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Smooth’s NFL Football Picks: Week 4 – Power Rankings

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Week 4 and the power rankings had a massive shift after a number of upsets last weekend. Miami’s stock rose along with Cleveland after their first victory. Minnesota’s stock plummeted after their disastrous showing at home. San Francisco’s stock has gone down because of a season ending injury to their star QB. Top three teams according to NFL.com are the Rams, the Chiefs and the Eagles. Bottom three teams are Raiders, the Niners and the Cardinals.

Last Week’s Results

Head to Head: 9-7
Against The Spread: 7-7-2

Season to Date

Head to Head: 28-18-2
Against The Spread: 21-18-9

All Odds Courtesy of Oddsshark.com

Bye Week Teams: Carolina, Washington

Thursday, September 27

Minnesota at LA Rams
Line: Rams by 6½

The Vikings were heavy favorites against Buffalo. But somehow the Bills managed to shock Minnesota to a huge upset. Not a good day for Vegas sports books if you had the sure thing. The Vikings travel to Tinseltown, where the Rams look to go 4-0 on the season.

Smooth’s Pick – LA Rams (31-14)

Sunday, September 30

Cincinnati at Atlanta
Line: Falcons by 6

The Bengals struggled against the Carolina defense allowing 2 sacks on Andy Dalton in the loss. Now they much travel to Atlanta, where the Falcons are still stinging off an overtime loss to New Orleans at home. Look for the Falcons to regroup.

Smooth’s Pick – Atlanta (34-21)

Tampa Bay at Chicago
Line: Bears by 3

The wheels fell off the Bucs against a desperate Pittsburgh team, though they did manage a comeback. Now a decision do they go with Ryan Fitzpatrick who has thrown for 400 yards in all three games or do they go with Jameis Winston coming off a three game suspension. Either way, the Bears defense is primed and ready

Smooth’s Pick – Chicago (17-9)

Detroit at Dallas
Line: Cowboys by 3

The Lions got a huge first win for their new coach, Matt Patricia against New England. Now they travel to the Metroplex, where the Cowboys have been inconsistent this early season. Look for the Lions to exploit their weakness.

This is my upset special!
Smooth’s Pick – Detroit (28-13)

Buffalo at Green Bay
Line: Packers by 10

Even though the Bills shocked Minnesota, they’re still a vulnerable team. They get a much more potent offense with the Packers, who look to bounce back from their loss to Washington last Sunday.

Smooth’s Pick – Green Bay (27-12)

Philadelphia at Tennessee
Line: Eagles by 3½

Another ugly win for the Eagles against Indianapolis. They travel to Nashville to take on a Titans team that found a way to win against a tough Jags defense without scoring a touchdown.

Smooth’s Pick – Philadelphia (19-13)

Houston at Indianapolis
Line: Colts by 1

The Texans were outplayed by the Giants last weekend. Now they need to somehow scratch off a victory in Indianapolis against the Colts, who just missed beating Philadelphia. This divisional rivalry will go a long way and each need the victory to keep pace with Jacksonville.

Smooth’s Pick – Indianapolis (24-21)

Miami at New England
Line: Patriots by 6½

The surprise undefeated leaders in the AFC East are the Dolphins. But this is their biggest task as they travel to Foxboro to take on the Patriots, who were manhandled in the motor city and are pissed off enough to take it out on the fish.

Smooth’s Pick – New England (36-14)

NY Jets at Jacksonville
Line: Jags by 7½

The Jags got a tough loss at home to Tennessee, bringing them back down to earth. As for the Jets, they looked weak against a Cleveland team that was hungry for a win. It doesn’t get any easier for Gang Green.

Smooth’s Pick – Jacksonville (19-16)

Cleveland at Oakland
Line: Raiders by 2½

Now that the Browns finally got their first win in two years, it’s time for them to build up momentum. They’ll have to do it in Oakland, where the Raiders need a victory for new head coach Jon Gruden. At 0-3, this could all go south quickly for the silver and black.

Smooth’s Pick – Oakland (21-13)

Seattle at Arizona
Line: Seahawks by 3

The Seahawks got in the win column with a victory over Dallas. They travel to the desert, where the Cardinals will go with Josh Rosen at QB over an ineffective Sam Bradford. It won’t make a difference.

This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick – Seattle (23-10)

New Orleans at NY Giants
Line: Saints by 3½

The Saints got a big win over Atlanta and moved into a three way tie in the NFC South. They travel to the Meadowlands to take on a heightened Big Blue squad who are coming off a solid victory over Houston. The Giants secondary will be key to winning in this one.

Smooth’s Pick – NY Giants (38-33)

San Francisco at LA Chargers
Line: Bolts by 10½

The Niners got the worst news possible, as they lose their starting QB Jimmy Garoppalo for the season with a torn ACL. The Bolts defense will be licking their chops at whoever is starting.

