Week 5 and in the last 4 weeks, the league has seen 6 games go into overtime, three just last weekend. Of those 6, two ended in ties, and some NFL bloggers are calling for a change to the overtime rules, preferably to rules similar to college football where eventually, there will be a winner. But we say, “Not so fast”. How often do we get these overtime games that end with a tie? Not very often. The system as it works right now is fine as it is, and it adds to the drama at the end of the season, when that tie could prevent teams from making the playoffs. Too much overreacting, if you ask me.
Last Week’s Results
Head to Head: 8-7
Against The Spread: 5-7-3
Season to Date
Head to Head: 36-25-2
Against The Spread: 26-25-12
All odds courtesy of Oddsshark.com
Bye Week Teams: Chicago, Tampa Bay
Thursday, October 4th
Indianapolis at New England
Line: Patriots by 10
Tom Brady and the Patriots got back to normal, as they crushed Miami last weekend. Now a quick turnaround, as they play the Colts at Foxborough. The Colts had a disappointing overtime loss to the Texans. It will be a harder task for them against a tougher Patriots team.
Smooth’s Pick – New England (34-21)
Sunday, October 7th
Tennessee at Buffalo
Line: Titans by 3½
The Titans pulled off the upset in OT against Philadelphia and put them in the driver’s seat in the AFC South. They travel to Western New York to take on the Bills, who are still stinging from being shut out in Green Bay. They’re still tough at home and should give the Titans a challenge.
Smooth’s Pick – Tennessee (17-12)
Atlanta at Pittsburgh
Line: Steelers by 3
The Falcons were shocked with a last second loss to Cincinnati last Sunday. Now they have a must win situation against a Pittsburgh team who are also in a must win after their poor showing against Baltimore. One of these teams are going to be hurting by the time Sunday is over.
Smooth’s Pick – Pittsburgh (28-24)
Denver at NY Jets
Line: NY Jets by 1
Tough loss for the Broncos on Monday night against Kansas City. They travel to the Meadowlands to take on a Jets team that have lost three straight. Gang Green is still looking to get their offense going after falling to the Jags last Sunday. This is close to a pick ‘em game.
Smooth’s Pick – Denver (22-19)
Jacksonville at Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 3
The Chiefs pulled off an outstanding comeback in Denver. They travel home to take on a Jags team who stomped the Jets last weekend. This is will be a tough task for them, as KC is tough to beat at home. The defense will be the big key for both teams.
Smooth’s Pick – Kansas City (21-18)
Green Bay at Detroit
Line: Packers by 1½
Even though the Packers shut out the Bills last Sunday, QB Aaron Rodgers was a bit annoyed by his offense. They travel to the Motor City to take on a Lions team that had a heartbreaking loss to Dallas. No sense crying about it. This divisional rivalry is going to be tough, as always.
Smooth’s Pick – Green Bay (24-21)
Baltimore at Cleveland
Line: Ravens by 3
The Ravens take charge in the AFC North with a victory over Pittsburgh last weekend. They travel to Cleveland to take on a Browns team that have finally become competitive. They lost to Oakland by the skin of their teeth, and will be looking to get back in the win column.
This is my upset special!
Smooth’s Pick – Cleveland (19-17)
NY Giants at Carolina
Line: Panthers by 7
Big Blue is having offense problems. They couldn’t get going against New Orleans last weekend, and now have to take on a tougher defense with the Panthers. Carolina is coming off a bye week, so they’ll be refreshed.
Smooth’s Pick – Carolina (27-16)
Miami at Cincinnati
Line: Bengals by 6
The Dolphins came down to earth with a crushing defeat against New England. They must now travel to Cincinnati, where the Bengals look as improving on their 3-1 record. Not many have picked them to be this good, but they are on the move.
Smooth’s Pick – Cincinnati (31-19)
Oakland at LA Chargers
Line: Bolts by 5½
The Raiders finally got in the win column with a narrow victory over the Browns last weekend. The travel south to take on the Bolts, who held on to beat the Niners. This divisional match with be tough and fierce. Look for a big game from Philip Rivers on Sunday.
This is my lock!
Smooth’s Pick – LA Chargers (33-14)
Arizona at San Francisco
Line: Niners by 4
The Cardinals are losers of four straight after their loss to Seattle last weekend. Now they have travel north to the bay area, where the Niners surprised the Chargers with a near-comeback. This will be tough going for the Cardinals, but they should make it interesting at the end.
Smooth’s Pick – San Francisco (23-21)
Minnesota at Philadelphia
Line: Eagles by 3
This is a rematch of January’s NFC Championship game, where the Eagles went on to win and take the Super Bowl. This game will be different. The Eagles are still stinging from an overtime loss to Tennessee. The Vikings had a rough go against the Rams. The extra days of rest favor them.
Smooth’s Pick – Minnesota (20-16)
LA Rams at Seattle
Line: Rams by 7
This is the toughest test for the Rams, as they take on their division rival. Their unbeaten streak is on the line as they face a Seahawks team that won a tough game against the Cardinals. Biggest factor will be the 12th man at Century Link Park. Can they be a factor?
Smooth’s Pick – Seattle (24-21)
Dallas at Houston
Line: Texans by 3½
The Sunday night game will be an interstate rivalry. The Cowboys got a much needed win verses Detroit last Sunday. They travel south to take on a Texans team that is riding high after their first win of the season verses Indianapolis. Both teams look to keep their momentum going.
Smooth’s Pick – Dallas (23-20)
Monday, October 8th
Washington at New Orleans
Line: Saints by 6½
The Redskins are coming off a bye week. They take on a Saints team that wore down a weakened Giants offense. This will be a tough task, as the Redskins will be more refreshed. But the Superdome will always make it hard for opponents to play well.
Smooth’s Pick – New Orleans (30-24)
Now with all our picks, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. If you have a gambling problem, then please seek help by going to GamblersAnonymous.org