown out at home, that will definitely be the case. But I don’t see that happening.
Smooth’s Pick: Las Vegas (17-10)
Green Bay at Minnesota
Line: Packers by 1½
Rival week begins for both teams. The Packers are in survival mode for the first month of the season, missing DE Micah Parsons, and now likely playing without RB Josh Jacobs for the immediate future. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s offense gets a shot in the arm with Kyler Murray at QB. Being at home is a big plus. A loss, and one of these teams will be behind the 8-ball right off the bat.
Smooth’s Pick: Minnesota (22-18)
Washington at Philadelphia
Line: Eagles by 4½
I didn’t put Dan Quinn on the list of “coaches on the hot seat”. But maybe I should have. A slow start and he could possibly go. But I think a bounce back year is in order for the Commanders. They’ll have a tough task for their opener having to go to Philly. The Eagles look solid and it should be no surprise they’re the favorites to take the East. In this game, though I like Washington to at least give them some trouble.
Smooth’s Pick: Philadelphia (25-19)
Arizona at LA Chargers
Line: Bolts by 10½
This is the beginning of what could be a long season for long-suffering Cardinals fans. They’re already double-digit underdogs on the road against the Bolts. It’s unknown what to expect, but with the QB situation the way it is, look for lots of the run game all year long. Look for the Bolts to explode on the vulnerable secondary of the Cards.
Smooth’s Pick: LA Chargers (38-16)
Dallas at NY Giants
Line: Cowboys by 3½
This is the fourth time in five years these two teams have met for the season opener on either Sunday night or Monday night football. The Cowboys won all of their matchups against the G-Men, but this year is different. With John Harbaugh running the show, and some talented players on both sides of the ball, a win by Dallas is not guaranteed. Going on a limb, here.
Smooth’s Pick: NY Giants (27-24)
Monday, September 14
Denver at Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 2½
The big question for the final game of week one will be, what version of Patrick Mahomes will show up on Monday night. Will his past injury slow his mobility? Or will he be back to his old self again? Same question could be for Bo Nix. Will his production go down because of his injury. All these questions will be answered. Despite the changes on the field for the Chiefs, they’re still very much favored and with good reason.
Smooth’s Pick: Kansas City (24-19)
And that’s Smooth’s NFL Football Picks for week 1. Join me for week two on September 17 and we’ll find out how I did to start the season.
We’ll see you later!

