Smooth’s Pick – LA Chargers (36-12)

Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Line: Steelers by 3

The Steelers needed that win on Monday night in Tampa Bay. Because a loss means having to go into this weekend needing to beat a tough division rival in the Ravens. Even though their at home, this game still is tough.

Smooth’s Pick – Pittsburgh (27-24)

Monday, October 1

Kansas City at Denver
Line: Chiefs by 5

The Chiefs look good…real good! They lead the league in scoring with 118 points already this season. But now they have a challenge, as they go into the “Mile High” city. The Broncos lost their first of the season, but they still will give their division rival a tough go round.

Smooth’s Pick – Denver (26-21)

Now with all our picks, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. If you have a gambling problem, then please seek help by going to GamblersAnonymous.org.

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Smooth’a NFL Football Picks – Week 3

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Week 3 and there’s a log jam in the NFC East, a three way tie between Dallas, Washington and Philadelphia. Minnesota and Green Bay tied their way to the NFC North lead. Who would have thunk a back-up QB would lead Tampa Bay to the top in the NFC South. And the Rams are clearly dominant in the West. Another surprise in the AFC, Miami is on top in the East. Cincinnati and Jacksonville lead their divisions, while Denver and Kansas City are tied in the west at 2-0.

Let’s take a look at how we did last week.

Last Week’s Results

Head to Head: 9-6-1
Against the Spread: 6-6-4

Season to Date

Head to Head: 19-11-2
Against the Spread: 14-11-7

All odds courtesy of Oddsshark.com

Thursday, September 20

NY Jets at Cleveland
Line: Browns by 3

The Browns have come close to winning the last two games having to settle for a tie against Pittsburgh and a crushing loss in New Orleans last Sunday. Gang Green came down to earth at home verses Miami losing in a disappointing effort. Tough matchup goes to the home team and the end of futility.

Smooth’s Pick – Cleveland (26-14)

Sunday, September 23

New Orleans at Atlanta
Line: Falcons by 3

The Saints almost became the Browns victims of ending the winless streak. They travel on the road to take on the Dirty Birds. Atlanta outplayed the Panthers in their win. Now another division rival. Look for a high scoring affair.

Smooth’s Pick – Atlanta (37-31)

Green Bay at Washington
Line: Packers by 3

Green Bay blew their chance to win at home against Minnesota, but the Vikings were able to get a late score and get a tie. The Redskins were smoked by the Colts at home. Now they have to regroup for another big matchup. This game will depend on Aaron Rodgers status with his ailing knee.

Smooth’s Pick – Green Bay (27-21)

Indianapolis at Philadelphia
Line: Eagles by 6

As mentioned, the Colts surprised the Redskins for the win, which is great for a team trying to regroup. They head on the road to play Philly, who were stunned by Tampa Bay. Carson Wentz will get the start this weekend. The change in QB’s should be noticeable.

Smooth’s Pick – Philadelphia (26-20)

Buffalo at Minnesota
Line: Vikings by 16½

The Bills were horrible last weekend, so horrible that one of their players retired after the first half in their loss to the Bolts last weekend. The Vikings rallied to tie Green Bay in their matchup. This should be a cake walk for them.

This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick – Minnesota (34-12)

Oakland at Miami
Line: Dolphins by 3½

The Raiders missed out on a win on the road in Denver. They’ll have to travel longer with a visit to South Florida. The Dolphins with a big win in the Meadowlands verses the Jets. This should be a harder task for the fish.

Smooth’s Pick – Miami (13-12)

Denver at Baltimore
Line: Ravens by 5

The Broncos snuck out of the “mile high” city a clutch win over the Raiders. They’re looking at tough road trip to Baltimore where the Ravens are still stinging over their sloppy loss verses Cincinnati. This is a tough one for the Ravens to slip up on.

Smooth’s Pick – Baltimore (23-21)

Cincinnati at Carolina
Line: Panthers by 3

The Bengals are flying high at 2-0 and on top of the AFC North. They’ll have to travel Charlotte where the waterlogged city will be drying out from the hurricane. The Panthers come home after a rough loss to Atlanta. Give them the slight edge because of the defense.

Smooth’s Pick – Carolina (20-14)

NY Giants at Houston
Line: Texans by 6

The G-Men are clearly in rebuild mode, and it’s gonna take time for the O-line to jell. That being said, it’s gonna be a tough road trip to Texas and Houston’s formidable defense. The Texans are coming off a tough loss to Tennessee, and it will be interesting to see if they re-group. My guess it they do.

Smooth’s Pick – Houston (21-13)

Tennessee at Jacksonville
Line: Jags by 6½

This is a key divisional game. The Titans were winners verses Houston last weekend. They need to win to stay close to the division leaders to stay in contention. Even though it’s early in the season, every game counts.

Smooth’s Pick – Jacksonville (24-17)

San Francisco at Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 6

The Niners got themselves a big victory over Detroit in week 2. They head to Kansas City, where the Chiefs scored 6 TD’s in their big win over Pittsburgh. They head home where they are tough and the Niners are gonna have their hands full.

Smooth’s Pick – Kansas City (31-16)

LA Chargers at LA Rams
Line: Rams by 6½

The Bolts had a convincing win in Buffalo. Now they’ll take on the Rams in the first inter-city rivalry game in over 25 years. The Rams destroyed Arizona by a shutout. Something tells me this will be closer than expected. In fact…

This is my upset special!
Smooth’s Pick – LA Chargers (27-24)

Dallas at Seattle
Line: Seahawks by 3

The Cowboys eked out a victory over the Giants in Dallas. They go on the road to take on a bruised Seahawks team that seems to be regressing pretty quickly, as pointed out in their loss to Chicago on Monday night. This is a tough read.

Smooth’s Pick – Seattle (19-14)

Chicago at Arizona
Line: Bears by 4

All of the sudden, the Bears got hot with their defense with their win over Seattle, sacking Russell Wilson 4 times. They head to the desert, where the Cardinals are in a serious emergency. Both games they were atrocious and they need to find a way to win. It won’t happen this weekend.

Smooth’s Pick – Chicago (22-10)

New England at Detroit
Line: Patriots by 6½

This is the first time we’ve seen the Patriots look flat, losing to Jacksonville on the road. They should regroup in the “Motor City”, where they get a look at their former assistant coach, Matt Patricia, who is not having much luck after dropping the first two games.

Smooth’s Pick – New England (30-17)

Monday, September 24

Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay
Line: Steelers by 2½

It’s not looking good for the Steelers, having gone winless in their first two games, they travel to Tampa, where the Bucs actually looked good and are on top of the NFC South. However, this will be a tough task for the Bucs, and I think they’ll come back down to earth.

Smooth’s Pick – Pittsburgh (28-16)

Now with all our picks, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. If you have a gambling problem, then please seek help by going to GamblersAnonymous.org.

And that’s week three of Smooth’s NFL Football Picks. We’ll see you later!

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Smooth’s NFL Football Picks, Week 2 – Making Adjustments

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Week 2, and we access the opening week action of the NFL season. Who’s on top and who needs work. This week already has some adjustments and we should know much more about team challenges.

Let’s take a look at last week’s results.

Head-to-Head: 10-5-1
Against the Spread: 8-5-3

All odds courtesy of Oddsshark.com

Thursday, September 13

Baltimore at Cincinnati
Line: Bengals by 1

Ravens coming off a shellacking of the Bills last week. They take on a Bengals team that hammered the Colts in week 1. The points spread indicates close matchup and a challenge. Look for less of a scoring game.

Smooth’s Pick – Cincinnati (20-16)

Sunday, September 16

Carolina at Atlanta
Line: Falcons by 6

The dirty birds didn’t fare well against the Eagles to start the season on Thursday night. They get an extra couple of days off to take on a Panthers team who held on to win over the Cowboys, despite some injuries. This is a key divisional race which both teams can ill afford to lose.

Smooth’s Pick – Atlanta (24-19)

Cleveland at New Orleans
Line: Saints by 9

The Browns were able to do something they haven’t done in two years, and that’s lose a game. They didn’t win either as they tied the Steelers. They’ll have a tougher time in the Big Easy against a Saints team that lost despite scoring 40 points.

Smooth’s Pick – New Orleans (30-17)

Houston at Tennessee
Line: None

That’s because the Titans played the longest game in NFL history – seven hours and eight minutes, thanks to nearly four hours of lightning delays. They still lost to the Dolphins. They come home to host AFC South rival Houston, who played the Patriots hard but fell in the loss. This should be a good match up.

Smooth’s Pick – Tennessee (21-19)

Indianapolis at Washington
Line: Redskins by 5½

Washington picked apart a clearly unprepared Cardinals team last weekend. They’ll get a chance to go 2-0 against the Colts who came up short against the Bengals last Sunday. It will be Washington’s first 2-0 start since 2011 if they can win.

This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick – Washington (34-18)

Kansas City at Pittsburgh
Line: Steelers by 4

The Chiefs looked good behind new QB Patrick Mahomes in their win against the Bolts last Sunday. The Steelers on the other hand should be embarrassed by their tie over the Browns last Sunday and it would not be in their best interest to go winless after two games.

Smooth’s Pick – Pittsburgh (30-17)

LA Chargers at Buffalo
Line: Bolts by 7

The Bills got smoked against the Ravens and they’re going to go with their heralded rookie Jake Allen against the Bolts who are coming off a home loss. This could get ugly pretty quick, or it could be a surprise run for Buffalo.

Smooth’s Pick – LA Chargers (27-12)

Miami at NY Jets
Line: Gang Green by 3

Sam Darnold looked great in the win against the Lions on Monday night. He makes his home debut against a Dolphins team who survived a marathon win on Sunday. This will be one of those matchups that will determine what direction both teams will go.

Smooth’s Pick – NY Jets (24-17)

Minnesota at Green Bay
Line: Packers by 1½

Aaron Rodgers made a miracle comeback against the Bears. He has another divisional opponent against the Vikings at Lambeau Field. Minnesota picked apart the Niners for three picks. It might not be as easy against Green Bay, but both teams are always tough in this division rivalry.

Smooth’s Pick – Green Bay (24-16)

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
Line: Eagles by 3

The Super Bowl champs were not convincing in their season opener, but a win is a win. They go on the road to take on the Bucs who are in need of their starting QB Jameis Winston. They won’t have him for another two games because of a suspension and that will make the difference.

Smooth’s Pick – Philadelphia (27-14)

Arizona at LA Rams
Line: Rams by 13

The Cardinals were flat, only scoring two field goals in their loss to the Redskins on Sunday. They may get a world of trouble with the Rams, who ripped the Raiders on the road. Look for a vicious blow out.

Smooth’s Pick – LA Rams (37-16)

Detroit at San Francisco
Line: Niners by 6½

Both teams looked horrible in their losses. More so Jimmy Garoffalo, who was picked off last week 3 times. They both look to re-group, and I’d say the Niners look better, slightly.

Smooth’s Pick – San Francisco (33-19)

New England at Jacksonville
Line: Patriots by 1

This is a possible playoff matchup for January. The Jags defense were pretty effective in their win verses the Giants and will test Tom Brady all afternoon. But I think Brady will find a way to get the “W”.

Smooth’s Pick – New England (24-21)

Oakland at Denver
Line: Broncos by 6

Jon Gruden’s return to the Raiders was spoiled last Monday night. They’ll have to take their game to the “Mile High” city for a divisional match up. The Broncos got the win verses the Seahawks and look to go to 2-0.

Smooth’s Pick – Denver (26-17)

NY Giants at Dallas
Line: Cowboys by 3

Big Blue actually looked better at the end of their loss to a better defensive-minded Jags squad. They go into AT&T Stadium with a good change to spoil the home opener against a Cowboys team that looked horrible in their opener with the Panthers.

This is my upset special
Smooth’s Pick – NY Giants (27-16)

Monday, September 17

Seattle at Chicago
Line: Bears by 3

The Seahawks were on the short end of a loss on the road in Denver, they play another road game verses a surprising Bears team that took the Packers to the edge. I like their new defensive scheme and it should keep Russell Wilson pressured all night long.

Smooth’s Pick – Chicago (17-13)

Now with all our picks, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. If you have a gambling problem, then please seek help by going to GamblersAnonymous.org.

 

 

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Week 1 – The 2018 Season Begins!

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Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season is just about to start and Smooth’s NFL Football picks are ready for some action. Some important matchups already with big implications for teams later this fall. Let’s get started!

All odds courtesy of oddsshark.com

Thursday September 6

Atlanta at Philadelphia
Line: Eagles by 3

This is a rematch of the NFC Divisional semi-final from January. The Falcons played hard, but in the end lost to the eventual Super Bowl champions. Even though the line favors the Eagles, the Falcons high powered offense looks to get back to 2016 form. I like the “dirty birds” in this one.

Smooth’s Pick – Atlanta (31-17)

Sunday September 9

Jacksonville at NY Giants
Line: Jags by 3

This is the Jags year, but their run to the Super Bowl may have taken a hit on offense with wide receiver Marquise Lee out for the season. They still with run the ball with RB Leonard Fournette. The Giants completely re-did their O-line. They brought back Eli Manning and drafted Saquon Barkley 2nd overall to get their run game back in line. The key to success is their secondary and with Eli Apple coming back, that’s a huge question mark. But in this game, I lean towards the Jags.

Smooth’s Pick – Jacksonville (23-20)

Buffalo at Baltimore
Line: Ravens by 7

This is gonna be a tough game for Jake Allen for his debut if they do start him. The Ravens defense always tough on young QB’s. The key to the Bills winning is keeping the score low. That was the formula in their playoff run last season. As for the Ravens, QB Joe Flacco needs to stay health all season long. They should be able to handle the Bills secondary.

Smooth’s Pick – Baltimore (24-10)

Cincinnati at Indianapolis
Line: Colts by 3
Not sure I understand this spread. Yes, Andrew Luck is coming back from a season long injury sabbatical. Yes, there’s a new head coach. But despite home field, I’m not quite impressed with the Colts chanses. Marvin Lewis continues to get chance after chance as head coach. But he does have a more stable squad than in previous seasons. I like the Bengals.

This is my upset special!
Smooth’s Pick – Cincinnati (24-21)

Houston at New England
Line: Patriots by 6½

The last time the Texans went into Gillette stadium last season, they shocked the Patriots with a victory last season. DeShaun Watson was outstanding at QB in 6 games until a knee injury ended his season. How he plays this season with a restructured knee is anyone’s guess. But the Patriots won’t be surprised this time around.

Smooth’s Pick – New England (30-17)

Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Line: Steelers by 5½

The Browns look to start fresh after going winless last season. If there’s a chance for an upset you would think this would be it. But the Browns are still rough along the edges with young talent. The Steelers look to continue their domination over the Browns. I think they handle them easy.

Smooth’s Pick – Pittsburgh (34-13)

San Francisco at Minnesota
Line: Vikings by 6

The Niners finished last season strong winning 5 of their last 6 games. Jimmy Garofalo gets a full 16 games to start at QB for the Niners. They get a challenge with a Vikings team that were tough at home all season long and was a game away from the super bowl last year. This will be a compelling game on how the Vikings do with key losses in coaching personnel and new QB Kirk Cousins taking over.

Smooth’s Pick – Minnesota (27-21)

Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Line: Saints by 9½

The Saints are looking for a bounce-back after last season’s last minute loss in the Divisional semi-final. They should be able to handle the Bucs who will be without their starting QB Jameis Winston for three games. This will be tough for them as they’re on the road against a division opponent.

This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick – New Orleans (35-14)

Tennessee at Miami
Line: Titans by 1

The Titans come off their best season since 2008. They look to improve with a healthy Marcus Mariota at QB. The Dolphins are on short time for head coach Adam Gage and QB Ryan Tannehill. They need to get results after two disappointing seasons. This will be a close matchup.

Smooth’s Pick – Tennessee (20-17)

Kansas City at LA Chargers
Line: Bolts by 3

Disappointing ending to the Chiefs last season losing in the AFC Wildcard game after starting 2017 strong. They go with 2nd year pro Patrick Mahomes at QB. They won’t get the benefit of a fast start this time around with the Bolts, as they just barely missed the playoffs themselves.

Smooth’s Pick – LA Chargers (27-20)

Dallas at Carolina
Line: Panthers bv 2½

These are two teams that need this game to a quick start in their seasons. The Cowboys won’t have Jason Whitten, as he retired and they jettisoned Dez Bryant. Dax Prescott is still the QB and he still has a strong O-line. As for the Panthers, Cam Newton is still the guy at QB, but head coach Ron Rivera can’t afford another disappointing loss in the playoffs.

Smooth’s Pick – Carolina (26-18)

Seattle at Denver
Line: Broncos by 3

Big changes for the Seahawks as Richard Sherman and Jimmy Graham are gone, but Russell Wilson still is the key to the Seahawks’ success. For the Broncos, everything went south for them last season after a rough losing streak. I’m predicting a low scoring matchup.

Smooth’s Pick – Denver (17-15)

Washington at Arizona
Line: Pick ‘em

Why, because both teams have major changes. The Cardinals have a new head coach and Washington has a new starting QB in Alex Smith. Both teams had disappointing seasons last year. This looks like a low scoring affair, as well.

Smooth’s Pick – Arizona (18-13)

Chicago at Green Bay
Line: Packers by 8

Aaron Rodgers getting hurt mid-season ruined the Packers chances at another Super Bowl. He is back and so are the Pack, who are heavy favorites in the NFC North. The Bears on the other hand are still regrouping after another 10+ loss season. They acquired Kalil Mack from the Oakland Raiders and he should help on defense. But their offense is still a problem.

Smooth’s Pick – Green Bay (25-16)

Monday September 10

NY Jets at Detroit
Line: Lions by 6½

The Sam Darnold era begins for Gang Green, but I’ll be very surprised if he gets the start on the road verses a very good Lions team who under achieved with the departed, Jim Caldwell. Matt Patricia gets the knod as head coach for the Lions, and the key will be their defense. Matthew Stafford could be an MVP candidate if his offense holds up.

Smooth’s Pick – Detroit (24-17)

LA Rams at Oakland
Line: Rams by 4½

The Rams got off to a quick start last season winning their first 4 games en-route to an 11-5 record and their first division title since moving back to LA. That will be hard feat to repeat with the tougher schedule and starting on the road. Oakland brings back Jon Gruden to coaching after many years on Monday Night Football. He looks to bring back the silver and black to their winning ways. Should be a tough game to end the week.

Smooth’s Pick – LA Rams (21-19)

Now with all of our picks, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. If you have a gambling problem, then please seek help by going to gamblers anonymous dot org.

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Smooth’s NFL Football Picks – Super Bowl 52 Prediction

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After 6 months and 544 games, it’s down to the final two teams for the Vince Lombardi Trophy. For one team, it’s a chance to cement their legacy as one of the greatest teams in NFL history. For the other, it’s a chance to break nearly 60 years of heart break. Here’s our final edition of smooth’s NFL football picks for the season.

All odds courtesy of oddsshark.com

Sunday February 4th
Super Bowl 52
US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis
New England vs. Philadelphia
Line: Patriots by 4½

The line on this game keeps getting lower. Probably because they saw the Eagles destroying Minnesota as a sign that they could give the Patriots a run for their money. That includes New England’s come from behind victory against Jacksonville.

We’re gonna take a look at both teams starting head to head with the Offense. New England gets the edge with total yards per game, they were #1 in the league. But when it comes to points, it’s pretty much even at 28 per game this season. The Pats get the edge in the passing game, the Eagles the edge in the rushing game.


QB – The edge goes to Tom Brady. Now in his 17th season, he has had his share of success in the big game, 5 times to be exact, minus a couple of Giants losses. For Nick Foles, he’s in relief for Carson Wentz and so far, he’s kept the Eagles out of trouble in all of his starts. In last week’s win against the Vikings, he was spectacular, throwing for 3 TD’s.

Advantage – new-england-patriots-logo-transparent.png


RB – The edge goes to the Eagles. Jay Adjai acquired mid-season from Miami gave them a distinctive run game, rushing for 408 yards. LeGarrette Blount is their bruising red zone back. He leads the team with 766 yards rushing. Corey Clement gives them options on rushing or passing with 6 TD this season. The Patriots have Dion Lewis, who rushed for nearly 900 yards this season and 6 TD’s. Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead have 5 TD’s each between them.

Advantage –


Receivers – The Patriots have the big edge. Tight end Rob Gronkowski is THE go-to guy for Brady and leads the team with 8 TD’s and over 1,000 yards on the season. Brandin Cooks, the free agent pick up from the Saints went over 1,000 receiving yards as well and grabbed 7 TD’s. Danny Amendola, James White and Chris Hogan are the other options at receiving. The Eagles receivers are led by Zach Ertyz, who had over 800 yards and 8 TD’s. Nelson Ag-holor and Alshon Jeffrey each had over 750 yards receiving, with Jeffrey grabbing 9 TD’s to lead the team and Agholor with 8. Torrey Smith and Trey Burton and Brent Celek are the other go-to guys at receiver.

Advantage – new-england-patriots-logo-transparent.png


Offensive Line – Both teams have allowed few sacks to their Quarterbacks. The Eagles front four were able to get their offense 338 total first downs on the season with over 5,800 total offensive yards. The Patriots O-line was better, with over 389 total first downs and over 6,300 total offensive yards on the season, giving New England the edge in this category.

Advantage – new-england-patriots-logo-transparent.png

Switching to Defense, the Eagles have the edge allowing only 306.5 total yards per game to the Patriots 366 yards allowed. Philadelphia leads in both passing yards allowed, rushing yards allowed and third down conversions allowed. However, looking in-between the lines, both teams allowed only 18 points per game.


Defensive Line – The Patriots run a 4-3 offensive scheme, with Defensive end Trey Flowers leading the way with 6½ sacks on the year. Eric Lee is the other defensive end, with Malcom Brown and Lawrence Guy inside at tackle. The line accounted for 13 ½ sacks on the season. The Eagles run a 4-3 scheme, as well, with Brandon Graham leading the way with 9½ sacks on the season. Vinny Curry is the other Defensive end, with Fletcher cox and Timmy Jernigan inside at tackle. The eagles front four have over 25 sacks among them. Give them the slight edge.

Advantage –


Linebackers – The big guys in-between for the Eagles are Nigel Bradham, Dannell Ellerbe and Mychal Kendricks with Najee Good and Kamu Grugier-Hill as backups. Bradham leads the team in tackles with 88 on the season. Kendricks not too far behind at 73. The Patriots linebackers are Kyle Van Noy, David Harris and Elandon Roberts, with Marquis Flowers and Nicholas Grigsby as backups. Van Noy is second on the team with 5½ sacks. Both squads are pretty much even.

Advantage – Even


Secondary – The Eagles are top heavy in the defensive backfield, with Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby at the corners, Malcolm Jenkins and Rodney McLeod playing safeties. Patrick Robinson leads the team with 4 interceptions coming off the bench. The Patriots safeties, Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty leads the team in Tackles. Former Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore survey the cornerback positions. Duron Harmon leads the team with 4 Interceptions on the season. Call it even.

Advantage – Even


Special Teams – Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski has only missed 3 extra points and was 4-4 from 50+ yards. Punter Ryan Allen has a 43.4 average with 8 inside 10 yards. Dion Lewis is their Kick Returner, he ran a 103 yard kick off for a TD this season. The Eagles Jake Elliott had a 61 yard game winning field goal against the Giants earlier this year. He was 5-6 from 50 yards out, but overall was 83.9 percent on the season. Kenjon Barner takes both Punts and Kicks. My money is on the Patriots in that category.

Advantage – new-england-patriots-logo-transparent.png


Coaches – What hasn’t been said about Bill Belichek? Now in his 17th season, he’s going for his 6th Super Bowl ring, his 8th in his coaching career. Some have accused him of cheating to get where he is. But overall, you have to admire how he’s able to bring it together when the going gets rough. As for 2nd year coach, Doug Peterson, No one expected the Eagles to come together this quickly. But the nucleus was there from the Chip Kelly days and he was at the right place at the right time. However, give the advantage to experience and the Patriots.

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Intangibles – Philadelphia has the Liberty Bell, Rocky, Independence Hall and of course, Cheese Steak sandwiches. Boston also is rich in American History, with the Boston Harbor, Bunker Hill, Fenway Park and of course, New England Clam Chowder. Let’s call it even.

Advantage – Even

Final Analysis – So here’s our prediction. This game is much closer than everyone expected. Both teams have outstanding defenses and pretty potent offenses. The wild card in all of this is Eagles QB Nick Foles. He started off slow in four of his five starts. He finally broke it open, taking apart a weakened Minnesota defense, which was supposed to be the best in the NFL. If he has the same game this weekend, watch out. New England has been the luckiest team in Super Bowls. We all know what happened last time they were down. If Tom Brady can continue to show his magic, there no question he’ll have a chance to tie a Super Bowl Mark with 6 wins with a victory. I like Brady’s chances.

Smooth’s pick – New England (24-16)
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Now with all of our picks, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. If you have a gambling problem, then please seek help by going to gamblers anonymous dot org.

And that is our Super Bowl Pick for Smooth NFL Picks for this season. Thanks for joining us all season long. We hope to see you again in September.

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AFC/NFC Championship Weekend – 2018

 

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Championship weekend is upon us. Looking back at last September’s predictions, we got 1 team out of 4 correct on who would make it this far, the New England Patriots. The other three well, at least two of them were surprises. Two intriguing matchups will make Super Bowl 52 an exciting game two weeks from now.

Last week, we were 2-2 head to head, against the spread we were 1-3

All odds courtesy of Oddsshark.com

Sunday, January 21

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Jacksonville at New England
Line: Patriots by 8½

The Jags completely manhandled an ill-prepared Pittsburgh Steelers team last weekend. QB Blake Bortles basically stayed out of trouble throwing for 214 yards passing and a TD. Leonard Fournette rushed for 109 yards and 3 TD’s. They play in their third AFC championship game, this time against the Patriots, who are in their 7th AFC Final in 7 years. They easily disposed of Tennessee, with Tom Brady throwing for 337 yards passing and three TD’s. Historically, the Patriots have owned the Jags with a 10-1 record. Jacksonville’s last win against the Patriots was during Wildcard Weekend in 1999. Some writers are calling this an easy path for New England, but there are some warning signs. Tom Brady was let up in practice after he jammed his hand. X-rays were negative. Jacksonville’s vice-president of football operations is a familiar face to Patriots fans. Tom Coughlin was the head coach during the Giants Super Bowl wins against Tom Brady and the Patriots, and I’m sure he’s giving his head coach Doug Marrone some scouting on New England. The Jags defense is built similar to those Giants Super Bowl teams. The big difference in this game is how Blake Bortles plays. He is no Eli Manning. If the Jags offense can keep the ball away from Tom Brady, Jacksonville has a chance to win. But the Patriots are just too good to go against at home.

Smooth’s Pick – New England (21-16)

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Minnesota at Philadelphia
Line: Vikings by 3

The Eagles have bent, but haven’t broken. They’ve found ways to win the last 3 out of 4 games. They escaped against Atlanta last weekend with the help of the defense. They were able to shut down Matt Ryan and his high powered offense. But now they have a bigger foe this weekend. The Vikings offense is way more powerful than the Falcons. And even though they almost blew it last weekend verses New Orleans, they still have the advantage. Historically, this series is tied at 13 games apiece. Their last meeting was in 2016, where the Eagles were victorious during the regular season. Philly are also 3-0 in the playoffs against Minnesota. If the Eagles are going to win this game, they’re going to have to score some points. 15 is not enough points for them to win, even if their defense plays well. Nick Foles needs to connect with Alston Jeffrey often. Once that’s done the Eagles defense can go to work. Vikings QB Case Keenum has excelled this season and looks for a payday in the off season if he goes to the Super Bowl. A win and Minnesota gets the first home game in Super Bowl history.

Smooth’s Pick – Minnesota (24-18)

Now with all of our picks, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. If you have a gambling problem, then please seek help by going to GamblersAnonymous.org.

And that’s our conference championship picks here at smooth’s NFL football picks. Join us on February 1st for our final edition. We’ll have in depth analysis on both winners from this weekend’s games.

We’ll see you later!

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Smooth’s NFL Football Divisional Playoff Picks 2018

 

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The Divisional playoffs brings the top two teams of each conference into the mix verses the winners of wildcard weekend.

Last week, we were 3-1 head to head, 2-2 against the spread.

All Odds courtesy of Oddsshark.com

Saturday, January 13

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Atlanta at Philadelphia
Line: Falcons by 3

The Falcons did what they had to do in LA to dominate the Rams and send them packing for the off-season. Now they travel to Philadelphia where the line on this game favors the “Dirty Birds” for one reason. The Eagles offense issues at the end of the season put them with a question mark when QB Carson Wentz was lost for the season due to injury. He threw for 3,200 yards with 33 TD’s, only 7 INT’s and a QB rating of 101.7. By comparison, back up QB Nick Foles has a 79.5 QB rating with 5 TD’s and 2 interceptions in three games. The Eagles were a pass heavy team with Alshon Jeffrey leading the team with 9 TD receptions. On defense, Philly had 38 sacks with defensive end Brandon Graham leading the way with 9 ½ sacks. Patrick Robinson leads the team with 4 interceptions on the year. If the Eagles are going to win this game, they’re going to need to get their offense going. They have the edge slightly on defense, so its gonna have to be all hands on deck. But I give the match-up to the “Dirty Birds”.

Smooth’s Pick – Atlanta (24-21)

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Tennessee at New England
Line: Patriots by 13½

The Titans pulled off an incredible comeback against Kansas City last weekend, and now they’ll have to play the same type of game against a tougher opponent in the Patriots. What can you say that hasn’t been said about New England? This team finds ways to win, and in the post season, that’s no exception, except with Eli Manning and the Giants, of course. Tom Brady at the age of 40 is probably better than he’s ever beenin his career, throwing for over 4,500 yards, 32 TD’s and only 8 interceptions. Rob Gronkowski and Brandon Cooks each had over a 1,000 yards receiving for the year. On defense, defensive end Trey Flowers leads the team with 6.5 sacks. The Patriots had 42 sacks overall on the season. Duron Harmon snagged 4 interceptions to lead the team. If you look at this matchup, the Patriots completely dominate the Titans. They have double the offensive total yards, they’ve scored more points than the Titans and they’ve allowed less points on defense. That would make this pick a ‘no-brainer.”

Smooth’s Pick – New England (35-10)

 

Sunday, January 14

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Jacksonville at Pittsburgh
Line: Steelers by 7½

The Steelers begin their quest towards an unprecedented 7th Super Bowl title. They have Ben Rothlisberger who has two of those wins. “Big Ben” threw for 4,200 yards and 28 TD’s, but he also threw 14 interceptions on the year. LeVeon Bell was the primary rusher on the team with nearly 1,300 yards and 9 TD’s. Antonio Brown led the team with 101 receptions on the year, over 1,500 yards and 9 TD’s. The Steelers defense dominated the league with 56 sacks on the year, 12 of those from defensive Cameron Heyward. Sean Davis and Ryan Shazier tied the team with 3 Interceptions, with Shazier out for the season and maybe his career with a spinal injury. The Jags were able to win an ugly game at home against Buffalo last weekend. But their issue now is trying to score points against the Steelers defense. If you look at the offensive comparison between the two teams, the Jags actually have an edge, having scored 26 points to the Steelers 25 points on the year. The Jags have also allowed less points on the year than the Steelers and that gives them a chance. However…

Smooth’s Pick – Pittsburgh (27-20)

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New Orleans at Minnesota
Line: Vikings by 4½

The Vikings have a chance to host a Super Bowl in their own house. But in order to do so they need to win the next two games, a not so easy task. Minnesota was able to overcome their QB issues with Case Keenum at the helm of the offense. Keenum has led the team to 13 wins, a franchise record. He threw for over 3,500 yards 22 TD’s and threw only 7 interceptions. Wide receiver Adam Thielen led the team with over 1,200 yards and 4 TD’s. Latavius Murray was the right free agent to take over for Adrian Peterson, rushing for 842 yards and 8 TD’s. The defense of the Vikings has been the story of this season. They lead the league in total yards allowed with only 275 per game and only allowed 15 points per game for the season. Defensive end Everson Griffen leads the team with 13 sacks on the year. Safety Harrison Smith leads the team with 5 interceptions. The Saints will have their hands full. They barely held on at home against Carolina and won. Drew Brees will need to be next to perfect in this game, otherwise it will be a long day for the Saints. Look for the Vikings to dominate this game.

Smooth’s Pick – Minnesota (33-16)

Now with all of our picks, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. If you have a gambling problem, then please seek help by going to gamblersanonymous.org.